The costs associated with devolving Iraq into three semiautonomous
regions with loose central control would be too high. Because Iraq's
population is not neatly separated, regional boundaries cannot be easily
drawn. All eighteen Iraqi provinces have mixed populations, as do
Baghdad and most other major cities in Iraq. A rapid devolution could
result in mass population movements, collapse of the Iraqi security
forces, strengthening of militias, ethnic cleansing, destabilization
of neighboring states, or attempts by neighboring states to dominate
Iraqi regions. Iraqis, particularly Sunni Arabs, told us that such a
division would confirm wider fears across the Arab world that the
United States invaded Iraq to weaken a strong Arab state.
While such devolution is a possible consequence of continued
instability in Iraq, we do not believe the United States should
support this course as a policy goal or impose this outcome on the
Iraqi state. If events were to move irreversibly in this direction,
the United States should manage the situation to ameliorate
humanitarian consequences, contain the spread of violence, and
minimize regional instability. The United States should support as
much as possible central control by governmental authorities in
Baghdad, particularly on the question of oil revenues.