Because of the importance of Iraq, the potential for catastrophe, and
the role and commitments of the United States in initiating events
that have led to the current situation, we believe it would be wrong
for the United States to abandon the country through a precipitate
withdrawal of troops and support. A premature American departure from
Iraq would almost certainly produce greater sectarian violence and
further deterioration of conditions, leading to a number of the
adverse consequences outlined above. The near-term results would be a
significant power vacuum, greater human suffering, regional
destabilization, and a threat to the global economy. Al Qaeda would
depict our withdrawal as a historic victory. If we leave and Iraq
descends into chaos, the long-range consequences could eventually
require the United States to return.