IRAN. Of all the neighbors, Iran has the most leverage in Iraq. Iran
has long-standing ties to many Iraqi Shia politicians, many of whom
were exiled to Iran during the Saddam Hussein regime. Iran has
provided arms, financial support, and training for Shiite militias
within Iraq, as well as political support for Shia parties. There are
also reports that Iran has supplied improvised explosive devices to
groups--including Sunni Arab insurgents--that attack U.S. forces. The
Iranian border with Iraq is porous, and millions of Iranians travel to
Iraq each year to visit Shia holy sites. Many Iraqis spoke of Iranian
meddling, and Sunnis took a particularly alarmist view. One leading
Sunni politician told us, "If you turn over any stone in Iraq today,
you will find Iran underneath."
U.S., Iraqi, and international officials also commented on the range
of tensions between the United States and Iran, including Iran's
nuclear program, Iran's support for terrorism, Iran's influence in
Lebanon and the region, and Iran's influence in Iraq. Iran appears
content for the U.S. military to be tied down in Iraq, a position that
limits U.S. options in addressing Iran's nuclear program and allows
Iran leverage over stability in Iraq. Proposed talks between Iran and
the United States about the situation in Iraq have not taken place.
One Iraqi official told us: "Iran is negotiating with the United
States in the streets of Baghdad."
SYRIA. Syria is also playing a counterproductive role. Iraqis are
upset about what they perceive as Syrian support for efforts to
undermine the Iraqi government. The Syrian role is not so much to take
active measures as to countenance malign neglect: the Syrians look the
other way as arms and foreign fighters flow across their border into
Iraq, and former Baathist leaders find a safe haven within Syria. Like
Iran, Syria is content to see the United States tied down in Iraq.
That said, the Syrians have indicated that they want a dialogue with
the United States, and in November 2006 agreed to restore diplomatic
relations with Iraq after a 24-year break.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE GULF STATES. These countries for the most part
have been passive and disengaged. They have declined to provide debt
relief or substantial economic assistance to the Iraqi government.
Several Iraqi Sunni Arab politicians complained that Saudi Arabia has
not provided political support for their fellow Sunnis within Iraq.
One observed that Saudi Arabia did not even send a letter when the
Iraqi government was formed, whereas Iran has an ambassador in Iraq.
Funding for the Sunni insurgency comes from private individuals within
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, even as those governments help
facilitate U.S. military operations in Iraq by providing basing and
overflight rights and by cooperating on intelligence issues.
As worries about Iraq increase, the Gulf States are becoming more
active. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have hosted meetings in
support of the International Compact. Saudi Arabia recently took the
positive step of hosting a conference of Iraqi religious leaders in
Mecca. Several Gulf States have helped foster dialogue with Iraq's
Sunni Arab population. While the Gulf States are not proponents of
democracy in Iraq, they worry about the direction of events:
battle-hardened insurgents from Iraq could pose a threat to their own
internal stability, and the growth of Iranian influence in the region
is deeply troubling to them.
TURKEY. Turkish policy toward Iraq is focused on discouraging Kurdish
nationalism, which is seen as an existential threat to Turkey's own
internal stability. The Turks have supported the Turkmen minority
within Iraq and have used their influence to try to block the
incorporation of Kirkuk into Iraqi Kurdistan. At the same time,
Turkish companies have invested in Kurdish areas in northern Iraq, and
Turkish and Kurdish leaders have sought constructive engagement on
political, security, and economic issues.
The Turks are deeply concerned about the operations of the Kurdish
Workers Party (PKK)--a terrorist group based in northern Iraq that has
killed thousands of Turks. They are upset that the United States and
Iraq have not targeted the PKK more aggressively. The Turks have
threatened to go after the PKK themselves, and have made several
forays across the border into Iraq.
JORDAN AND EGYPT. Both Jordan and Egypt have provided some assistance
for the Iraqi government. Jordan has trained thousands of Iraqi
police, has an ambassador in Baghdad, and King Abdullah recently
hosted a meeting in Amman between President Bush and Prime Minister
Maliki. Egypt has provided some limited Iraqi army training. Both
Jordan and Egypt have facilitated U.S. military operations--Jordan by
allowing overflight and search-and-rescue operations, Egypt by
allowing overflight and Suez Canal transits; both provide important
cooperation on intelligence. Jordan is currently home to 700,000 Iraqi
refugees (equal to 10 percent of its population) and fears a flood of
many more. Both Jordan and Egypt are concerned about the position of
Iraq's Sunni Arabs and want constitutional reforms in Iraq to bolster
the Sunni community. They also fear the return of insurgents to their
countries.