NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. Prime Minister Maliki outlined a commendable
program of national reconciliation soon after he entered office.
However, the Iraqi government has not taken action on the key elements
of national reconciliation: revising de-Baathification, which prevents
many Sunni Arabs from participating in governance and society;
providing amnesty for those who have fought against the government;
sharing the country's oil revenues; demobilizing militias; amending
the constitution; and settling the future of Kirkuk.
One core issue is federalism. The Iraqi Constitution, which created a
largely autonomous Kurdistan region, allows other such regions to be
established later, perhaps including a "Shi'astan" comprising nine
southern provinces. This highly decentralized structure is favored by
the Kurds and many Shia (particularly supporters of Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim), but it is anathema to Sunnis. First, Sunni Arabs are generally
Iraqi nationalists, albeit within the context of an Iraq they believe
they should govern. Second, because Iraq's energy resources are in the
Kurdish and Shia regions, there is no economically feasible "Sunni
region." Particularly contentious is a provision in the constitution
that shares revenues nationally from current oil reserves, while
allowing revenues from reserves discovered in the future to go to the
regions.
The Sunnis did not actively participate in the constitution-drafting
process, and acceded to entering the government only on the condition
that the constitution be amended. In September, the parliament agreed
to initiate a constitutional review commission slated to complete its
work within one year; it delayed considering the question of forming a
federalized region in southern Iraq for eighteen months.
Another key unresolved issue is the future of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city
in northern Iraq that is home to substantial numbers of Kurds, Arabs,
and Turkmen. The Kurds insisted that the constitution require a
popular referendum by December 2007 to determine whether Kirkuk can
formally join the Kurdish administered region, an outcome that Arabs
and Turkmen in Kirkuk staunchly oppose. The risks of further violence
sparked by a Kirkuk referendum are great.
Iraq's leaders often claim that they do not want a division of the
country, but we found that key Shia and Kurdish leaders have little
commitment to national reconciliation. One prominent Shia leader told
us pointedly that the current government has the support of 80 percent
of the population, notably excluding Sunni Arabs. Kurds have fought
for independence for decades, and when our Study Group visited Iraq,
the leader of the Kurdish region ordered the lowering of Iraqi flags
and the raising of Kurdish flags. One senior American general
commented that the Iraqis "still do not know what kind of country they
want to have." Yet many of Iraq's most powerful and well-positioned
leaders are not working toward a united Iraq.
SECURITY. The security situation cannot improve unless leaders act in
support of national reconciliation. Shiite leaders must make the
decision to demobilize militias. Sunni Arabs must make the decision to
seek their aims through a peaceful political process, not through
violent revolt. The Iraqi government and Sunni Arab tribes must
aggressively pursue al Qaeda.
Militias are currently seen as legitimate vehicles of political
action. Shia political leaders make distinctions between the Sunni
insurgency (which seeks to overthrow the government) and Shia militias
(which are used to fight Sunnis, secure neighborhoods, and maximize
power within the government). Though Prime Minister Maliki has said he
will address the problem of militias, he has taken little meaningful
action to curb their influence. He owes his office in large part to
Sadr and has shown little willingness to take on him or his Mahdi
Army.
Sunni Arabs have not made the strategic decision to abandon violent
insurgency in favor of the political process. Sunni politicians within
the government have a limited level of support and influence among
their own population, and questionable influence over the insurgency.
Insurgents wage a campaign of intimidation against Sunni
leaders--assassinating the family members of those who do participate in
the government. Too often, insurgents tolerate and cooperate with al
Qaeda, as they share a mutual interest in attacking U.S. and Shia
forces. However, Sunni Arab tribal leaders in Anbar province recently
took the positive step of agreeing to pursue al Qaeda and foreign
fighters in their midst, and have started to take action on those
commitments.
Sunni politicians told us that the U.S. military has to take on the
militias; Shia politicians told us that the U.S. military has to help
them take out the Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda. Each side watches the
other. Sunni insurgents will not lay down arms unless the Shia
militias are disarmed. Shia militias will not disarm until the Sunni
insurgency is destroyed. To put it simply: there are many armed groups
within Iraq, and very little will to lay down arms.
GOVERNANCE. The Iraqi government is not effectively providing its
people with basic services: electricity, drinking water, sewage,
health care, and education. In many sectors, production is below or
hovers around prewar levels. In Baghdad and other unstable areas, the
situation is much worse. There are five major reasons for this
problem.
First, the government sometimes provides services on a sectarian
basis. For example, in one Sunni neighborhood of Shia-governed
Baghdad, there is less than two hours of electricity each day and
trash piles are waist-high. One American official told us that Baghdad
is run like a "Shia dictatorship" because Sunnis boycotted provincial
elections in 2005, and therefore are not represented in local
government.
Second, security is lacking. Insurgents target key infrastructure. For
instance, electricity transmission towers are downed by explosives,
and then sniper attacks prevent repairs from being made.
Third, corruption is rampant. One senior Iraqi official estimated that
official corruption costs Iraq $5-7 billion per year. Notable steps
have been taken: Iraq has a functioning audit board and inspectors
general in the ministries, and senior leaders including the Prime
Minister have identified rooting out corruption as a national
priority. But too many political leaders still pursue their personal,
sectarian, or party interests. There are still no examples of senior
officials who have been brought before a court of law and convicted on
corruption charges.
Fourth, capacity is inadequate. Most of Iraq's technocratic class was
pushed out of the government as part of de-Baathification. Other
skilled Iraqis have fled the country as violence has risen. Too often,
Iraq's elected representatives treat the ministries as political
spoils. Many ministries can do little more than pay salaries, spending
as little as 10-15 percent of their capital budget. They lack
technical expertise and suffer from corruption, inefficiency, a
banking system that does not permit the transfer of moneys, extensive
red tape put in place in part to deter corruption, and a Ministry of
Finance reluctant to disburse funds.
Fifth, the judiciary is weak. Much has been done to establish an Iraqi
judiciary, including a supreme court, and Iraq has some dedicated
judges. But criminal investigations are conducted by magistrates, and
they are too few and inadequately trained to perform this function.
Intimidation of the Iraqi judiciary has been ruthless. As one senior
U.S. official said to us, "We can protect judges, but not their
families, their extended families, their friends." Many Iraqis feel
that crime not only is unpunished, it is rewarded.