The U.S. deals primarily with the Iraqi government, but the most
powerful Shia figures in Iraq do not hold national office. Of the
following three vital power brokers in the Shia community, the United
States is unable to talk directly with one (Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani) and does not talk to another (Moqtada al-Sadr).
GRAND AYATOLLAH ALI AL-SISTANI: Sistani is the leading Shiite cleric
in Iraq. Despite staying out of day-to-day politics, he has been the
most influential leader in the country: all major Shia leaders have
sought his approval or guidance. Sistani has encouraged a unified Shia
bloc with moderated aims within a unified Iraq. Sistani's influence
may be waning, as his words have not succeeded in preventing
intra-Shia violence or retaliation against Sunnis.
ABDUL AZIZ AL-HAKIM: Hakim is a cleric and the leader of the Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the largest and
most organized Shia political party. It seeks the creation of an
autonomous Shia region comprising nine provinces in the south. Hakim
has consistently protected and advanced his party's position. SCIRI
has close ties with Iran.
MOQTADA AL-SADR: Sadr has a large following among impoverished Shia,
particularly in Baghdad. He has joined Maliki's governing coalition,
but his Mahdi Army has clashed with the Badr Brigades, as well as with
Iraqi, U.S., and U.K. forces. Sadr claims to be an Iraqi nationalist.
Several observers remarked to us that Sadr was following the model of
Hezbollah in Lebanon: building a political party that controls basic
services within the government and an armed militia outside of the
government.
Sunni Arabs feel displaced because of the loss of their traditional
position of power in Iraq. They are torn, unsure whether to seek their
aims through political participation or through violent insurgency.
They remain angry about U.S. decisions to dissolve Iraqi security
forces and to pursue the "de-Baathification" of Iraq's government and
society. Sunnis are confronted by paradoxes: they have opposed the
presence of U.S. forces in Iraq but need those forces to protect them
against Shia militias; they chafe at being governed by a majority Shia
administration but reject a federal, decentralized Iraq and do not see
a Sunni autonomous region as feasible for themselves.