Violence is increasing in scope, complexity, and lethality. There are
multiple sources of violence in Iraq: the Sunni Arab insurgency, al
Qaeda and affiliated jihadist groups, Shiite militias and death
squads, and organized criminality. Sectarian violence--particularly in
and around Baghdad--has become the principal challenge to stability.
Most attacks on Americans still come from the Sunni Arab insurgency.
The insurgency comprises former elements of the Saddam Hussein regime,
disaffected Sunni Arab Iraqis, and common criminals. It has
significant support within the Sunni Arab community. The insurgency
has no single leadership but is a network of networks. It benefits
from participants' detailed knowledge of Iraq's infrastructure, and
arms and financing are supplied primarily from within Iraq. The
insurgents have different goals, although nearly all oppose the
presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. Most wish to restore Sunni Arab rule
in the country. Some aim at winning local power and control.
Al Qaeda is responsible for a small portion of the violence in Iraq,
but that includes some of the more spectacular acts: suicide attacks,
large truck bombs, and attacks on significant religious or political
targets. Al Qaeda in Iraq is now largely Iraqi-run and composed of
Sunni Arabs. Foreign fighters--numbering an estimated 1,300--play a
supporting role or carry out suicide operations. Al Qaeda's goals
include instigating a wider sectarian war between Iraq's Sunni and
Shia, and driving the United States out of Iraq.
Sectarian violence causes the largest number of Iraqi civilian
casualties. Iraq is in the grip of a deadly cycle: Sunni insurgent
attacks spark large-scale Shia reprisals, and vice versa. Groups of
Iraqis are often found bound and executed, their bodies dumped in
rivers or fields. The perception of unchecked violence emboldens
militias, shakes confidence in the government, and leads Iraqis to
flee to places where their sect is the majority and where they feel
they are in less danger. In some parts of Iraq--notably in
Baghdad--sectarian cleansing is taking place. The United Nations
estimates that 1.6 million are displaced within Iraq, and up to 1.8
million Iraqis have fled the country.
Shiite militias engaging in sectarian violence pose a substantial
threat to immediate and long-term stability. These militias are
diverse. Some are affiliated with the government, some are highly
localized, and some are wholly outside the law. They are fragmenting,
with an increasing breakdown in command structure. The militias target
Sunni Arab civilians, and some struggle for power in clashes with one
another. Some even target government ministries. They undermine the
authority of the Iraqi government and security forces, as well as the
ability of Sunnis to join a peaceful political process. The prevalence
of militias sends a powerful message: political leaders can preserve
and expand their power only if backed by armed force.
The Mahdi Army, led by Moqtada al-Sadr, may number as many as 60,000
fighters. It has directly challenged U.S. and Iraqi government forces,
and it is widely believed to engage in regular violence against Sunni
Arab civilians. Mahdi fighters patrol certain Shia enclaves, notably
northeast Baghdad's teeming neighborhood of 2.5 million known as "Sadr
City." As the Mahdi Army has grown in size and influence, some
elements have moved beyond Sadr's control.
The Badr Brigade is affiliated with the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which is led by Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim. The Badr Brigade has long-standing ties with the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps. Many Badr members have become integrated
into the Iraqi police, and others play policing roles in southern
Iraqi cities. While wearing the uniform of the security services, Badr
fighters have targeted Sunni Arab civilians. Badr fighters have also
clashed with the Mahdi Army, particularly in southern Iraq.
Criminality also makes daily life unbearable for many Iraqis.
Robberies, kidnappings, and murder are commonplace in much of the
country. Organized criminal rackets thrive, particularly in unstable
areas like Anbar province. Some criminal gangs cooperate with,
finance, or purport to be part of the Sunni insurgency or a Shiite
militia in order to gain legitimacy. As one knowledgeable American
official put it, "If there were foreign forces in New Jersey, Tony
Soprano would be an insurgent leader."
Four of Iraq's eighteen provinces are highly insecure--Baghdad, Anbar,
Diyala, and Salah ad Din. These provinces account for about 40 percent
of Iraq's population of 26 million. In Baghdad, the violence is
largely between Sunni and Shia. In Anbar, the violence is attributable
to the Sunni insurgency and to al Qaeda, and the situation is
deteriorating.
In Kirkuk, the struggle is between Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen. In Basra
and the south, the violence is largely an intra-Shia power struggle.
The most stable parts of the country are the three provinces of the
Kurdish north and parts of the Shia south. However, most of Iraq's
cities have a sectarian mix and are plagued by persistent violence.