The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. There is no path
that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved.
In this report, we make a number of recommendations for actions to be
taken in Iraq, the United States, and the region. Our most important
recommendations call for new and enhanced diplomatic and political
efforts in Iraq and the region, and a change in the primary mission of
U.S. forces in Iraq that will enable the United States to begin to
move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly. We believe that these
two recommendations are equally important and reinforce one another.
If they are effectively implemented, and if the Iraqi government moves
forward with national reconciliation, Iraqis will have an opportunity
for a better future, terrorism will be dealt a blow, stability will be
enhanced in an important part of the world, and America's credibility,
interests, and values will be protected.
The challenges in Iraq are complex. Violence is increasing in scope
and lethality. It is fed by a Sunni Arab insurgency, Shiite militias
and death squads, al Qaeda, and widespread criminality. Sectarian
conflict is the principal challenge to stability. The Iraqi people
have a democratically elected government, yet it is not adequately
advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or
delivering essential services. Pessimism is pervasive.
If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be
severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's
government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could
intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a
propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global
standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could
become more polarized.
During the past nine months we have considered a full range of
approaches for moving forward. All have flaws. Our recommended course
has shortcomings, but we firmly believe that it includes the best
strategies and tactics to positively influence the outcome in Iraq and
the region.