case of conflict Great Britain will have the assistance of continental
allies? That depends chiefly on their faith in her power to help them.
One condition of such an alliance undoubtedly exists--the desire of
other nations for it. The predominance of Germany on the Continent
rests like a nightmare upon more than one of the other States. It is
increased by the alliance of Austria, another great military empire--an
empire, moreover, not without a fine naval tradition, and, as is proved
by the recent announcement of the intention of the Austrian Government
to build four "Dreadnoughts," resolved to revive that tradition.
Against the combination of Germany and Austria, Russia, which has hardly
begun to recover from the prostration of her defeat by Japan, is
helpless; while France, with a population much smaller than that of
Germany, can hardly look forward to a renewal single-handed of the
struggle which ended for her so disastrously forty years ago. The
position of Italy is more doubtful, for the sympathies of her people are
not attracted by Austria; they look with anxiety upon the Austrian
policy of expansion towards the Aegean and along the shore of the
Adriatic. The estrangement from France which followed upon the French
occupation of Tunis appears to have passed away, and it seems possible
that if there were a chance of success Italy might be glad to emancipate
herself from German and Austrian influence. But even if Germany's policy
were such that Russia, France, and Italy were each and all of them
desirous to oppose it, and to assert a will and a policy of their own
distinct from that of the German Government, it is very doubtful whether
their strength is sufficient to justify them in an armed conflict,
especially as their hypothetical adversaries have a central position
with all its advantages. From a military point of view the strength of
the central position consists in the power which it gives to its holder
to keep one opponent in check with a part of his forces while he throws
the bulk of them into a decisive blow against another.
This is the situation of to-day on the Continent of Europe. It cannot be
changed unless there is thrown into the scale of the possible opponents
of German policy a weight or a force that would restore the equality of
the two parties. The British navy, however perfect it may be assumed to
be, does not in itself constitute such a force. Nor could the British
army on its present footing restore the balance. A small standing army
able to give its allies assistance, officially estimated at a strength
of 160,000 men, will not suffice to turn the scale in a conflict in
which the troops available for each of the great Powers are counted no
longer by the hundred thousand but by the million. But if Great Britain
were so organised that she could utilise for the purpose of war the
whole of her national resources, if she had in addition to the navy
indispensable for her security an army equal in efficiency to the best
that can be found in Europe and in numbers to that maintained by Italy,
which though the fifth Power on the Continent is most nearly her equal
in territory and population, the equilibrium could be restored, and
either the peace of Europe would be maintained, or in case of fresh
conflict there would be a reasonable prospect of the recurrence of what
has happened in the past, the maintenance, against a threatened
domination, of the independence of the European States.
The position here set forth is grave enough to demand the close
attention of the British nation, for it means that England might at any
time be called upon to enter into a contest, likely enough to take the
form of a struggle for existence, against the greatest military empire
in the world, supported by another military empire which is itself in
the front rank of great Powers, while the other European States would be
looking on comparatively helpless.
But this is by no means a full statement of the case. The other Powers
might not find it possible to maintain an attitude of neutrality. It is
much more probable that they would have to choose between one side and
the other; and that if they do not consider Great Britain strong enough
to help them they may find it their interest, and indeed may be
compelled, to take the side of Great Britain's adversaries. In that case
Great Britain would have to carry on a struggle for existence against
the combined forces of the Continent.
That even in this extreme form the contest would be hopeless, I for one
am unwilling to admit. If Great Britain were organised for war and able
to throw her whole energies into it, she might be so strong that her
overthrow even by united Europe would by no means be a foregone
conclusion. But the determined preparation which would make her ready
for the extreme contingency is the best and perhaps the only means of
preventing its occurrence.
XI.
POLICY--THE QUESTION OF RIGHT
I have now given reasons for my belief that in case of conflict Great
Britain, owing to her lack of organisation for war, would be in a
position of some peril. She has not created for herself the means of
making good by force a cause with which she may be identified but which
may be disputed, and her weakness renders it improbable that she would
have allies. There remains the second question whether, in the absence
of might, she would at least have right on her side. That depends upon
the nature of the quarrel. A good cause ought to unite her own people,
and only in behalf of a good cause could she expect other nations to be
on her side. From this point of view must be considered the relations
between Great Britain and Germany, and in the first place the aims of
German policy.
A nation of which the army consists of four million able-bodied citizens
does not go to war lightly. The German ideal, since the foundation of
the Empire, has been rather that held up for Great Britain by Lord
Rosebery in the words:
"Peace secured, not by humiliation, but by preponderance."
The first object after the defeat of France in 1870 was security, and
this was sought not merely by strengthening the army and improving its
training but also by obtaining the alliance of neighbouring Powers. In
the first period the attempt was made to keep on good terms, not only
with Austria, but with Russia. When in 1876 disturbances began in the
Balkan Peninsula, Germany, while giving Austria her support, exerted
herself to prevent a breach between Austria and Russia, and after the
Russo-Turkish war acted as mediator between Russia on one side and
Austria and Great Britain on the other, so that without a fresh war the
European treaty of Berlin was substituted for the Russo-Turkish Treaty
of San Stefano.
After 1878 Russia became estranged from Germany, whereupon Germany, in
1879, made a defensive alliance with Austria, to which at a later date
Italy became a party. This triple alliance served for a quarter of a
century to maintain the peace against the danger of a Franco-Russian
combination until the defeat of Russia in Manchuria and consequent
collapse of Russia's military power removed that danger.
Shortly before this event the British agreement with the French
Government had been negotiated by Lord Lansdowne. The French were very
anxious to bring Morocco into the sphere of French influence, and to
this the British Government saw no objection, but in the preamble to the
agreement, as well as in its text, by way of declaration that Great
Britain had no objection to this portion of the policy of France, words
were used which might seem to imply that Great Britain had some special
rights in regard to Morocco.
The second article of the Declaration of April 8, 1904, contains the
following clause:
"The Government of the French Republic declare that they have no
intention of altering the political status of Morocco. His Britannic
Majesty's Government, for their part, recognise that it appertains to
France, more particularly as a Power whose dominions are conterminous
for a great distance with Morocco, to preserve order in that country,
and to provide assistance for the purpose of all administrative,
economic, financial, and military reforms which it may require."
This clause seems to be open to the interpretation that Great Britain
assumes a right to determine what nation of Europe is best entitled to
exercise a protectorate over Morocco. That would involve some British
superiority over other Powers, or at any rate that Great Britain had a
special right over Morocco, a sort of suzerainty of which she could
dispose at will. Germany disliked both this claim and the idea that
France was to obtain special influence in Morocco. She was herself
anxious for oversea possessions and spheres of influence, and appears to
have thought that if Morocco was to become a European protectorate she
ought to have a voice in any settlement. The terms in which the English
consent to the French design was expressed were construed by the
German's as involving, on the part of Great Britain, just that kind of
supremacy in regard to oversea affairs which they had for so many years
been learning to dislike. At any rate, when the moment convenient to her
came, Germany put her veto upon the arrangements which had been made and
required that they should be submitted to a European Conference. France
was not prepared to renew the struggle for existence over Morocco, while
Germany appeared not unwilling to assert her will even by force.
Accordingly Germany had her way.
The annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria-Hungary again
afforded an opportunity for the exercise of Germany's preponderance. In
1878 the Treaty of Berlin had authorised Austria-Hungary to occupy and
administer the two provinces without limitation of time, and Bosnia and
Herzegovina have since then practically been Austrian provinces, for the
male population has been subject to compulsory service in the Austrian
army and the soldiers have taken the oath of allegiance to the Emperor.
It is not clear that any of the great Powers had other than a formal
objection to the annexation, the objection, namely, that it was not
consistent with the letter of the Treaty of Berlin. The British
Government pointed out that, by international agreement to which
Austria-Hungary is a party, a European Treaty is not to be modified
without the consent of all the signatory Powers, and that this consent
had not been asked by Austria-Hungary. The British view was endorsed
both by France and Russia, and these three Powers were in favour of a
European Conference for the purpose of revising the clause of the Treaty
of Berlin, and apparently also of giving some concessions to Servia and
Montenegro, the two small States which, for reasons altogether
disconnected with the formal aspect of the case, resented the
annexation. Neither of the Western Powers had any such interest in the
matter as to make it in the least probable that they would in any case
be prepared to support their view by force, while Austria, by mobilising
her army, showed that she was ready to do so, and there was no doubt
that she was assured, in case of need, of Germany's support. The Russian
Minister of Foreign Affairs publicly explained to his countrymen that
Russia was not in a condition to carry on a war. Accordingly in the
moment of crisis the Russian Government withdrew its opposition to
Austro-Hungarian policy, and thus once more was revealed the effect upon
a political decision of the military strength, readiness, and
determination of the two central Powers.
A good deal of feeling was aroused, at any rate in Great Britain, by the
disclosure in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in the
earlier case of Morocco, of Germany's policy, and in the later
negotiation of her determination to support Austria-Hungary by force.
Yet he would be a rash man who, on now looking back, would assert that
in either case a British Government would have been justified in armed
opposition to Germany's policy.
The bearing of Germany and Austria-Hungary in these negotiations, ending
as they did at the time when the debate on the Navy Estimates disclosed
to the British public the serious nature of the competition in naval
shipbuilding between Germany and Great Britain, was to a large class in
this country a startling revelation of the too easily forgotten fact
that a nation does not get its way by asking for it, but by being able
and ready to assert its will by force of arms in case of need. There is
no reason to believe that the German Government has any intention to
enter into a war except for the maintenance of rights or interests held
to be vital for Germany, but it is always possible that Germany may hold
vital some right or interest which another nation may be not quite ready
to admit. In that case it behoves the other nation very carefully to
scrutinise the German claims and its own way of regarding them, and to
be quite sure, before entering into a dispute, that its own views are
right and Germany's views wrong, as well as that it has the means, in
case of conflict, of carrying on with success a war against the German
Empire.
If then England is to enter into a quarrel with Germany or any other
State, let her people take care that it arises from no obscure issue
about which they may disagree among themselves, but from some palpable
wrong done by the other Power, some wrong which calls upon them to
resist it with all their might.
The case alleged against Germany is that she is too strong, so strong in
herself that no Power in Europe can stand up against her, and so sure of
the assistance of her ally, Austria, to say nothing of the other ally,
Italy, that there is at this moment no combination that will venture to
oppose the Triple Alliance. In other words, Germany is thought to have
acquired an ascendency in Europe which she may at any moment attempt to
convert into supremacy. Great Britain is thought of, at any rate by her
own people, as the traditional opponent of any such supremacy on the
Continent, so that if she were strong enough it might be her function to
be the chief antagonist of a German ascendency or supremacy, though the
doubt whether she is strong enough prevents her from fulfilling this
role.
But there is another side to the case. The opinion has long been
expressed by German writers and is very widespread in Germany that it is
Great Britain that claims an ascendency or supremacy, and that Germany
in opposing that supremacy is making herself the champion of the
European cause of the independence of States. This German idea was
plainly expressed twenty-five years ago by the German historian Wilhelm
Müller, who wrote in a review of the year 1884: "England was the
opponent of all the maritime Powers of Europe. She had for decades
assumed at sea the same dictatorial attitude as France had maintained
upon land under Louis XIV. and Napoleon I. The years 1870-1871 broke the
French spell; the year 1884 has shown England that the times of her
maritime imperialism also are over, and that if she does not renounce it
of her own free will, an 1870 will come for the English spell too. It is
true, England need not fear any single maritime Power, but only a
coalition of them all; and hitherto she has done all she can to call up
such a coalition." The language which Englishmen naturally use in
discussing their country's naval strength might seem to lend itself to
the German interpretation. For example, on the 10th March 1908, the
Prime Minister, Mr. Asquith, expressing an opinion in which he thought
both parties concurred, said: "We must maintain the unassailable
supremacy of this country at sea." Here, at any rate, is the word
"supremacy" at which the Germans take umbrage, and which our own people
regard as objectionable if applied to the position of any Power on the
Continent.
I will not repeat here the analysis which I published many years ago of
the dealings between the German and British Governments during the
period when German colonial enterprise was beginning; nor the
demonstration that in those negotiations the British Government acted
with perfect fairness, but was grossly misrepresented to the German
public. The important thing for the people of Great Britain to
understand to-day is not the inner diplomatic history of that and
subsequent periods, but the impression which is current in Germany with
regard to the whole of these transactions.
The Germans think that Great Britain lays claim to a special position in
regard to the ocean, in the nature of a suzerainty over the waters of
the globe, and over those of its coasts which are not the possessions
of some strong civilised Power. What they have perceived in the last
quarter of a century has been that, somehow or other, they care not how,
whenever there has been a German attempt in the way of what is called
colonial expansion, it has led to friction with Great Britain.
Accordingly they have the impression that Great Britain is opposed to
any such German expansion, and in this way, as they are anxious for
dominions beyond the sea and for the spread of their trade into every
quarter of the globe, they have come to regard Great Britain as the
adversary. This German feeling found vent during the South African War,
and the expressions at that time freely used in the German newspapers,
as well as by German writers whose works were less ephemeral, could not
but deeply offend the national consciousness, to any nothing of the
pride of the people of this country. In this way the sympathy which used
to exist between the two peoples has been lost and they have come to
regard each other with suspicion, which has not been without its effect
on the relations between the two Governments and upon the course of
European diplomacy. This is the origin of the rivalry, and it is to the
resentment which has been diligently cultivated in Germany against the
supposed British claim to supremacy at sea that is attributable the
great popularity among the people of Germany of the movement in favour
of the expansion of the German navy. Since 1884 the people of Germany
have been taught to regard with suspicion every item of British policy,
and naturally enough this auspicious attitude has found its counterpart
among the people of this country. The result has been that the
agreements by which England has disposed of a number of disagreements
with France and with Russia have been regarded in Germany as inspired by
the wish to prepare a coalition against that country, and, in view of
the past history of Great Britain, this interpretation can hardly be
pronounced unnatural.
Any cause for which Great Britain would fight ought to be intelligible
to other nations, first of all to those of Europe, but also to the
nations outside of Europe, at any rate to the United States and Japan,
for if we were fighting for something in regard to which there was no
sympathy with us, or which led other nations to sympathise with our
adversary, we should be hampered by grave misgivings and might find
ourselves alone in a hostile world.
Accordingly it cannot be sound policy for Great Britain to assert for
herself a supremacy or ascendency of the kind which is resented, not
only by Germany, but by every other continental State, and indeed by
every maritime State in the world. It ought to be made clear to all the
world that in fact, whatever may have been the language used in English
discussions, Great Britain makes no claim to suzerainty over the sea, or
over territories bordering on the sea, not forming parts of the British
Empire; that, while she is determined to maintain a navy that can in
case of war secure the "command" of the sea against her enemies, she
regards the sea, in peace, and in war except for her enemies, as the
common property of all nations, the open road forming the great highway
of mankind.
We have but to reflect on the past to perceive that the idea of a
dominion of the sea must necessarily unite other nations against us.
What in the sixteenth century was the nature of the dispute between
England and Spain? The British popular consciousness to-day remembers
two causes, of which one was religious antagonism, and the other the
claim set up by Spain and rejected by England to a monopoly of America,
carrying with it an exclusive right to navigation in the Western
Atlantic and to a monopoly of the trade of the Spanish dominions beyond
the sea. That is a chapter of history which at the present time deserves
a place in the meditations of Englishmen.
I may now try to condense into a single view the general survey of the
conditions of Europe which I have attempted from the two points of view
of strategy and of policy, of force and of right. Germany has such a
preponderance of military force that no continental State can stand up
against her. There is, therefore, on the Continent no nation independent
of German influence or pressure. Great Britain, so long as she maintains
the superiority of her navy over that of Germany or over those of
Germany and her allies, is not amenable to constraint by Germany, but
her military weakness prevents her exerting any appreciable counter
pressure upon Germany.
The moment the German navy has become strong enough to confront that of
Great Britain without risk of destruction, British influence in Europe
will be at an end, and the Continent will have to follow the direction
given by German policy. That is a consummation to be desired neither in
the interest of the development of the European nations nor in that of
Great Britain. It means the prevalence of one national ideal instead of
the growth side by side of a number of types. It means also the
exclusion of British ideals from European life.
Great Britain has in the past been a powerful contributor to the free
development of the European nations, and therefore to the preservation
in Europe of variety of national growth. I believe that she is now
called upon to renew that service. The method open to her lies in such
action as may relieve the other European States from the overwhelming
pressure which, in case of the disappearance of England from the
European community, would be put upon them by Germany. It seems probable
that in default of right action she will be compelled to maintain her
national ideals against Europe united under German guidance. The action
required consists on the one hand in the perfecting of the British navy,
and on the other of the military organisation of the British people on
the principle, already explained, of the nationalisation of war.
XII.
THE NATION
The conclusion to which a review of England's position and of the state
of Europe points, is that while there is no visible cause of quarrel
between Great Britain and Germany, yet there is between them a rivalry
such as is inevitable between a State that has long held something like
the first place in the world and a State that feels entitled in virtue
of the number of its people, their character and training, their work
and their corporate organisation, to aspire to the first place. The
German nation by the mere fact of its growth challenges England for the
primacy. It could not be otherwise. But the challenge is no wrong done
to England, and the idea that it ought to be resented is unworthy of
British traditions. It must be cheerfully accepted. If the Germans are
better men than we are they deserve to take our place. If we mean to
hold our own we must set about it in the right way--by proving ourselves
better than the Germans.
There ought to be no question of quarrel or of war. Men can be rivals
without being enemies. It is the first lesson that an English boy
learns at school. Quarrels arise, as a rule, from misunderstandings or
from faults of temper, and England ought to avoid the frame of mind
which would render her liable to take offence at trifles, while her
policy ought to be simple enough to escape being misunderstood.