THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM
The new year opened as the old one had closed, with marked activity
in all branches of my business; nor was there any perceptible change
until late in the spring, then began a gradually diminishing demand
that made a comparatively dull summer. Not but what there was a
fair amount of business doing all the time, but the great rush was
over.
It was only the calm before the storm. Early in the fall it became
evident to me there was a new factor in the market. Somebody, outside
the regular trade, was quietly buying up the odd lots floating
around.
The buying was not aggressive, far from it. Whoever was buying
wanted the stuff, not a higher market. The greatest caution was
observed in making the purchases so that the market might be affected
as little as possible. Every effort was made to conceal the source
from which the demand emanated. I knew it was not from any of the
New York trade, and I could not believe, judging from the broker who
was doing the buying, that it could be for account of any American
speculator. If I was right in this conclusion, then of necessity
it must be for foreign account.
In order that my readers shall fully understand what follows it is
necessary they should know the basis of our arrangement with our
London friends, which was this:
They were to cable us daily limits for buying or selling as the
case might be. These limits included our commission. We were to
guarantee our customers, that is to say, the London firm took no
risk of buyers. If we were to sell a parcel for future delivery
and before the delivery was made our customer should fail we would
have to stand the loss, if any, on the re-sale.
A few months after the connection was established the firm found
fault because so little business was done, while in many cases the
limit was so close to the market that only the commission or part
of it stood in the way of a sale.
The original arrangement was then qualified and thereafter the limits
were sent net, it being understood that when necessary we would
sell at limit, that is, do the business for nothing; but to offset
this concession, we were at all times to have for our commission
all we could get over the limit.
It proved a most fortunate change for us.
The buying continued and the market moved slowly toward a higher
level. After a few days steady buying there would be a cessation
for a day or two to allow the market to sag, then it would commence
again. The principal sellers were our London friends, and though we
were earning many commissions we felt that our friends were making
a mistake and not gauging the market correctly.
At this time our Boston correspondent offered us one hundred tons
to arrive by sailing vessel due in about three months. We secured
refusal over night and cabled the offer to London, advising the
purchase and expressing fully our opinion of the market.
The following morning I sat at my desk, and opening a cable read,
"Market advanced through operations of a few weak French speculators."
Then followed a selling limit. I laid the cable down and took up
the Boston telegram offering the hundred tons.
With the exception of my small interest in that purchase in January,
1880, I had refrained from speculation, and now I was considering
whether or not I should buy those hundred tons. The option had
nearly expired and action must be prompt. Calling a stenographer
I dictated a telegram, "We accept"--and the deed was done.
On arrival of the vessel I sold out at a profit of twenty thousand
dollars.
My profits for the year were sixty-one thousand dollars.
On February fourteenth, as a valentine, there came to "Redstone" our
fourth daughter and the family circle was complete. With two sons
and four daughters, the ban of "race suicide," theory of President
Roosevelt, rests not on us.