HOW MUCH FORTUNE CAN DO IN HUMAN AFFAIRS AND HOW IT MAY BE OPPOSED
It is not unknown to me how many have been and are of opinion that
worldly events are so governed by fortune and by God, that men cannot
by their prudence change them, and that on the contrary there is no
remedy whatever, and for this they may judge it to be useless to toil
much about them, but let things be ruled by chance. This opinion has
been more believed in in our day, from the great changes that have been
seen, and are daily seen, beyond every human conjecture.
When I think about them at times, I am partly inclined to share
this opinion. Nevertheless, that our freewill may not be altogether
extinguished, I think it may be true that fortune is the ruler of half
our actions, but that she allows the other half or a little less to be
governed by us. I would compare her to an impetuous river that, when
turbulent, inundates the plains, ruins trees and buildings, removes
earth from this side and places it on the other; every one flies before
it, and everything yields to its fury without being able to oppose it;
and yet though it is of such a kind, still when it is quiet, men can
make provision against it by dams and banks, so that when it rises
it will either go into a canal or its rush will not be so wild and
dangerous. It happens similarly with fortune, which shows her power
where no measures have been taken to resist her, and turns her fury
where she knows that no dams or barriers have been made to hold her.
And if you regard Italy, which has been the seat of these changes, and
who has given the impulse to them, you will see her to be a country
without dams or barriers of any kind. If she had been protected by
proper measures, like Germany, Spain, and France, this inundation
would not have caused the great changes that it has, or would not have
happened at all. This must suffice as regards opposition to fortune
in general. But limiting myself more to particular cases, I would
point out how one sees a certain prince to-day fortunate and to-morrow
ruined, without seeing that he has changed in character or otherwise.
I believe this arises in the first place from the causes that we have
already discussed at length; that is to say, because the prince who
bases himself entirely on fortune is ruined when fortune varies. I
also believe that he is happy whose mode of proceeding accords with
the needs of the times, and similarly he is unfortunate whose mode of
proceeding is opposed to the times. For one sees that men in those
things which lead them to the aim that each one has in view, namely,
glory and riches, proceed in various ways; one with circumspection,
another with impetuosity, one by violence, another by cunning, one with
patience, another with the reverse; and each by these diverse ways
may arrive at his aim. One sees also two cautious men, one of whom
succeeds in his designs, and the other not, and in the same way two men
succeed equally by different methods, one being cautious, the other
impetuous, which arises only from the nature of the times, which does
or does not conform to their method of proceeding. From this results,
as I have said, that two men, acting differently, attain the same
effect, and of two others acting in the same way, one arrives at his
good and not the other. From this depend also the changes in fortune,
for if it happens that time and circumstances are favourable to one
who acts with caution and prudence he will be successful, but if time
and circumstances change he will be ruined, because he does not change
his mode of proceeding. No man is found able to adapt himself to this,
either because he cannot deviate from that to which his nature disposes
him, or else because having always prospered by walking in one path,
he cannot persuade himself that it is well to leave it; and therefore
the cautious man, when it is time to act suddenly, does not know how
to do so and is consequently ruined; for if one could change one's
nature with time and circumstances, fortune would never change. Pope
Julius II. acted impetuously in everything he did and found the times
and conditions so in conformity with that mode of proceeding, that he
always obtained a good result. Consider the first war that he made
against Bologna while Messer Giovanni Bentivogli was still living. The
Venetians were not pleased with it, the King of Spain and likewise
France had objections to this enterprise, notwithstanding which with
his fierce and impetuous disposition he engaged personally in the
expedition. This move caused both Spain and the Venetians to halt and
hesitate, the latter through fear, the former through the desire to
regain the entire kingdom of Naples. On the other hand, he engaged
with him the King of France, because seeing him make this move and
desiring his friendship in order to put down the Venetians, that king
judged that he could not refuse him his troops without manifest injury.
Thus Julius by his impetuous move achieved what no other pontiff with
the utmost human prudence would have succeeded in doing, because, if
he had waited till all arrangements had been made and everything
settled before leaving Rome, as any other pontiff would have done, it
would never have taken place. For the king of France would have found
a thousand excuses, and the others would have inspired him with a
thousand fears. I will omit his other actions, which were all of this
kind and which all succeeded well, and the shortness of his life did
not suffer him to experience the contrary, for had times succeeded
in which it was necessary to act with caution, his ruin would have
resulted, for he would never have deviated from these methods to which
his nature disposed him. I conclude then that fortune varying and men
remaining fixed in their ways, they are successful so long as these
ways conform to each other, but when they are opposed to each other
then they are unsuccessful. I certainly think that it is better to be
impetuous than cautious, for fortune is a woman, and it is necessary,
if you wish to master her, to conquer her by force; and it can be seen
that she lets herself be overcome by these rather than by those who
proceed coldly. And therefore, like a woman, she is a friend to the
young, because they are less cautious, fiercer, and master her with
greater audacity.