HOW MONEY IS MADE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE.
THE OPERATIONS OF THE FOREIGN DEPARTMENT
Complete description of the various forms of activity of the foreign
exchange department of an important firm would fill a large volume, but
there are certain stock operations in foreign exchange which are the
basis of most of the transactions carried out and the understanding of
which ought to go a long way toward making clear what the nature of the
foreign exchange department's business really is.
1. _Selling "Demand" Against "Demand"_
The first and most elementary form of activity is, of course, the
buying of demand bills at a certain price and the selling of the
banker's own demand drafts against them at a higher price. A banker
finds, for instance, that he can buy John Smith & Co.'s sight draft for
L1,000, on London, at the rate of 4.86, and that he can sell his own
draft for L1,000 on his London banking correspondent at 4.87. All he
has to do, therefore, is to buy John Smith's draft for $4,860, send it
to London for credit of his account there, and then draw his own draft
for L1,000 on the newly created balance, selling it for $4,870. It cost
him $4,860 to buy the commercial draft, and he has sold his own draft
against it for $4,870. His gross profit on the transaction, therefore,
is $10.
As may be imagined, not very much money is made in transactions exactly
of this kind--the one cited is taken only because it illustrates the
principle. For whether the banker sends over in every mail a
bewildering assortment of every conceivable form of foreign exchange to
be credited to his account abroad, or whether he confines himself to
remittances of the simplest kinds of bills, the idea remains exactly
the same--he is depositing money to the credit of his account in order
that he may have a balance on which he can draw. That is, indeed, the
sum and substance of the exchange business of the foreign department of
most banking houses--the maintaining of deposit accounts in banks at
foreign centers on which deposit account the bank here is in a position
to draw according to the wants and needs of its customers.
To analyze the underlying transaction a little more closely, it is
evident that the banker, in order to make a profit, must be able to buy
the commercial bill at a lower rate of exchange than he can realize on
his own draft. Which suggests at once that the extent of the banker's
profit is dependent largely upon the amount of risk he is willing to
take. For the rate on commercial bills is purely a matter of the
drawer's credit. The best documentary commercial exchange, drawn at
sight on banks abroad or houses of the highest standing will command a
rate of exchange in the open market only a little less than the
banker's own draft. From which point the rate realizable on commercial
bills tapers off with the credit of the house in question, some bills
regularly selling a cent or a cent and a half per pound sterling below
the best bills of their class.
Without the introduction, therefore, of the element of speculation,
except as to the soundness of the bills' makers, it is possible for
bankers to make widely varying profits out of the same kind of
business. Everything depends upon the amount of risk the banker is
willing to take. The exchange market is a merciless critic of credit,
and if a commercial firm's bills always sell at low rates, the
presumption is strongly against its financial strength. Cases very
frequently occur, however, where the exchange market misjudges the
goodness of a bill, placing too low a valuation upon it. In that case
the banker who, individually, knows that the house in question is all
right, can make considerable sums of money buying its bills at the
low-going rates and selling his own exchange against them. This,
evidently, is purely a matter of the exchange manager's judgment. With
comparatively little risk there are banking houses which are making a
full cent a pound out of a good part of the commercial exchange they
handle.
2. _Selling Cables Against Demand Exchange_
No description of a cable transfer having been given in the preceding
description of different kinds of exchange, it may be explained briefly
that a "cable," so-called, differs from a sight draft only in that the
banker abroad who is to pay out the money is advised to do so by means
of a telegraphic message instead of by a bit of paper instructing him
to "pay to the order of so and so." A, in New York, wants to transfer
money to B, in London. He goes to his banker in New York and deposits
the amount, in dollars, with him, requesting that he (the New York
banker) instruct his correspondent in London, by cable, to pay to B the
equivalent in pounds. The transfer is immediate, the cable being sent
as soon as the American banker receives the money on this end.
To be able to instruct its correspondent in London by cable to pay out
large sums at any given time, a bank here must necessarily carry a
substantial credit balance abroad. It would be possible, of course, for
a banker to instruct his London agent by cable to pay out a sum of
money, at the same time cabling him the money to pay out, but this
operation of selling cables against cables is not much indulged
in--there is too little chance of profit in it. Under special
circumstances, however, it can be seen that a house anxious to sell a
large cable and not having the balance abroad to do it, might easily
provide its correspondent abroad with the funds by going out and buying
a cable itself.
But under ordinary circumstances foreign exchange dealers who engage in
the business of selling cables carry adequate balances on the other
side, balances which they keep replenishing by continuous remittances
of demand exchange. Which in itself constitutes an important form of
foreign exchange activity and an operation out of which many large
houses make a good deal of money.
All the parties involved being bankers there is little risk in business
of this kind; but, on the other hand, the margin of profit is small,
and in order to make any money out of it, it is necessary that very
large amounts of money be turned over. The average profit, for
instance, realized in the New York exchange market from straight sales
of cables against remittances of checks is fifteen points (15/100 of a
cent per pound sterling). That means that on every L10,000, the gross
profit would be $15.00. A daily turnover of L50,000, therefore, would
result in a gross profit of $75 a day.
It may seem strange that bankers should be willing to turn over so
large an amount of money for so small a profit, even where the risk has
been reduced to a minimum, but that is the case. Very often cables are
sold against balances which have been accumulated by remittance of all
sorts of bills other than demand, but there are several large American
institutions whose foreign exchange business consists principally of
the regulation selling of cables against remittances of demand bills.
By reason of their large deposits they are in a position to carry full
balances abroad, while in the course of their regular business a good
deal of sight exchange of high class comes across their counters. All
the necessary elements for doing the business being there, it only
remains for such an institution to employ a man capable of directing
the actual transactions. The risk is trifling, the advertisement is
world-wide, the accommodation of customers is being attended to, and
there is considerable actual money profit to be made. The business in
many respects is thus highly desirable.
3. _Selling "Demand" Bills Against Remittances of Long Bills_
If there is a stock operation in the conduct of a foreign exchange
business it is the selling by bankers of their demand bills of exchange
against remittances of commercial and bankers' long paper. Bills of the
latter class, as has been pointed out, make up the bulk of foreign
exchange traded in, and its disposal naturally is the most important
phase of foreign exchange business. For after all, all cabling,
arbitraging in exchange, drawing of finance bills, etc., is only
incidental. What the foreign exchange business really is grounded on is
the existence of commercial bills called into existence by exports of
merchandise.
There are houses doing an extensive exchange business who never buy
commercial long bills, but the operations they carry on are made
possible only by the fact that most other houses do. A foreign exchange
department which does not handle this kind of exchange is necessarily
on the "outside" of the real business--is like a bond broker who does
not carry bonds with his own money but merely trades in and out on
other people's operations.
Buying and remitting commercial long bills is, however, no pastime for
an inexperienced man. Entirely aside from the question of rate, and
profit on the exchange end of the transaction, there must be taken into
consideration the matter of the credit of the drawer and the drawee,
the salability of the merchandise specified in the bill of lading, and
a number of other important points. This question of credit, underlying
to so great a degree the whole business of buying commercial long
paper, will be considered first.
The completely equipped exchange department has at its disposal all the
machinery necessary for investigating expeditiously the standing and
financial strength of any firm whose bills are likely to be offered in
the exchange market. Such facilities are afforded by subscription to
the two leading mercantile agencies, but in addition to this, the
experienced exchange manager has at his command private sources of
information which can be applied to practically every firm engaged in
the export business. The larger banks, of course, all have a regular
credit man, one of whose chief duties nowadays is to assist in the
handling of the bank's foreign exchange business. So perfect does the
organization become after a few years of the actual transaction of a
foreign exchange business that the standing of practically any bill
taken by a broker into a bank, for sale, can be passed upon instantly.
New firms come into existence, of course, and have to be fully
investigated, but the experienced manager of a foreign department can
tell almost offhand whether he wants a bill of any given name or not.
Where documents accompany the draft and the merchandise is formally
hypothecated to the buyer of the draft, it might not be thought that
the standing of the drawer would be of such great importance.
Possession of the merchandise, it is true, gives the banker a certain
form of security in case acceptance of the bill is refused by the
parties on whom it is drawn or in case they refuse to pay it when it
comes due, but the disposal of such collateral is a burdensome and
often expensive operation. The banker in New York who buys a sixty-day
draft drawn against a shipment of butter is presumably not an expert on
the butter market and if he should be forced to sell the butter, might
not be able to do so to the fullest possible advantage. Employment of
an expert agent is an expensive operation, and, moreover, there is
always the danger of legal complication arising out of the banker's
having sold the collateral. It is desirable in every way that if there
is to be any trouble about the acceptance or payment of a draft, the
banker should keep himself out of it.
A concrete illustration of the dangers attendant upon the purchase of
commercial long bills from irresponsible parties is to be found in what
happened a few years ago to a prominent exchange house in New York.
This house had been buying the bills of a certain firm for some little
time, and everything had gone well. But one day acceptance of a bill
for L2,000 was refused by the party abroad, and the news cabled that
the bill of lading was a forgery and that no such shipment had ever
been made. Wiring hurriedly to the inland city in which was located the
firm which drew the bill, the New York bank received the reply that
both partners had decamped. What had happened was that, about to break
up, the "firm" had drawn and sold several large bills of exchange, with
forged documents attached, received their money for them, and then
disappeared. Neither of them was ever apprehended, and the various
bankers who had taken the exchange lost the money they had paid for it.
Forgery of the bill of lading in this case had been a comparatively
easy matter, the shipment purporting to have been made from an obscure
little cotton town in the South, the signature of whose railroad agent
was not at all known.
This forgery is only one example of the trickery possible and the
extreme care which is necessary in the purchase of bills of this kind.
And not only must the standing of the drawer be taken into
consideration, but the standing of the drawee is a matter of almost
equal importance--after the "acceptance" of the bill, the parties
accepting it being equally liable with its maker. The nature of the
merchandise, furthermore, and its marketability are further
considerations of great importance. Cotton, it will readily appear, is
an entirely different sort of collateral from clocks, or some specialty
in which the market may vary widely. The banker who holds a bill of
lading for cotton shipped to Liverpool can at any moment tell exactly
what he can realize on it. In the case of many kinds of articles,
however, the invoice value may differ widely from the realizable value,
and if the banker should ever be forced to sell the merchandise, he
might have to do so at a big loss.
Returning to the actual operation of selling bankers' demand against
remittances of long bills, it appears that the successive steps in an
actual transaction are about as follows:
The banker in New York having ascertained by cable the rate at which
bills "to arrive" in London by a certain steamer will be discounted,
buys the bills here and sends them over, with instructions that they be
immediately discounted and the proceeds placed to his credit. On this
resulting balance he will at once draw his demand draft and sell it in
the open market. If, from selling this demand draft, he can realize
more dollars than it cost him in dollars to put the balance over there,
he has made a gross profit of the difference.
To illustrate more specifically: A banker has bought, say, a L1,000
ninety days' sight prime draft, on London, documents deliverable on
acceptance. This he has remitted to his foreign correspondent, and his
foreign correspondent has had it stamped with the required "bill-stamp,"
has had it discounted, and after having taken his commission out of the
proceeds, has had them placed to the credit of the American bank. In
all this process the bill has lost weight. It arrived in London as
L1,000, but after commissions, bill-stamps and ninety-three days'
discount have been taken out of it, the amount is reduced well below
L1,000. The _net_ proceeds going to make up the balance on which the
American banker can draw his draft are, perhaps, not over L990. He paid
so-and-so many dollars for the L1,000 ninety-day bill, originally. If
he can realize that many dollars by selling a demand draft for L990 he
is even on the transaction.
No attempt will be made in this little book to present the tables by
which foreign exchange bankers figure out profit possibilities in
operations of this kind. The terms obtainable from foreign
correspondents vary so widely according to the standing and credit of
the house on this side and are governed by so many different influences
that a manager must work out each transaction he enters according to
the conditions by which he, particularly, and his operations are
governed. Such calculations, moreover, are all built up along the
general line of the scheme presented below:
Assume that the rate for demand bills is 4.85, that discount in
London is 3-1/2 per cent, and that the amount of the long bill
remitted for discount and credit of proceeds is L100.
_The various expenses are as follows:_
Commission charged by the banker in
London 1/40 per cent. $0.12
Discount, 93 days (3 days of grace)
at 3-1/2 per cent. 4.38
English Government bill stamp 1/20 per cent. 0.24
------
$4.74
Total charges on the ninety days' sight L100 bill amount to $4.74. On
one pound, therefore, the charge would be $.0474. From which it is
evident that each pound of a ninety-day bill, under the conditions
given, is worth $.0474 (=4.74 cents) less than each pound in a bankers'
demand bill. From which it is evident that if such a demand bill were
sold at 4.85 against a ninety-day bill bought at 4.8026 (found by
subtracting 4.74 cents from 485 cents) the remitting banker would come
out even in the transaction.
The foregoing has been introduced at the risk of confusing the lay
reader, on the idea that all the various calculations regarding the
drawing of "demand" against the remitting of long bills are founded on
the same general principle, and that where it is desired to go more
deeply into the matter the correct conditions can be substituted.
Discount, of course, varies from day to day, "payment" bills do not go
through the discount market at all, but are "rebated," the commissions
charged different bankers and by different bankers vary widely. Under
the circumstances the value of presenting a lot of hard-and-fast
calculations worked out under any given set of conditions is extremely
doubtful.
As to the profit on business of this kind it can be said that the
average, where the best bills are used, runs not much over twenty
points (one-fifth of a cent per pound sterling). From that, of course,
profits actually made run up as high as one cent or even two cents per
pound, according to the amount of risk involved. The buying of cheap
bills is, however, a most precarious operation. One single mistake, and
the whole profit of months may be completely wiped out. The proposition
is a good deal like lending money on insecure collateral, or like
lending to doubtful firms. There are banking houses which do it, have
been doing it for years, and by reason of an intuitive feeling when
there is trouble ahead have been able to avoid heavy losses. Such
business, however, can hardly be called high-class banking practice.
4. _The Operation of Making Foreign Loans_
In its influence upon the other markets, there is perhaps no more
important phase of foreign exchange than the making of foreign loans in
the American market. How great is the amount of foreign capital
continually loaned out in this country has been several times suggested
in previous pages. The mechanics of these foreign loaning operations,
the way in which the money is transferred to this side, etc., will now
be taken up.
To begin at the very beginning, consider how favorable a field is the
American market for the employment of Europe's spare banking capital.
Almost invariably loaning rates in New York are higher than they are in
London or Paris. This is due, perhaps, to the fact that industry here
runs on at a much faster pace than in England or France, or it may be
due to the fact that we are a newer country, that there is no such
accumulated fund of capital here as there is abroad. Such a hypothesis
for our own higher interest rates would seem to be supported by the
fact that in Germany, too, interest is consistently on a higher level
than in London or Paris, Germany, like ourselves, being a vigorous
industrial nation without any very great accumulated fund of capital
saved by the people. But whatever the reason, the fact remains that in
New York money rates are generally on so much more attractive a basis
than they are abroad that there is practically never a time when there
are not hundreds of millions of dollars of English and French money
loaned out in this market.
To go back no further than the present decade, it will be recalled how
great a part foreign floating capital played in financing the
ill-starred speculation here which culminated in the panic of May 9,
1901. Europe in the end of 1900 had gone mad over our industrial
combinations and had shovelled her millions into this market for the
use of our promoters. What use was made of the money is well known. The
instance is mentioned here, with others which follow, only to show that
all through the past ten years London has at various times opened her
reservoirs of capital and literally poured money into the American
market.
Even the experience of 1901 did not daunt the foreign lenders, and in
1902 fresh amounts of foreign capital, this time mostly German, were
secured by our speculators to push along the famous "Gates boom." That
time, however, the lenders' experience seemed to discourage them, and
until 1906 there was not a great deal of foreign money, relatively
speaking, loaned out here. In the summer of that year, chiefly through
Mr. Harriman's efforts, English and French capital began to come
largely into the New York market--made possible, indeed, the "Harriman
Market of 1906." This was the money the terror-stricken withdrawal of
which during most of 1907 made the panic as bad as it was. After the
panic, most of what was left was withdrawn by foreign lenders, so that
in the middle of 1908 the market here was as bare of foreign money as
it has been in years. Returning American prosperity, however, combined
with complete stagnation abroad, set up another hitherward movement of
foreign capital which, during the spring and summer of 1909, attained
amazing proportions. By the end of the summer, indeed, more foreign
capital was employed in the American market than ever before in the
country's financial history.
To take up the actual operation of loaning foreign money in the
American market, suppose conditions to be such that an English bank's
managers have made up their minds to loan out L100,000 in New York--not
on joint account with the American correspondent, as is often done, but
entirely independently. Included in the arrangements for the
transaction will be a stipulation as to whether the foreign bank
loaning the money wants to loan it on the basis of receiving a
commission and letting the borrower take the risk of how demand
exchange may fluctuate during the life of the loan, or whether the
lender prefers to lend at a fixed rate of interest, say six per cent.,
and himself accept the risk of exchange.
What the foregoing means will perhaps become more clear if it is
realized that in the first case the American agent of the foreign
lender draws a ninety days' sight sterling bill for, say, L100,000 on
the lender, and hands the actual bill over to the parties here who want
the money. Upon the latter falls the task of selling the bill, and,
ninety days later, when the time of repayment comes, the duty of
returning a _demand_ bill for L100,000, plus the stipulated commission.
In the second kind of a loan the borrower has nothing to do with the
exchange part of the transaction, the American banking agent of the
foreign lender turning over to the borrower not a sterling draft but
the dollar proceeds of a sterling draft. How the exchange market
fluctuates in the meantime--what rate may have to be paid at the end of
ninety days for the necessary demand draft--concerns the borrower not
at all. He received dollars in the first place, and when the loan comes
due he pays back dollars, plus four, five or six per cent., as the case
may be. What rate has to be paid for the demand exchange affects the
banker only, not the borrower.
Loans made under the first conditions are known as sterling, mark, or
franc loans; the other kind are usually called "currency loans." At the
risk of repetition, it is to be said that in the case of sterling loans
the borrower pays a flat commission and takes the risk of what rate he
may have to pay for demand exchange when the loan comes due. In the
case of a currency loan the borrower knows nothing about the foreign
exchange transaction. He receives dollars, and pays them back with a
fixed rate of interest, leaving the whole question and risk of exchange
to the lending banker.
To illustrate the mechanism of one of these sterling loans. Suppose the
London Bank, Ltd., to have arranged with the New York Bank to have the
latter loan out L100,000 in the New York market. The New York Bank
draws L100,000 of ninety days' sight bills, and, satisfactory
collateral having been deposited, turns them over to the brokerage
house of Smith & Jones. Smith & Jones at once sell the L100,000,
receiving therefor, say, $484,000.
The bills sold by Smith & Jones find their way to London by the first
steamer, are accepted and discounted. Ninety days later they will come
due and have to be paid, and ten days prior to their maturity the New
York Bank will be expecting Smith & Jones to send in a _demand_ draft
for L100,000, plus three-eighths per cent. commission, making L375
additional. This L100,375, less its commission for having handled the
loan, the New York Bank will send to London, where it will arrive a
couple of days before the L100,000 of ninety days' sight bills
originally drawn on the London Bank, Ltd., mature.
What each of the bankers concerned makes out of the transaction is
plain enough. As to what Smith & Jones' ninety-day loan cost them, in
addition to the flat three-eighths per cent. they had to pay, that
depends upon what they realize from the sale of the ninety days' sight
bills in the first place and secondly on what rate they had to pay for
the demand bill for L100,000. Exchange may have gone up during the life
of the loan, making the loan expensive, or it may have gone down,
making the cost very little. Plainly stated, unless they secured
themselves by buying a "future" for the delivery of a L100,000 demand
bill in ninety days at a fixed rate, Messrs. Smith & Jones have been
making a mild speculation in foreign exchange.
If the same loan had been made on the other basis, the New York Bank
would have turned over to Smith & Jones not a _sterling bill_ for
L100,000, but the _dollar proceeds_ of such a bill, say a check for
$484,000. At the end of ninety days Smith & Jones would have had to pay
back $484,000, plus ninety days' interest at six per cent, $7,260, all
of which cash, less commission, the New York Bank would have invested
in a demand bill of exchange and sent over to the London Bank, Ltd.
Whatever more than the L100,000 needed to pay off the maturing nineties
such a demand draft amounted to, would be the London Bank, Ltd.'s,
profit.
From all of which it is plainly to be seen that when the London bankers
are willing to lend money here and figure that the exchange market is
on the down track, they will insist upon doing their lending on the
"currency loan" basis--taking the risk of exchange themselves.
Conversely, when loaning operations seem profitable but rates seem to
be on the upturn, lenders will do their best to put their money out in
the form of "sterling loans." Bankers are not always right in their
views, by any means, but as a general principle it can be said that
when big amounts of foreign money offered in this market are all
offered on the "sterling loan" basis, a rising exchange market is to be
expected.
As to the collateral on these foreign loans, it is evident that there
is as much chance for different ways of looking at different stocks as
there is in regular domestic loaning operations. Not only does the
standing of the borrower here make a difference, but there are certain
securities which certain banks abroad favor, and others, perhaps just
as good, with which they will have nothing to do.
Excepting the case of special negotiation, however, it may be said that
the collateral put up the case of foreign loans in this market is of a
very high order. Three years ago this could hardly have been said, but
one of the many beneficial effects of the panic was to greatly raise
the standard of the collateral required by foreign lenders in this
market. It used formerly to be more a case of the standing of the
borrower. Nowadays the collateral is usually deposited here in care of
a banker or trust company.
From what has been said about the mechanism of making these foreign
loans, it is evident that no transfer of cash actually takes place, and
that what really happens is that the foreign banking institution lends
out its credit instead of its cash. For in no case is the lender
required to put up any money. The drafts drawn upon him are at ninety
days' sight, and all he has to do is to write the word "accepted," with
his signature, across their face. Later they will be presented for
actual payment, but by that time the "cover" will have reached London
from the banker in America who drew the "nineties," and the maturing
bills will be paid out of that. The foreign lender, in other words, is
at no stage out of any actual capital, although it is true, of course,
that he has obligated himself to pay the drafts on maturity, by
"accepting" them.
Where, then, is the limit of what the foreign bankers can lend in the
New York market? On one consideration only does that depend--the amount
of accepted long bills which the London discount market will stand. For
all the ninety days' sight bills drawn in the course of these transfers
of credit must eventually be discounted in the London discount market,
and when the London discount market refuses to absorb bills of this
kind a material check is naturally administered to their creation.
Too great drawings of loan-bills, as the long bills drawn to make
foreign loans are called, are quickly reflected in a squeamish London
discount market. It needs only the refusal of the Bank of England to
re-discount the paper of a few London banks suspected of having
"accepted" too great a quantity of American loan-bills, to make it
impossible to go on loaning profitably in the New York market. In order
to make loans, long bills have to be drawn and sold to somebody, and if
the discount market in London will take no more American paper, buyers
for freshly-created American paper will be hard to find.
To get back to the part foreign loaning operations play in the foreign
exchange market here, it is plain that as no actual money is put up,
the business is attractive and profitable to the bank having the
requisite facilities and the right foreign connection. It means the
putting of the bank's name on a good deal of paper, it is true, but
only on the deposit of entirely satisfactory collateral and only in
connection with the assuming of the same obligation by a foreign
institution of high standing. There are few instances where loss in
transacting this form of business has been sustained, while the profits
derived from it are very large.
As to what the foreign department of an American bank makes out of the
business, it may be said that that depends very largely upon whether
the bank here acts merely as a lending agent or whether the operation
is for "joint account," both as to risk and commission. In the former
case (and more and more this seems to be becoming the basis on which
the business is done) both the American and the European bank stands to
make a very fair return--always considering that neither is called upon
to put up one real dollar or pound sterling. Take, for instance, the
average sterling loan made on the basis of the borrower taking all the
risk of exchange and paying a flat commission of three-eighths of one
per cent. for each ninety days. That means that each bank makes
three-sixteenths of one per cent. for every ninety days the loan
runs--the American bank for simply drawing its ninety-day bills of
exchange and the English bank for merely accepting them. Naturally,
competition is keen, American banking houses vying with each other both
for the privilege of acting as agents of the foreign banks having money
to lend, and of going into joint-account loaning operations with them.
Three-sixteenths or perhaps one-quarter of one per cent. for ninety
days (three-quarters of one per cent. and one per cent. annually) may
not seem much of an inducement, but considering the fact that no real
cash is involved, this percentage is enough to make the biggest and
best banking houses in the country go eagerly after the business.
5. _The Drawing of Finance-Bills_
Approaching the subject of finance-bills, the author is well aware that
concerning this phase of the foreign exchange business there is wide
difference of opinion. Finance bills make money, but they make trouble,
too. Their existence is one of the chief points of contact between the
foreign exchange and the other markets, and one of the principal
reasons why a knowledge of foreign exchange is necessary to any
well-rounded understanding of banking conditions.
Strictly speaking, a finance-bill is a long draft drawn by a banker of
one country on a banker in another, sometimes secured by collateral,
but more often not, and issued by the drawing banker for the purpose of
raising money. Such bills are not always distinguishable from the bills
a banker in New York may draw on a banker in London in the operation of
lending money for him, but in nature they are essentially different.
The drawing of finance-bills was recently described by the foreign
exchange manager of one of the biggest houses in New York, during the
course of a public address, as a "scheme to raise the wind." Whether or
not any collateral is put up, the whole purpose of the drawing of
finance-bills is to provide an easy way of raising money without the
banker here having to go to some other bank to do it.
The origin of the ordinary finance-bill is about as follows: A bank
here in New York carries a good balance in London and works a
substantial foreign exchange business in connection with the London
bank where this balance is carried. A time comes when the New York
banking house could advantageously use more money. Arrangements are
therefore made with the London bank whereby the London bank agrees to
"accept" a certain amount of the American banker's long bills, for a
commission. In the course of his regular business, then, the American
banker simply draws that many more pounds sterling in long bills, sells
them, and for the time being has the use of the money. In the great
majority of cases no extra collateral is put up, nor is the London bank
especially secured in any way. The American banker's credit is good
enough to make the English banker willing, for a commission, to
"accept" his drafts and obligate himself that the drafts will be paid
at maturity. Naturally, a house has to be in good standing and enjoy
high credit not only here but on the other side before any reputable
London bank can be induced to "accept" its finance paper.
The ability to draw finance-bills of this kind often puts a house
disposed to take chances with the movement of the exchange market into
line for very considerable profit possibilities. Suppose, for instance,
that the manager of a house here figures that there is going to be a
sharp break in foreign exchange. He, therefore, sells a line of
ninety-day bills, putting himself technically short of the exchange
market and banking on the chance of being able to buy in his "cover"
cheaply when it comes time for him to cover. In the meantime he has the
use of the money he derived from the sale of the "nineties" to do with
as he pleases, and if he has figured the market aright, it may not cost
him any more per pound to buy his "cover" than he realized from the
sale of the long bills. In which case he would have had the use of the
money for the whole three months practically free of interest.
It is plain speculating in exchange--there is no getting away from it,
and yet this practice of selling finance-bills gives such an
opportunity to the exchange manager shrewd enough to read the situation
aright to make money, that many of the big houses go in for it to a
large extent. During the summer, for instance, if the outlook is for
big crops, the situation is apt to commend itself to this kind of
operation. Money in the summer months is apt to be low and exchange
high, affording a good basis on which to sell exchange. Then, if the
expected crops materialize, large amounts of exchange drawn against
exports will come into the market, forcing down rates and giving the
operator who has previously sold his long bills an excellent chance to
cover them profitably as they come due.
About the best example of how exchange managers can be deceived in
their forecasts is afforded by the movement of exchange during the
summer and fall of 1909. Impelled thereto by the brilliant crop
prospects of early summer, foreign exchange houses in New York drew and
sold finance-bills in enormous volume. The corn crop was to run over
three billion bushels, affording an unprecedented exportable
surplus--wheat and cotton were both to show record-breaking yields. But
instead of these promises being fulfilled, wheat and corn showed only
average yields, while the cotton crop turned out decidedly short. The
expected flood of exchange never materialized. On the contrary, rise in
money rates abroad caused such a paying off of foreign loans and
maturing finance bills that foreign exchange rose to the gold export
point and "covering" operations were conducted with extreme difficulty.
In the foreign exchange market the autumn of 1909 will long be
remembered as a time when the finance-bill sellers had administered to
them a lesson which they will be a good while in forgetting.
6. _Arbitraging in Exchange_
Arbitraging in exchange--the buying by a New York banker, for instance,
through the medium of the London market, of exchange drawn on Paris, is
another broad and profitable field for the operations of the expert
foreign exchange manager. Take, for example, a time when exchange on
Paris is more plentiful in London than in New York--a shrewd New York
exchange manager needing a draft on Paris might well secure it in
London rather than in his home city. The following operation is only
one of ten thousand in which exchange men are continually engaged, but
is a representative transaction and one on which a good deal of the
business in the arbitration of exchange is based.
Suppose, for instance, that in New York, demand exchange on Paris is
quoted at five francs seventeen and one-half centimes per dollar,
demand exchange on London at $4.84 per pound, and that, _in London_,
exchange on Paris is obtainable at twenty-five francs twenty-five
centimes per pound. The following operation would be possible:
Sale by a New York banker of a draft on Paris, say, for francs 25,250,
at 5.17-1/2, bringing him in $4,879.23. Purchase by same banker of a
draft on London for L1,000, at 4.84, costing him $4,840. Instructions
by the American banker to his London correspondent to buy a check on
Paris for francs 25,250 in London, and to send it over to Paris for the
credit of his (the American banker's account). Such a draft, at 25.25
would cost just L1,000.
The circle would then be complete. The American banker who originally
drew the francs 25,250 on his Paris balance would have replaced that
amount in his Paris balance through the aid of his London
correspondent. The London correspondent would have paid out L1,000 from
the American banker's balance with him, a draft for which amount would
come in the next mail. All parties to the transaction would be
satisfied--especially the banker who started it, for whereas he paid
out $4,840 for the L1,000 draft on London, he originally took in
$4,879.23 for the draft he sold on Paris.
Between such cities as have been used in the foregoing illustrations
rates are not apt to be wide enough apart to afford any such actual
profit, but the chance for arbitraging does exist and is being
continuously taken advantage of. So keenly, indeed, are the various
rates in their possible relation to one another watched by the exchange
men that it is next to impossible for them to "open up" to any
appreciable extent. The chance to make even a slight profit by shifting
balances is so quickly availed of that in the constant demand for
exchange wherever any relative weakness is shown, there exists a force
which keeps the whole structure at parity. The ability to buy drafts on
Paris relatively much cheaper at London than at New York, for instance,
would be so quickly taken advantage of by half a dozen watchful
exchange men that the London rate on Paris would quickly enough be
driven up to its right relative position.
It is impossible in this brief treatise to give more than a suggestion
of the various kinds of exchange arbitration being carried on all the
time. Experts do not confine their operations to the main centers, nor
is three necessarily the largest number of points which figure in
transactions of this sort. Elaborate cable codes and a constant use of
the wires keep the up-to-date exchange manager in touch with the
movement of rates in every part of Europe. If a chance exists to sell a
draft on London and then to put the requisite balance there through an
arbitration involving Paris, Brussels, and Amsterdam, the chances are
that there will be some shrewd manager who will find it out and put
through the transaction. Some of the larger banking houses employ men
who do little but look for just such opportunities. When times are
normal, the margin of profit is small, but in disturbed markets the
parities are not nearly so closely maintained and substantial profits
are occasionally made. The business, however, is of the most difficult
character, requiring not only great shrewdness and judgment but
exceptional mechanical facilities.
7. _Dealing in "Futures_"
As a means of making--or of losing--money, in the foreign exchange
business, the dealing in contracts for the future delivery of exchange
has, perhaps, no equal. And yet trading in futures is by no means
necessarily speculation. There are at least two broad classes of
legitimate operation in which the buying and selling of contracts of
exchange for future delivery plays a vital part.
Take the case of a banker who has bought and remitted to his foreign
correspondent a miscellaneous lot of foreign exchange made up to the
extent of one-half, perhaps, of commercial long bills with documents
deliverable only on "payment" of the draft. That means that if the
whole batch of exchange amounted to L50,000, L25,000 of it might not
become an available balance on the other side for a good while after it
had arrived there--not until the parties on whom the "payment" bills
were drawn chose to pay them off under rebate. The exchange rate, in
the meantime, might do almost anything, and the remitting banker might
at the end of thirty or forty-five days find himself with a balance
abroad on which he could sell his checks only at very low rates.
To protect himself in such case the banker would, at the time he sent
over the commercial exchange, sell his own demand drafts for future
delivery. Suppose that he had sent over L25,000 of commercial "payment"
bills. Unable to tell exactly when the proceeds would become available,
the banker buying the bills would nevertheless presumably have had
experience with bills of the same name before and would be able to form
a pretty accurate estimate as to when the drawees would be likely to
"take them up" under rebate. It would be reasonably safe, for instance,
for the banker to sell futures as follows: L5,000 deliverable in
fifteen days; L10,000 deliverable in thirty days, L10,000 deliverable
in from forty-five to sixty days. Such drafts on being presented could
in all probability be taken care of out of the prepayments on the
commercial bills.
By figuring with judgment, foreign exchange bankers are often able to
make substantial profits on operations of this kind. An exchange broker
comes in and offers a banker here a lot of good "payment" commercial
bills. The banker finds that he can sell his own draft for delivery at
about the time the commercial drafts are apt to be paid under rebate,
at a price which means a good net profit. The operation ties up
capital, it is true, but is without risk. Not infrequently good
commercial "payment" bills can be bought at such a price and bankers'
futures sold against them at such a price that there is a substantial
profit to be made.
The other operation is the sale of bankers' futures, not against
remittances of actual commercial exchange but against exporters'
futures. Exporters of merchandise frequently quote prices to customers
abroad for shipment to be made in some following month, to establish
which fixed price the exporter has to fix a rate of exchange definitely
with some banker. "I am going to ship so-and-so so many tubs of lard
next May," says the exporter to the banker, "the drafts against them
will amount to so-and-so-much. What rate will you pay me for
them--delivery next May?" The banker knows he can sell his own draft
for May delivery for, say, 4.87. He bids the exporter 4.86-1/2 for his
lard bills, and gets the contract. Without any risk and without tying
up a dollar of capital the banker has made one-half cent per pound
sterling on the whole amount of the shipment. In May, the lard bills
will come in to him, and he will pay for them at a rate of 4.86-1/2,
turning around and delivering his own draft against them at 4.87.
Selling futures against futures is not the easiest form of foreign
exchange business to put through, but when a house has a large number
of commercial exporters among its clients there are generally to be
found among them some who want to sell their exchange for future
delivery. As to the buyer of the banker's "future," such a buyer might
be, for instance, another banker who had sold finance-bills and wants
to limit the cost of "covering" them.
The foregoing examples of dealing in futures are merely examples of how
futures may figure in every-day exchange transactions. Like operations
in exchange arbitrage, there is no limit to the number of kinds of
business in which "futures" may figure. They are a much abused
institution, but are a vital factor in modern methods of transacting
foreign exchange business.
The foregoing are the main forms of activity of the average foreign
department, though there are, of course, many other ways of making
money out of foreign exchange. The business of granting commercial
credits, the exporting and importing of gold and the business of
international trading in securities will be taken up separately in
following chapters.