[Russkia Vedomosti, No. 167, July 22, (Aug. 4,) 1914, P. 4.]
_Prof. Migoulin, member of the Council of the Russian Ministry
of Finance and the author of several works on Russian
indebtedness, in his article, published immediately after the
beginning of the war and evidently written before the position
of Italy had become known, thus sums up the war situation:_
The moment for the declaration of war has been well chosen and carefully
planned by Germany and Austria. Russia had her hands full with the
numerous labor strikes and poor crops in certain parts of the country.
England had her troubles with the Ulsterites, and the President of
France was absent from his country when the Austrian ultimatum was
handed to Servia.
Austria had already mobilized large numbers of her troops in Bosnia
under the pretext of manoeuvres, Italy had a partial mobilization, and
Germany was preparing herself for a grand army show.
The German strategists are looking for a brief campaign. But they are
mistaken. Even with the capture of Petrograd the war will have barely
begun, for Petrograd is only the frontier of Russia.
Our troops are numerous and well equipped. The vastness of our country,
her poor roads, and her severe climate are her defenses. The French
frontier is strongly fortified. A quick surrender is unthinkable, and
there is no reason for surrender, for the war will continue to the
bitter end.
But a long campaign threatens Germany. She is a country with highly
developed industry and with a tremendous foreign commerce, the breakdown
of which cannot be compensated by any territorial conquest. A war of
Germany against England, France, and Russia will stop her commerce
entirely. It will be impossible for her to export her goods and to
import foodstuffs. Her manufactures and her commerce will come to a
deadlock, and unemployment will threaten her cities. All the victories
of her army will be of no avail. If her enemies draw out the war for a
year or two Germany will be exhausted. We are not talking of the
possibility of a German defeat, although Germany is not invincible.
The gold reserve of Russia, France, and England amount to about
350,000,000 rubles, ($155,000,000,) while the gold reserve of Germany,
Austria, and Italy is only about 160,000,000 rubles.
The gold currency of the first three countries amounts to about
7,000,000,000 rubles, ($3,500,000,000,) while the gold currency of the
other three is only $1,500,000,000.
The food supply of Russia is inexhaustible. Her industries are working
chiefly for the home market. They can only win by the campaign. The
curtailing of food and raw material exports may benefit her home
industries by cheapening production.
In case of a shortage of war supplies Russia will be able to get them
from neutral countries--for example, from the United States. But where
will Germany get them? What shall she do when her stock of saltpetre
runs out? For the time being saltpetre is obtained by all countries from
Chile only.
France is an agricultural country which has large supplies of food. Her
manufactures are poorly developed, and they are working for a foreign
market which will not be closed. Her resources are so large that she
will be able to stand the campaign with comparative ease.
Owing to her insular position, England will lose but very little through
this war, provided she is able to maintain the supremacy of her navy
over the German fleet. The British merchant marine and her manufactures
will gain quite considerably.
The public credit of France and Great Britain is inexhaustible, and it
will not be restricted to Russia, while she is an ally of these
countries.