On the military side, these calculations proved surprisingly accurate.
The victorious Japanese troops _were_ entering Nanking in mid-December.
And all the strategic railways in North China _were_ under Japan’s
control. But these military successes did not lead to the expected
peace settlement. China’s national unity held firm, and Chinese
resistance continued. If Japan wished to dictate peace terms, she would
have to wage further battle.
This she proceeded to do. Two big campaigns were fought during 1938.
In May, after a bitter struggle in Shantung province, Japan’s northern
and southern armies were able to join forces. In October, after an
exhausting advance up the Yangtze River, the Japanese captured Hankow.
A lightning blow in the south led to the occupation of Canton.
China’s main cities, and much of her railway system, were now in
Japanese hands. But still there was no sign of peace. By the end of
1938, it was clear that, despite her military triumphs, Japan had
not won victory. The war had lasted eighteen months, instead of six.
In lives and money, it had cost Japan far more than the original
reckoning. And the end was not in sight.
What was happening at home during these first eighteen months of the
war? Three main trends were clear. First, all popular opposition to
the war was suppressed. Second, the military took over conduct of
affairs in China, allowing the Cabinet little or no say. And third,
a “controlled economy” was set up, although the army leaders did not
succeed in getting it into their hands. The business houses either
pared down the controls, or decided how they were to be applied.