Success is the joint result of the natural powers of mind and body,
and of favourable circumstances. Those of the latter which fall into
definite groups will be distinguished as "environment," while the
others, which evade classification, will be called "accidental."
The superstitions of old times cling so tenaciously to modern thought
that the words "accident" and "chance" commonly connote some
mysterious agency. Nothing of the kind is implied here. The word
"accident" and the like is used in these pages simply to express the
effect of unknown or unnoted causes, without the slightest
implication that they are unknowable. In most cases their neglect has
been partly due to their individual insignificance, though their
combined effect may be very powerful when a multitude work in the
same direction. Moreover, a trifling pressure at the right spot
suffices to release a hair-trigger and thereby to cause an explosion;
similarly, with personal and social events, a trifling accident will
sometimes determine a career.
Noteworthiness and success may be regarded statistically as the
outcome of ability and environment and of nothing else, because the
effects of chance tend to be eliminated by statistical treatment. The
question then becomes, How far may noteworthiness be accepted as a
statistical measure of ability?
Ability and environment are each composed of many elements that
differ greatly in character. Ability may be especially strong in
particular directions as in administration, art, scholarship, or
science; it is, nevertheless, so adaptive that an able man has often
found his way to the front under more than one great change of
circumstance. The force that impels towards noteworthy deeds is an
innate disposition in some men, depending less on circumstances than
in others. They are like ships that carry an auxiliary steam-power,
capable of moving in a dead calm and against adverse winds. Others
are like the ordinary sailing ships of the present day--they are
stationary in a calm, but can make some way towards their destination
under almost any wind. Without a stimulus of some kind these men are
idle, but almost any kind of stimulus suffices to set them in action.
Others, again, are like Arab dhows, that do little more than drift
before the monsoon or other wind; but then they go fast.
Environment is a more difficult topic to deal with, because
conditions that are helpful to success in one pursuit may be
detrimental in another. High social rank and wealth conduce to
success in political life, but their distractions and claims clash
with quiet investigation. Successes are of the most varied
descriptions, but those registered in this book are confined to such
as are reputed honourable, and are not obviously due to favour.
In attacking the problem it therefore becomes necessary to fix the
attention, in the first instance, upon the members of some one large,
special profession, as upon artists, leaders in commerce,
investigators, scholars, warriors, and so forth, then to divide these
into subclasses, until more appears to be lost through paucity of
material than is gained through its increasing homogeneity.
Whatever group be selected, both ability and environment must be
rated according to the requirements of that group. It then becomes
possible, and it is not difficult, to roughly array individuals under
each of these two heads successively, and to label every person with
letters signifying his place in either class. For purposes of the
following explanation, each quality will be distributed into three
grades, determined not by value, but by class place--namely, the
highest third, the medium third, and the lowest third. In respect to
ability, these classes will be called A, B, and C. In respect to
environment, the grades will refer to its helpfulness towards the
particular success achieved, and the classes will be called E, F, G.
It must be clearly understood that the differences between the grades
do not profess to be equal, merely that A is higher than B, and B
than C; similarly as to E, F, and G. The A, B, C may be quite
independent of E, F, G, or they may be correlated. Both cases will
be considered.
Ability and Environment being mutually helpful towards success, the
successes statistically associated with AE will be reckoned higher
than those associated with AF. Again, for simplicity of explanation
only, it will here be assumed that Ability and Environment are
equally potent in securing success. Any other reasonable relation
between their influences may be substituted for the purpose of
experiment, but the ultimate conclusion will be much the same.
TABLE I.--COMBINATIONS OF ABILITY AND ENVIRONMENT.
+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| AE. I. | AF. I. | AG. II. |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| BE. I. | BF. II. | BG. III. |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| CE. II. | CF. III. | CG. III. |
+-------------+-------------+-------------+
First, suppose Ability and Environment to be entirely independent, A
being as frequently associated with E as it is with F or with G;
similarly as regards B and C, then the nine combinations shown in
Table I. will be equally frequent. These tabular entries fall into
three equal groups. The three that lie in and about the upper
left-hand corner contain the highest constituents--namely, either
_high_ combined with _high_, or one _high_ with one _medium_. They
produce Successes of Grade I. The three in the middle diagonal band
running between the lower left and the upper right corners are either
one _high_ and one _low_, or both are _medium_; they will produce
Successes of Grade II. The three in and about the right-hand corner
are either one _medium_ with one _low_, or both are _low_; they will
produce Successes of Grade III. This is still more clearly seen by
sorting the results into Table II., from which it is clear that a
high grade of Success is statistically associated with a high, but
less, grade of Ability, a medium with a medium, and a low grade of
Success with a low, but less low, grade of Ability.
TABLE II.--ABILITY INDEPENDENT OF ENVIRONMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________
| | | |
| Grades of | | |
| Success. | Contributory Combinations. | Corresponding Abilities. |
|___________|_____________________________|___________________________|
| | | | | | | |
| I. | AE | AF | BE | 2 of A | 1 of B | -- |
| II. | AG | BF | CE | 1 of A | 1 of B | 1 of C |
| III. | CG | BG | CF | -- | 1 of B | 2 of C |
|___________|_________|_________|_________|_________|________|________|
Secondly, suppose A, B, C to be correlated with E, F, G, so that A is
more likely to be associated with E than it is with F, and much more
likely than with G. Similarly, C is most likely to be associated with
G, less likely with F, and least likely with E. The general effect of
these preferences will be well represented by divorcing the couples
which differ by two grades--namely, AG and CE, by re-mating their
constituents as AE and CG, and by re-sorting them, as in Table III.
The couples that differ by no more than one grade are left
undisturbed. The results now fall into five grades of Success, in
four of which each grade contains two-ninths of the whole number, and
one, the medium Grade 3, contains only one-ninth.
As remarked previously, the grades are not supposed to be separated
by equal steps. They are numbered in ordinary numerals to distinguish
them from those in Table II.
TABLE III.--ABILITY CORRELATED WITH ENVIRONMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________
| | | |
| Grades of Success. | Contributory | Corresponding Abilities. |
| | Combinations. | |
|____________________|_______________|________________________________|
| | | | | | |
| 1 | AE | AE | 2 of A | -- | -- |
| 2 | AF | BE | 1 of A | 1 of B | -- |
| 3 | BF | -- | -- | 1 of B | -- |
| 4 | BG | CF | -- | 1 of B | 1 of C |
| 5 | CG | CG | -- | -- | 2 of C |
|____________________|_______|_______|__________|__________|__________|
It clearly appears from this table that the effect of correlation
between Ability and Environment is to increase, and not to diminish,
the closeness of association between Success and Ability. Indeed, if
the correlation were perfect, Success would become an equal measure
_both_ of Ability and of Favourableness of Environment.
These arguments are true for each and every branch of Success, and
are therefore true for all: Ability being construed as Appropriate
Ability, and Environment as Appropriate Environment.
The general conclusion is that Success is, statistically speaking, a
magnified, but otherwise trustworthy, sign of Ability, high Success
being associated with high, but not an equally high, grade of
Ability, and low with low, but not an equally low. A few instances to
the contrary no more contradict this important general conclusion
than a few cases of death at very early or at very late ages
contradict the tables of expectation of life of a newly-born infant.