[Illustration: Campaigns 1859-71]
THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE
EUROPEAN NATIONS
1870-1914
BY
J. HOLLAND ROSE LITT.D.
FELLOW OF CHRIST'S COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE
AUTHOR OF 'THE LIFE OF NAPOLEON,' 'THE LIFE OF WILLIAM PITT,'
'THE ORIGINS OF THE WAR,' ETC.
'Felix qui potuit rerum cognoscere causas.'--VIRGIL.
FIFTH EDITION, WITH A NEW PREFACE AND
THREE SUPPLEMENTARY CHAPTERS
1915
_First Edition . . October 1905.
Second " . . November 1905.
Third " . . December 1911.
Fourth " . . November 1914.
Fifth " . . October 1915._
TO
MY WIFE
WITHOUT WHOSE HELP
THIS WORK
COULD NOT HAVE BEEN COMPLETED
PREFACE TO THE FIFTH EDITION
In this Edition are included three new chapters (Nos. XXI.-XXIII.), in
which I seek to describe the most important and best-ascertained facts
of the period 1900-14. Necessarily, the narrative is tentative at many
points; and it is impossible to attain impartiality; but I have sought
to view events from the German as well as the British standpoint, and to
sum up the evidence fairly. The addition of these chapters has
necessitated the omission of the former Epilogue and Appendices. I
regret the sacrifice of the Epilogue, for it emphasised two important
considerations, (1) the tendency of British foreign policy towards undue
complaisance, which by other Powers is often interpreted as weakness;
(2) the danger arising from the keen competition in armaments. No one
can review recent events without perceiving the significance of these
considerations. Perhaps they may prove to be among the chief causes
producing the terrible finale of July-August 1914. I desire to express
my acknowledgments and thanks for valuable advice given by Mr. J.W.
Headlam, M.A., Mr. A.B. Hinds, M.A., and Dr. R.W. Seton-Watson, D. Litt.
J.H.R.
CAMBRIDGE,
_September_ 5, 1915.
PREFACE TO THE FOURTH EDITION
The outbreak of war in Europe is an event too momentous to be treated
fully in this Preface. But I may point out that the catastrophe resulted
from the two causes of unrest described in this volume, namely, the
Alsace-Lorraine Question and the Eastern Question. Those disputes have
dragged on without any attempt at settlement by the Great Powers. The
Zabern incident inflamed public opinion in Alsace-Lorraine, and
illustrated the overbearing demeanour of the German military caste;
while the insidious attempts of Austria in 1913 to incite Bulgaria
against Servia marked out the Hapsburg Empire as the chief enemy of the
Slav peoples of the Balkan Peninsula after the collapse of Turkish power
in 1912. The internal troubles of the United Kingdom, France, and Russia
in July 1914 furnished the opportunity so long sought by the forward
party at Berlin and Vienna; and the Austro-German Alliance, which, in
its origin, was defensive (as I have shown in this volume), became
offensive, Italy parting from her allies when she discovered their
designs. Drawn into the Triple Alliance solely by pique against France
after the Tunis affair, she now inclines towards the Anglo-French
connection.
Readers of my chapter on the Eastern Question will not fail to see how
the neglect of the Balkan peoples by the Great Powers has left that
wound festering in the weak side of Europe; and they will surmise that
the Balkan troubles have, by a natural Nemesis, played their part in
bringing about the European War. It is for students of modern Europe to
seek to form a healthy public opinion so that the errors of the past may
not be repeated, and that the new Europe shall be constituted in
conformity with the aspirations of the peoples themselves.
CAMBRIDGE,
_September_ 25, 1914.
PREFACE
The line of Virgil quoted on the title-page represents in the present
case a sigh of aspiration, not a paean of achievement. No historical
student, surely, can ever feel the conviction that he has fathomed the
depths of that well where Truth is said to lie hid. What, then, must be
the feelings of one who ventures into the mazy domain of recent annals,
and essays to pick his way through thickets all but untrodden? More than
once I have been tempted to give up the quest and turn aside to paths
where pioneers have cleared the way. There, at least, the whereabouts of
that fabulous well is known and the plummet is ready to hand.
Nevertheless, I resolved to struggle through with my task, in the
consciousness that the work of a pioneer may be helpful, provided that
he carefully notches the track and thereby enables those who come after
him to know what to seek and what to avoid.
After all, there is no lack of guides in the present age. The number of
memoir-writers and newspaper correspondents is legion; and I have come
to believe that they are fully as trustworthy as similar witnesses have
been in any age. The very keenness of their rivalry is some guarantee
for truth. Doubtless competition for good "copy" occasionally leads to
artful embroidering on humdrum actuality; but, after spending much time
in scanning similar embroidery in the literature of the Napoleonic Era,
I unhesitatingly place the work of Archibald Forbes, and that of several
knights of the pen still living, far above the delusive tinsel of
Marbot, Thiébault, and Ségur. I will go further and say that, if we
could find out what were the sources used by Thucydides, we should
notice qualms of misgiving shoot through the circles of scientific
historians as they contemplated his majestic work. In any case, I may
appeal to the example of the great Athenian in support of the thesis
that to undertake to write contemporary history is no vain thing.
Above and beyond the accounts of memoir-writers and newspaper
correspondents there are Blue Books. I am well aware that they do not
always contain the whole truth. Sometimes the most important items are
of necessity omitted. But the information which they contain is
enormous; and, seeing that the rules of the public service keep the
original records in Great Britain closed for well-nigh a century, only
the most fastidious can object to the use of the wealth of materials
given to the world in _Parliamentary Papers_.
Besides these published sources there is the fund of information
possessed by public men and the "well-informed" of various grades.
Unfortunately this is rarely accessible, or only under conventional
restrictions. Here and there I have been able to make use of it without
any breach of trust; and to those who have enlightened my darkness I am
very grateful. The illumination, I know, is only partial; but I hope
that its effect, in respect to the twilight of diplomacy, may be
compared to that of the Aurora Borealis lights.
After working at my subject for some time, I found it desirable to limit
it to events which had a distinctly formative influence on the
development of European States. On questions of motive and policy I have
generally refrained from expressing a decided verdict, seeing that these
are always the most difficult to probe; and facile dogmatism on them is
better fitted to omniscient leaderettes than to the pages of an
historical work. At the same time, I have not hesitated to pronounce a
judgment on these questions, and to differ from other writers, where the
evidence has seemed to me decisive. To quote one instance, I reject the
verdict of most authorities on the question of Bismarck's treatment of
the Ems telegram, and of its effect in the negotiations with France in
July 1870.
For the most part, however, I have dealt only with external events,
pointing out now and again the part which they have played in the great
drama of human action still going on around us. This limitation of aim
has enabled me to take only specific topics, and to treat them far more
fully than is done in the brief chronicle of facts presented by MM.
Lavisse and Rambaud in the concluding volume of their _Histoire
Générale_. Where a series of events began in the year 1899 or 1900, and
did not conclude before the time with which this narrative closes, I
have left it on one side. Obviously the Boer War falls under this head.
Owing to lack of space my references to the domestic concerns of the
United Kingdom have been brief. I have regretfully omitted one imperial
event of great importance, the formation of the Australian Commonwealth.
After all, that concerned only the British race; and in my survey of the
affairs of the Empire I have treated only those which directly affected
other nations as well, namely the Afghan and Egyptian questions and the
Partition of Africa. Here I have sought to show the connection with
"world politics," and I trust that even specialists will find something
new and suggestive in this method of treatment.
In attempting to write a history of contemporary affairs, I regard it as
essential to refer to the original authority, or authorities, in the
case of every important statement. I have sought to carry out this rule
(though at the cost of great additional toil) because it enables the
reader to check the accuracy of the narrative and to gain hints for
further reading. To compile bibliographies, where many new books are
coming out every year, is a useless task; but exact references to the
sources of information never lose their value.
My thanks are due to many who have helped me in this undertaking. Among
them I may name Sir Charles Dilke, M.P., Mr. James Bryce, M.P., and Mr.
Chedo Mijatovich, who have given me valuable advice on special topics.
My obligations are also due to a subject of the Czar, who has placed
his knowledge at my service, but for obvious reasons does not wish his
name to be known. Mr. Bernard Pares, M.A., of the University of
Liverpool, has very kindly read over the proofs of the early chapters,
and has offered most helpful suggestions. Messrs. G. Bell and Sons have
granted me permission to make use of the plans of the chief battles of
the Franco-German War from Mr. Hooper's work, _Sedan and the Downfall of
the Second Empire_, published by them. To Mr. H.W. Wilson, author of
_Ironclads in Action_, my thanks are also due for permission to make use
of the plan illustrating the fighting at Alexandria in 1882.
J.H.R.
_July, 1905._
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER I
THE CAUSES OF THE FRANCO-GERMAN WAR.