That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s
time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth
about 400,000.
That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain
somewhat above 2,000,000.
That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might
contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the
people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.
That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to
come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000
people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will
be then about three acres and a half per head.
That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last
preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have
been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:—
Anno Domini. Number of people. Increase every hundred
years.
1300 2,800,000
1400 3,300,000 440,000.
1500 3,840,000 540,000.
1600 4,620,000 780,000.
1700 5,500,000 880,000.
1800 6,420,000 920,000.
1900 7,350,000 930,000.
2000 8,280,000 930,000.
2100 9,205,000 925,000.
2200 10,115,000 910,000.
2300 11,000,000 885,000.
Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000
people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding
hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls
per annum.
But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are 190,000 souls.
about 1 in 28.95, or
And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls.
Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls.
It is to be noted— Per ann.
1. That the allowance for 4,000
plagues and great mortalities
may come to at a medium
2. Foreign or civil wars at a 3,500
medium
3. The sea constantly employing 2,500
about 40,000, may precipitate
the death of about
4. The plantations (over and 1,000
above the accession of
foreigners) may carry away
11,000 per
annum.
Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls.
That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the
kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.
The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls.
The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by 2,000 souls.
procreation
But London and the bills of mortality decrease 2,000 souls.
annually
So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from
decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its
increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s
net increase.
Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births,
and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish
registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and
burials are according to the following scheme
_Vide_ Scheme A.
Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71
or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in
towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376
children.