1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, 6,025;
but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of housing, or
by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration.
For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263,
according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. 1671 should A.D. 1682
have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid,
when farming the hearth-money was in agitation.
2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-third of
the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the
one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near
the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were 17,500,
whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; whereas the
whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-third and better of the
said 5,833 more.
3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased
A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or,
according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025,
increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been
some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing be
very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of
them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely that when
1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8
inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be 48,000,
and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30,
would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason
I continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 houses
as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience
to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have increased from
3,850 to 6,025.
Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because
that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200;
whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the
aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to
be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is
the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will
ere long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries.
4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London,
just before the troubles in religion began, the births were five-sixths
of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of families in
London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not for want of
registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377,
there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births in Dublin for the
year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in
that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, when there died but
1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the
burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal books, which
must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin.
The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin are
rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register
their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none
have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased from
about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may
also be better had from direct inquiries.
OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE OF
THAT CITY.
THE observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new light
to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as
snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.
The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near one
hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills,
out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths
in each parish of Dublin, which are all digested into the one table or
sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed
the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to
peace and plenty.
_Observations upon the Table A_.
1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling years
mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth part is
20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the late bills
of that city.
2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth part
whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the burials, and
shows that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplied
out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, the
proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the city.
3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the sixth
part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part of the
London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the people of London
do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as those of Dublin.
4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part or
medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of the
1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials and births
are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are kept alike, and
consequently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy for that
purpose; which, if they be true, we then say—
5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the people
shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase and decrease
of people, that of burials being subject to more contingencies and
variety of causes.
6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the births
(as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths of the births
is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable for
extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the rule whereby to measure
the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin was 1,026, the
eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were 1,644; so as in
the said years they differed little from the 1,641, which was the
standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were
sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and
the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the
same number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births
differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, 1679,
1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births are very
occult and uncertain.