It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth in
London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred
years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great
plagues—viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to
be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth part
of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do double but in
360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but 20,000, and in
twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be
2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence), then the
plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years)
will destroy as many in one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in
twenty; and consequently the people of the nation shall never increase.
But if the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of
our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of the
whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if people be
worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said
greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of
£1,400,000 per annum, and so _pro rata_ for a greater or lesser number;
wherefore to determine which of the two states is best—that is to say,
towards which of the said two states authority should bend the present
state, a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the
plague, with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above
mentioned, unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a
better rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have
here given, or are yet able to lay down.