_There died in London at the medium between the years_—
1604 and 1605 5,135. A.
1621 and 1622 8,527 B.
1641 and 1642 11,883 C.
1661 and 1662 15,148. D.
1681 and 1682 22,331. E.
Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. That D
is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B within
293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B
and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C
within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences
(every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in
40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and
without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the
number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which,
multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page
of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because
there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at
8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts differing
inconsiderably from each other.
We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in
about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of
inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for
the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first
say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole
territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be
eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with which
account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the bishop’s late
numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore, although
the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated
truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we
want at present.
As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be
found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the
aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per
annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24
births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally
and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people
doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600
people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there shall die
12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the
people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently the
supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to
reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions were
not exact, we had rather call 1,200.
There are also other good observations, that even in the country one in
about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five births
for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will die per annum
out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be
five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we
have two fair computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and
there are also several other good observations for other measures.
I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation be
25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural
possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by
some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 are about
180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180
also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years;
from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for
sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there may remain 75
births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some observations we
have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what
is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, according to this
reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then
the annual increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people
may double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200
above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those
vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, and
pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births and 23
burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 births for 9
burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the
above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two-thirds, and the
increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a man, which number,
compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the time of
doubling (including some allowance for wars, plagues, and famines, the
effects thereof), though they be terrible at the times and places where
they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole
nation. For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried away
scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation; and the late
ten years’ civil wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages
before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people.
According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in
England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the
beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 at
the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord
Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.”
Memorandum.—That if the people double in 360 years, that the present
320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures of all the
nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and good accounts
of the people in several of them) to be now upon the face of the earth,
will within the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one head for
every two acres of land in the habitable part of the earth. And then,
according to the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, and
great slaughter, &c.
Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference between
10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this country, admit of
360 years to be the time wherein the people of England do double,
according to the present laws and practice of marriages.
Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present number be
670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360
years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it appears that A.D.
1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, and those of the whole
country but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. Wherefore it
is certain and necessary that the growth of the city must stop before the
said year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding
period, A.D. 1800, when the number of the city will be eight times its
present number, 5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will
be 4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works
necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following table,
viz.:—
A.D. Burials. People in People in
London. England.
1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929
As in the 1605 5,135
former table.
1642 11,883
1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230
1722 44,662
1762 89,324
1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650
1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389
Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people of all
England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop before the
said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height A.D.
1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above 4,000,000 for
the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid.
Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 years
for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:—To justify the
Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of the
people in ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of
the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might
grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to 8,000, and that in
350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and by
this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational conjecture are thought
to be now in the world), it will not be hard to compute how, in the
intermediate years, the growths may be made, according to what is set
down in the following table, wherein making the doubling to be ten years
at first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary
liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest,
which table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness
of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the
world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the
measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have
demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is
written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For if we
pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is the
fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would have been
but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being 800 years after
the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty years old (besides
those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were found upon an exact survey
appointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. And there would
have been about 8,000 in David’s time, when were found 1,100,000, of
above twenty years old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the
survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000. And
there would have been but a quarter of a million about the birth of
Christ, or Augustus’s time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great,
whereas our table makes 100,000,000. Where note, that the Israelites in
about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to David’s reign,
increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000.
On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the
world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no one
number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed several,
in order to make the following table, which we again desire historians to
correct, according to what they find in antiquity concerning the number
of the people in each age and country of the world.
We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some
sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by
saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter enough
for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less would the
surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas we did
(by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of men now living, and
also of those that had died since the beginning of the world, and did
withal show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, not
only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that whole
number; and that two mountains in that country were as weighty as all the
bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the world to the year
1680, when this dispute happened. For which purpose I have digressed
from my intended purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute
this hint further upon some more proper occasion.
A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL AGES OF
THE WORLD.
Periods of doubling A.D., after the Persons.
Flood.
In 10 years 1 8
10 16
20 32
30 64
40 128
50 256
60 512
70 1,024
80 2,048
90 4,096
100 8,000 and more.
120 16,000
In 20 years 140 32,000
In 30 years 170 64,000
200 128,000
40 240 256,000
50 290 512,000
60 350 1,000,000 and more.
70 420 2,000,000
100 520 4,000,000
190 710 8,000,000
290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses’
time.
400 1,400 32,000,000 about
David’s time.
550 1,950 64,000,000
750 2,700 128,000,000 about the
birth of Christ.
1,000 3,700 256,000,000
300
In 300 / 1,200 4,000 320,000,000
It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a different
number of years for the time of doubling the people in the several ages
of the world, and might have done the same for the several countries of
the world, and therefore the said several periods assigned to the whole
world in the lump may well enough consist with the 360 years especially
assigned to England, between this day and the Norman Conquest; and the
said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition between this time
and that of the world’s being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress
upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the
city of London.
We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods
thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same.
The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been as
follows, viz.:—From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country to
London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars during
that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London for their
more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 to 1670, the king’s
friends and party came to receive his favours after his happy
restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments
might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign
for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should pick
out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said period,
and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the
cause of every man’s sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore,
rather than so to say _quidlibet de quolibet_, I had rather quit even
what I have above said to be the cause of London’s increase from 1642 to
1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and
advantages that men find by living in great more than in small societies,
and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of this growth in the
consequences of the like, considered in greater characters and
proportions.
Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is
extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to draw
forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:—
The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London is
seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000
people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages,
there are but 2,710,000 more.
The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part
of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000,
and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus:
104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being
7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., in
1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of ground belonging to
each of them, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole
territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man that
pleases may examine upon a good map.
Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be the
most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings?
But this general question divides itself into the several questions,
relating to the following particulars, viz.:—