Economics acquired its dismal reputation by pretending to
be an exact science rather than a branch of mass
psychology. In truth it is a narrative struggling to describe
the aggregate behavior of humans. It seeks to cloak its
uncertainties and shifting fashions with mathematical
formulae and elaborate econometric computerized
models.
So much is certain, though - that people operate within
markets, free or regulated, patchy or organized. They
attach numerical (and emotional) values to their inputs
(work, capital) and to their possessions (assets, natural
endowments). They communicate these values to each
other by sending out signals known as prices.
Yet, this entire edifice - the market and its price
mechanism - critically depends on trust. If people do not
trust each other, or the economic "envelope" within which
they interact - economic activity gradually grinds to a halt.
There is a strong correlation between the general level of
trust and the extent and intensity of economic activity.
Francis Fukuyama, the political scientist, distinguishes
between high-trust and prosperous societies and low-trust
and, therefore, impoverished collectives. Trust underlies
economic success, he argued in a 1995 tome.
Trust is not a monolithic quantity. There are a few
categories of economic trust. Some forms of trust are akin
to a public good and are closely related to governmental
action or inaction, the reputation of the state and its
institutions, and its pronounced agenda. Other types of
trust are the outcomes of kinship, ethnic origin, personal
standing and goodwill, corporate brands and other data
generated by individuals, households, and firms.
I. Trust in the playing field
To transact, people have to maintain faith in a relevant
economic horizon and in the immutability of the
economic playing field or "envelope". Put less obscurely,
a few hidden assumptions underlie the continued
economic activity of market players.
They assume, for instance, that the market will continue to
exist for the foreseeable future in its current form. That it
will remain inert - unhindered by externalities like
government intervention, geopolitical upheavals, crises,
abrupt changes in accounting policies and tax laws,
hyperinflation, institutional and structural reform and
other market-deflecting events and processes.
They further assume that their price signals will not be
distorted or thwarted on a consistent basis thus skewing
the efficient and rational allocation of risks and rewards.
Insider trading, stock manipulation, monopolies, hoarding
- all tend to consistently but unpredictably distort price
signals and, thus, deter market participation.
Market players take for granted the existence and
continuous operation of institutions - financial
intermediaries, law enforcement agencies, courts. It is
important to note that market players prefer continuity and
certainty to evolution, however gradual and ultimately
beneficial. A venal bureaucrat is a known quantity and
can be tackled effectively. A period of transition to good
and equitable governance can be more stifling than any
level of corruption and malfeasance. This is why
economic activity drops sharply whenever institutions are
reformed.
II. Trust in other players
Market players assume that other players are (generally)
rational, that they have intentions, that they intend to
maximize their benefits and that they are likely to act on
their intentions in a legal (or rule-based), rational manner.
III. Trust in market liquidity
Market players assume that other players possess or have
access to the liquid means they need in order to act on
their intentions and obligations. They know, from
personal experience, that idle capital tends to dwindle and
that the only way to, perhaps, maintain or increase it is to
transact with others, directly or through intermediaries,
such as banks.
IV. Trust in others' knowledge and ability
Market players assume that other players possess or have
access to the intellectual property, technology, and
knowledge they need in order to realize their intentions
and obligations. This implicitly presupposes that all other
market players are physically, mentally, legally and
financially able and willing to act their parts as stipulated,
for instance, in contracts they sign.
The emotional dimensions of contracting are often
neglected in economics. Players assume that their
counterparts maintain a realistic and stable sense of self-
worth based on intimate knowledge of their own strengths
and weaknesses. Market participants are presumed to
harbor realistic expectations, commensurate with their
skills and accomplishments. Allowance is made for
exaggeration, disinformation, even outright deception -
but these are supposed to be marginal phenomena.
When trust breaks down - often the result of an external or
internal systemic shock - people react expectedly. The
number of voluntary interactions and transactions
decreases sharply. With a collapsed investment horizon,
individuals and firms become corrupt in an effort to
shortcut their way into economic benefits, not knowing
how long will the system survive. Criminal activity
increases.
People compensate with fantasies and grandiose delusions
for their growing sense of uncertainty, helplessness, and
fears. This is a self-reinforcing mechanism, a vicious
cycle which results in under-confidence and a fluctuating
self esteem. They develop psychological defence
mechanisms.
Cognitive dissonance ("I really choose to be poor rather
than heartless"), pathological envy (seeks to deprive
others and thus gain emotional reward), rigidity ("I am
like that, my family or ethnic group has been like that for
generations, there is nothing I can do"), passive-
aggressive behavior (obstructing the work flow,
absenteeism, stealing from the employer, adhering strictly
to arcane regulations) - are all reactions to a breakdown in
one or more of the four aforementioned types of trust.
Furthermore, people in a trust crisis are unable to
postpone gratification. They often become frustrated,
aggressive, and deceitful if denied. They resort to reckless
behavior and stopgap economic activities.
In economic environments with compromised and
impaired trust, loyalty decreases and mobility increases.
People switch jobs, renege on obligations, fail to repay
debts, relocate often. Concepts like exclusivity, the
sanctity of contracts, workplace loyalty, or a career path -
all get eroded. As a result, little is invested in the future, in
the acquisition of skills, in long term savings. Short-
termism and bottom line mentality rule.
The outcomes of a crisis of trust are, usually, catastrophic:
Economic activity is much reduced, human capital is
corroded and wasted, brain drain increases, illegal and
extra-legal activities rise, society is polarized between
haves and haves-not, interethnic and inter-racial tensions
increase. To rebuild trust in such circumstances is a
daunting task. The loss of trust is contagious and, finally,
it infects every institution and profession in the land. It is
the stuff revolutions are made of.