Any grouping of powers in a League of Peace which leaves Germany out of
the account must fail. There is no doubt that peace in Europe could be
brought about quickly if Germany would offer moderate terms. For so
far as the war has proceeded Germany is actually the victor. If peace
were declared now on the basis of the status quo, Germany would be in
possession of foreign soil which would vastly increase her resources and
her prestige, and would have an army in being and stores of ammunition
surpassing that of all the other belligerents combined. If Germany would
enter into a League of Peace with the other great powers to compel the
peace of the world, there would be no doubt of the ability of such a
league to keep any and all nations from war; but with Germany left
out, her veto upon any plan of compulsory peace would be sufficient to
wreck it. We are only stating the situation as it stands to-day. What
changes in it the future will make we cannot predict. It is evident that
Germany’s power cannot be materially crippled except by a long war. If
the Allies can hold her in check and continue to hold the seas, that may
bring about German exhaustion of which there are no signs at present.
Such a prolongation of the war will also bring about the exhaustion
of the other nations, so that their people will be ready for a just
international arrangement to insure universal peace. But even then
Germany will be a power to be reckoned with, and any League of Peace or
International Bund that aims to be effective will have to include the
great Germanic peoples.