Thinking along these lines it is not difficult to conjure up a picture
of some of the difficult physical and social problems which will be
facing the Earth in the years which stretch ahead. The foregoing
sections of this report, for example, have already indicated extensive
difficulties inherent in at least five major categories.
(1) Bursting population.
(2) Acute water shortage.
(3) Soil erosion and disappearance.
(4) Too much leisure.
(5) Intensified nationalism.
In each area it is probable that space exploration will ultimately play
an important role.
_Population_
Social scientists have been warning for years of the drastic social
upheavals which must inevitably accompany an "exploding" population. It
is a problem the complexity of which grows in geometric progression as
time goes on. In the United States nearly 300 years were required to
produce 90 million people. In the past 60 years this number has doubled.
The implications are obvious. They are only too plain to urban and
suburban planners who endeavor to cope with the antlike construction and
activity of the human race as it burgeons with each succeeding year.
Of course, this is not a domestic matter but a global one. Its
seriousness has been described as follows: "Projection of the post-World
War II rate of increase gives a population of 50 billions (the highest
estimate of the population-carrying capacity of the globe ever
calculated by a responsible scholar) in less than 200 years."[72] A
European professor of medicine adds that any surge in human longevity at
this time is quite undesirable from the standpoint of making elderly
persons useful or cared for. "The problems posed by the explosive growth
of populations * * * are so great that it is quite reassuring to know
that biologists and medical men have so far been unsuccessful in
increasing the _maximum_ lifespan of the human species * * * and * * *
it would be a calamity for the social and economic structure of a
country if the mean lifespan were suddenly to increase from 65 to 85
years."[73]
Some anthropologists pessimistically wonder if man is going to prove
like the locust by populating himself into near extinction from time to
time.
Without subscribing to this view, one must nevertheless take notice of
the difficulties posed by population increase, not merely those of food,
shelter, education, and the like but also those resulting from cellular,
cramped, close living.
Whichever phase of the problem is studied, it seems not unreasonable to
conclude that space research will help find a solution. New ways to
produce food, new materials for better shelter, new stimuli for
education--all of these are coming from our space program. As for the
matter of adequate living room, space research may result in ways to
permit an easy and efficient scattering of the population without
hurting its mobility. This might result from the development of small
subsidiary types of craft, or "gocarts," originally designed for local
exploration on other planets. Such craft, whether they operated by air
cushion, nuclear energy, gravitational force, power cell, or whatever,
conceivably would permit Earth's population to spread out without the
need for expensive new roads--which, by the way, take millions of acres
of land out of productive use.
A development of this sort, together with new power sources to replace
the fossil fuels on which factory, home, and vehicle now depend, might
also all but eliminate the growing smog and air-pollution blight.
_Water shortage_
A direct result of the population increase, multiplied by the many new
uses for which water is being used in home appliances, etc., and plus
the greatly increased demand for standard uses such as indoor plumbing,
irrigation, and factory processing, is the likelihood that water
shortage will be high on the list of future problems. Ways to conserve
and reuse water, together with economical desalting of sea water, will
be essential in the decades ahead. Space research may provide part of
the answer here, too. (See New Water Sources and Uses, sec. III.)
_Soil erosion_
The Russian steppes of Kazakhstan are providing the world with a great
contemporary dust bowl, reminiscent of the middle 1930's when dust from
the Great Plains stretched from Texas to Saskatchewan. Questionable
agriculture policies, drought, and strong easterly winds are among the
forces blamed for the trials of southern Russia.[74] So great is the
extent of this disturbance that the dust cloud has been identified in
photographs taken by American weather satellites.
Of course, "wind erosion is only one of the processes whereby the
Earth's arable land is diminishing and the deserts increasing; erosion
by water can also sweep away the soil."[75] But insofar as the current
dust bowl of the Soviet steppes has "diminished food resources at a time
when the number of mouths to feed is increasing so rapidly, the world is
the poorer."[76]
What can space research do about this vital trend, which again seems
destined to accelerate in the future?
While we cannot be sure, we can conjecture that improved soil
conservation might turn out to be the greatest benefit of weather
understanding and modification. Agriculture policies might be adapted to
the long-range patterns uncovered by weather satellites and, eventually,
through better understanding of the making of weather, it may be
possible to modify weather forces in a manner which will preserve the
soil.
In a more remote vein, it may be that knowledge gained from a first-hand
study of the Moon or other planets in the solar system will eventually
contribute to the conservation of soil on Earth in ways as yet
unimagined.
_Added leisure_
Acquiring more time for leisure sounds good. Very much more leisure than
most people now have, however, is apt to present trouble in itself.
Since it appears that the time is not far away when those living in the
highly developed countries will no longer have to concentrate their
prime energies on the traditional quest for food, clothing, and shelter,
a potentially dangerous vacuum may be the result. At least the
psychologists seem agreed that people must feel a useful purpose in
their lives and have ways to pursue it.
Above all, leisure makes a challenge to the human spirit. Athens,
in her Golden Age, displayed a genius for the creative use of
leisure which can be seen as complementary, and indeed superior, to
her genius for military and commercial ventures. There have also
been such periods of all-pervasive inspiration in the history of
other peoples * * *. The doubling of our standard of living will
present a growing challenge to the human spirit and produce graver
consequences, should we fail to meet it. We neglect the proper use
of leisure at our peril.[77]
In other words, the answer to the problem does not lie solely with the
golf course, the yacht club, the theater, or the lengthened vacation.
Much more will be required.
The intellectual stimulus of space exploration and research, which
undoubtedly will divide into numerous branches like capillary streaks
from a bolt of lightning, should be markedly useful in helping to fill
this vacuum. Space research would seem particularly applicable in this
role since it deals with fundamental knowledge and concepts which are
satisfying in terms of psychological needs and sense of purpose.
_Intensified nationalism_
Ever since World War II the era of colonialism has been on the wane.
Many nations have proclaimed, won, or wrested their independence during
that period. Others appear to be on the verge of doing so. At any rate,
it is clear that in the decades ahead the world is going to see the rise
of even more independent nations with strong nationalistic feelings.
History implies that developments of this sort are often accompanied by
international unrest--because of the normal ebullience of national
adolescence and the desire to be accepted by the world community, as
well as a variety of concomitant political and economical upheavals.
For whatever trials may lie ahead on this score, space exploration may
prove to be much needed oil on rough water.
Ambitious, advanced, sophisticated space exploration in the future is
almost certain to require a high degree of international cooperation and
perhaps even a pooling of resources and funds to some degree. Already
America has found it expedient, in some cases mandatory, to depend on
facilities in other countries for her ventures into space. A good
example is the close cooperation between the United States and tracking
bases located in Canada, Australia, South Africa, and elsewhere. An even
better one is the important part played in U.S. efforts by England's
giant radio telescope at Jodrell Bank. Most of our launches are followed
by this equipment and much of the best scientific information gained
from it. In the case of Pioneer V, Jodrell Bank was essential to keep in
touch with the satellite at the longer distances and, moreover, was
actually required to separate the fourth stage of the launch vehicle and
direct the payload toward its Venus orbit.
Mutual need and cooperation thus fostered by space exploration can be
expected to siphon off some of the political tensions of the future,
especially as more and more nations become interested in space and
inaugurate complex programs of their own.