I have not the slightest doubt about the magnitude of the evils which
accrue from the steady increase of European armaments; but I think that
this regrettable fact is merely the superficial expression of social
forces, the operation of which cannot be sensibly affected by agreements
between Governments.
In my opinion it is a delusion to attribute the growth of armaments
to the "exactions of militarism." The "exactions of industrialism,"
generated by international commercial competition, may, I believe, claim
a much larger share in prompting that growth. Add to this the French
thirst for revenge, the most just determination of the German and
Italian peoples to assert their national unity; the Russian Panslavonic
fanaticism and desire for free access to the western seas; the Papacy
steadily fishing in the troubled waters for the means of recovering its
lost (I hope for ever lost) temporal possessions and spiritual
supremacy; the "sick man," kept alive only because each of his doctors
is afraid of the other becoming his heir.
When I think of the intensity of the perturbing agencies which arise out
of these and other conditions of modern European society, I confess
that the attempt to counteract them by asking Governments to agree to a
maximum military expenditure, does not appear to me to be worth making;
indeed I think it might do harm by leading people to suppose that the
desires of Governments are the chief agents in determining whether peace
or war shall obtain in Europe.