Chapter Eleven ~~ The Belief in Luck

The gambling propensity is another subsidiary trait of the barbarian

temperament. It is a concomitant variation of character of almost

universal prevalence among sporting men and among men given to warlike

and emulative activities generally. This trait also has a direct

economic value. It is recognized to be a hindrance to the highest

industrial efficiency of the aggregate in any community where it

prevails in an appreciable degree. The gambling proclivity is doubtfully

to be classed as a feature belonging exclusively to the predatory type

of human nature. The chief factor in the gambling habit is the belief in

luck; and this belief is apparently traceable, at least in its elements,

to a stage in human evolution antedating the predatory culture. It may

well have been under the predatory culture that the belief in luck was

developed into the form in which it is present, as the chief element of

the gambling proclivity, in the sporting temperament. It probably owes

the specific form under which it occurs in the modern culture to the

predatory discipline. But the belief in luck is in substance a habit

of more ancient date than the predatory culture. It is one form of the

artistic apprehension of things. The belief seems to be a trait carried

over in substance from an earlier phase into the barbarian culture,

and transmuted and transmitted through that culture to a later stage

of human development under a specific form imposed by the predatory

discipline. But in any case, it is to be taken as an archaic trait,

inherited from a more or less remote past, more or less incompatible

with the requirements of the modern industrial process, and more or less

of a hindrance to the fullest efficiency of the collective economic life

of the present.

While the belief in luck is the basis of the gambling habit, it is not

the only element that enters into the habit of betting. Betting on the

issue of contests of strength and skill proceeds on a further motive,

without which the belief in luck would scarcely come in as a prominent

feature of sporting life. This further motive is the desire of the

anticipated winner, or the partisan of the anticipated winning side, to

heighten his side's ascendency at the cost of the loser. Not only does

the stronger side score a more signal victory, and the losing side

suffer a more painful and humiliating defeat, in proportion as the

pecuniary gain and loss in the wager is large; although this alone is

a consideration of material weight. But the wager is commonly laid also

with a view, not avowed in words nor even recognized in set terms in

petto, to enhancing the chances of success for the contestant on which

it is laid. It is felt that substance and solicitude expended to

this end can not go for naught in the issue. There is here a special

manifestation of the instinct of workmanship, backed by an even more

manifest sense that the animistic congruity of things must decide for a

victorious outcome for the side in whose behalf the propensity inherent

in events has been propitiated and fortified by so much of conative

and kinetic urging. This incentive to the wager expresses itself freely

under the form of backing one's favorite in any contest, and it is

unmistakably a predatory feature. It is as ancillary to the predaceous

impulse proper that the belief in luck expresses itself in a wager. So

that it may be set down that in so far as the belief in luck comes

to expression in the form of laying a wager, it is to be accounted an

integral element of the predatory type of character. The belief is, in

its elements, an archaic habit which belongs substantially to early,

undifferentiated human nature; but when this belief is helped out by the

predatory emulative impulse, and so is differentiated into the specific

form of the gambling habit, it is, in this higher-developed and specific

form, to be classed as a trait of the barbarian character.

The belief in luck is a sense of fortuitous necessity in the sequence

of phenomena. In its various mutations and expressions, it is of very

serious importance for the economic efficiency of any community in which

it prevails to an appreciable extent. So much so as to warrant a more

detailed discussion of its origin and content and of the bearing of its

various ramifications upon economic structure and function, as well as

a discussion of the relation of the leisure class to its growth,

differentiation, and persistence. In the developed, integrated form

in which it is most readily observed in the barbarian of the predatory

culture or in the sporting man of modern communities, the belief

comprises at least two distinguishable elements--which are to be taken

as two different phases of the same fundamental habit of thought, or as

the same psychological factor in two successive phases of its evolution.

The fact that these two elements are successive phases of the same

general line of growth of belief does not hinder their coexisting in the

habits of thought of any given individual. The more primitive form

(or the more archaic phase) is an incipient animistic belief, or an

animistic sense of relations and things, that imputes a quasi-personal

character to facts. To the archaic man all the obtrusive and obviously

consequential objects and facts in his environment have a quasi-personal

individuality. They are conceived to be possessed of volition, or rather

of propensities, which enter into the complex of causes and affect

events in an inscrutable manner. The sporting man's sense of luck and

chance, or of fortuitous necessity, is an inarticulate or inchoate

animism. It applies to objects and situations, often in a very vague

way; but it is usually so far defined as to imply the possibility of

propitiating, or of deceiving and cajoling, or otherwise disturbing the

holding of propensities resident in the objects which constitute the

apparatus and accessories of any game of skill or chance. There are few

sporting men who are not in the habit of wearing charms or talismans to

which more or less of efficacy is felt to belong. And the proportion is

not much less of those who instinctively dread the "hoodooing" of the

contestants or the apparatus engaged in any contest on which they lay a

wager; or who feel that the fact of their backing a given contestant or

side in the game does and ought to strengthen that side; or to whom the

"mascot" which they cultivate means something more than a jest.

In its simple form the belief in luck is this instinctive sense of an

inscrutable teleological propensity in objects or situations. Objects or

events have a propensity to eventuate in a given end, whether this end

or objective point of the sequence is conceived to be fortuitously given

or deliberately sought. From this simple animism the belief shades off

by insensible gradations into the second, derivative form or phase above

referred to, which is a more or less articulate belief in an inscrutable

preternatural agency. The preternatural agency works through the visible

objects with which it is associated, but is not identified with these

objects in point of individuality. The use of the term "preternatural

agency" here carries no further implication as to the nature of the

agency spoken of as preternatural. This is only a farther development of

animistic belief. The preternatural agency is not necessarily conceived

to be a personal agent in the full sense, but it is an agency which

partakes of the attributes of personality to the extent of somewhat

arbitrarily influencing the outcome of any enterprise, and especially

of any contest. The pervading belief in the hamingia or gipta

(gaefa, authna) which lends so much of color to the Icelandic sagas

specifically, and to early Germanic folk-legends, is an illustration of

this sense of an extra-physical propensity in the course of events.

In this expression or form of the belief the propensity is scarcely

personified although to a varying extent an individuality is imputed to

it; and this individuated propensity is sometimes conceived to yield to

circumstances, commonly to circumstances of a spiritual or preternatural

character. A well-known and striking exemplification of the belief--in

a fairly advanced stage of differentiation and involving an

anthropomorphic personification of the preternatural agent appealed

to--is afforded by the wager of battle. Here the preternatural agent was

conceived to act on request as umpire, and to shape the outcome of the

contest in accordance with some stipulated ground of decision, such as

the equity or legality of the respective contestants' claims. The like

sense of an inscrutable but spiritually necessary tendency in events

is still traceable as an obscure element in current popular belief, as

shown, for instance, by the well-accredited maxim, "Thrice is he

armed who knows his quarrel just,"--a maxim which retains much of its

significance for the average unreflecting person even in the civilized

communities of today. The modern reminiscence of the belief in the

hamingia, or in the guidance of an unseen hand, which is traceable in

the acceptance of this maxim is faint and perhaps uncertain; and it

seems in any case to be blended with other psychological moments that

are not clearly of an animistic character.

For the purpose in hand it is unnecessary to look more closely into the

psychological process or the ethnological line of descent by which the

later of these two animistic apprehensions of propensity is derived

from the earlier. This question may be of the gravest importance to

folk-psychology or to the theory of the evolution of creeds and cults.

The same is true of the more fundamental question whether the two

are related at all as successive phases in a sequence of development.

Reference is here made to the existence of these questions only to

remark that the interest of the present discussion does not lie in that

direction. So far as concerns economic theory, these two elements or

phases of the belief in luck, or in an extra-causal trend or propensity

in things, are of substantially the same character. They have an

economic significance as habits of thought which affect the individual's

habitual view of the facts and sequences with which he comes in contact,

and which thereby affect the individual's serviceability for the

industrial purpose. Therefore, apart from all question of the beauty,

worth, or beneficence of any animistic belief, there is place for

a discussion of their economic bearing on the serviceability of the

individual as an economic factor, and especially as an industrial agent.

It has already been noted in an earlier connection, that in order to

have the highest serviceability in the complex industrial processes of

today, the individual must be endowed with the aptitude and the habit

of readily apprehending and relating facts in terms of causal sequence.

Both as a whole and in its details, the industrial process is a process

of quantitative causation. The "intelligence" demanded of the workman,

as well as of the director of an industrial process, is little else

than a degree of facility in the apprehension of and adaptation to a

quantitatively determined causal sequence. This facility of apprehension

and adaptation is what is lacking in stupid workmen, and the growth

of this facility is the end sought in their education--so far as their

education aims to enhance their industrial efficiency.

In so far as the individual's inherited aptitudes or his training

incline him to account for facts and sequences in other terms than those

of causation or matter-of-fact, they lower his productive efficiency or

industrial usefulness. This lowering of efficiency through a penchant

for animistic methods of apprehending facts is especially apparent when

taken in the mass-when a given population with an animistic turn is

viewed as a whole. The economic drawbacks of animism are more patent and

its consequences are more far-reaching under the modern system of large

industry than under any other. In the modern industrial communities,

industry is, to a constantly increasing extent, being organized in a

comprehensive system of organs and functions mutually conditioning one

another; and therefore freedom from all bias in the causal apprehension

of phenomena grows constantly more requisite to efficiency on the

part of the men concerned in industry. Under a system of handicraft an

advantage in dexterity, diligence, muscular force, or endurance may, in

a very large measure, offset such a bias in the habits of thought of the

workmen.

Similarly in agricultural industry of the traditional kind, which

closely resembles handicraft in the nature of the demands made upon

the workman. In both, the workman is himself the prime mover chiefly

depended upon, and the natural forces engaged are in large part

apprehended as inscrutable and fortuitous agencies, whose working lies

beyond the workman's control or discretion. In popular apprehension

there is in these forms of industry relatively little of the industrial

process left to the fateful swing of a comprehensive mechanical sequence

which must be comprehended in terms of causation and to which the

operations of industry and the movements of the workmen must be adapted.

As industrial methods develop, the virtues of the handicraftsman count

for less and less as an offset to scanty intelligence or a halting

acceptance of the sequence of cause and effect. The industrial

organization assumes more and more of the character of a mechanism, in

which it is man's office to discriminate and select what natural forces

shall work out their effects in his service. The workman's part in

industry changes from that of a prime mover to that of discrimination

and valuation of quantitative sequences and mechanical facts. The

faculty of a ready apprehension and unbiased appreciation of causes in

his environment grows in relative economic importance and any element in

the complex of his habits of thought which intrudes a bias at

variance with this ready appreciation of matter-of-fact sequence gains

proportionately in importance as a disturbing element acting to lower

his industrial usefulness. Through its cumulative effect upon the

habitual attitude of the population, even a slight or inconspicuous bias

towards accounting for everyday facts by recourse to other ground than

that of quantitative causation may work an appreciable lowering of the

collective industrial efficiency of a community.

The animistic habit of mind may occur in the early, undifferentiated

form of an inchoate animistic belief, or in the later and more highly

integrated phase in which there is an anthropomorphic personification of

the propensity imputed to facts. The industrial value of such a lively

animistic sense, or of such recourse to a preternatural agency or the

guidance of an unseen hand, is of course very much the same in either

case. As affects the industrial serviceability of the individual, the

effect is of the same kind in either case; but the extent to which

this habit of thought dominates or shapes the complex of his habits of

thought varies with the degree of immediacy, urgency, or exclusiveness

with which the individual habitually applies the animistic or

anthropomorphic formula in dealing with the facts of his environment.

The animistic habit acts in all cases to blur the appreciation of causal

sequence; but the earlier, less reflected, less defined animistic sense

of propensity may be expected to affect the intellectual processes

of the individual in a more pervasive way than the higher forms of

anthropomorphism. Where the animistic habit is present in the naive

form, its scope and range of application are not defined or limited.

It will therefore palpably affect his thinking at every turn of the

person's life--wherever he has to do with the material means of life.

In the later, maturer development of animism, after it has been defined

through the process of anthropomorphic elaboration, when its application

has been limited in a somewhat consistent fashion to the remote and the

invisible, it comes about that an increasing range of everyday facts are

provisionally accounted for without recourse to the preternatural agency

in which a cultivated animism expresses itself. A highly integrated,

personified preternatural agency is not a convenient means of handling

the trivial occurrences of life, and a habit is therefore easily fallen

into of accounting for many trivial or vulgar phenomena in terms of

sequence. The provisional explanation so arrived at is by neglect

allowed to stand as definitive, for trivial purposes, until special

provocation or perplexity recalls the individual to his allegiance. But

when special exigencies arise, that is to say, when there is peculiar

need of a full and free recourse to the law of cause and effect, then

the individual commonly has recourse to the preternatural agency as a

universal solvent, if he is possessed of an anthropomorphic belief.

The extra-causal propensity or agent has a very high utility as a

recourse in perplexity, but its utility is altogether of a non-economic

kind. It is especially a refuge and a fund of comfort where it has

attained the degree of consistency and specialization that belongs to

an anthropomorphic divinity. It has much to commend it even on other

grounds than that of affording the perplexed individual a means of

escape from the difficulty of accounting for phenomena in terms of

causal sequence. It would scarcely be in place here to dwell on the

obvious and well-accepted merits of an anthropomorphic divinity, as seen

from the point of view of the aesthetic, moral, or spiritual interest,

or even as seen from the less remote standpoint of political, military,

or social policy. The question here concerns the less picturesque and

less urgent economic value of the belief in such a preternatural agency,

taken as a habit of thought which affects the industrial serviceability

of the believer. And even within this narrow, economic range, the

inquiry is perforce confined to the immediate bearing of this habit

of thought upon the believer's workmanlike serviceability, rather than

extended to include its remoter economic effects. These remoter effects

are very difficult to trace. The inquiry into them is so encumbered with

current preconceptions as to the degree in which life is enhanced by

spiritual contact with such a divinity, that any attempt to inquire into

their economic value must for the present be fruitless.

The immediate, direct effect of the animistic habit of thought upon the

general frame of mind of the believer goes in the direction of lowering

his effective intelligence in the respect in which intelligence is of

especial consequence for modern industry. The effect follows, in varying

degree, whether the preternatural agent or propensity believed in is

of a higher or a lower cast. This holds true of the barbarian's and

the sporting man's sense of luck and propensity, and likewise of the

somewhat higher developed belief in an anthropomorphic divinity, such as

is commonly possessed by the same class. It must be taken to hold true

also--though with what relative degree of cogency is not easy to say--of

the more adequately developed anthropomorphic cults, such as appeal

to the devout civilized man. The industrial disability entailed by a

popular adherence to one of the higher anthropomorphic cults may be

relatively slight, but it is not to be overlooked. And even these

high-class cults of the Western culture do not represent the last

dissolving phase of this human sense of extra-causal propensity. Beyond

these the same animistic sense shows itself also in such attenuations of

anthropomorphism as the eighteenth-century appeal to an order of nature

and natural rights, and in their modern representative, the ostensibly

post-Darwinian concept of a meliorative trend in the process of

evolution. This animistic explanation of phenomena is a form of the

fallacy which the logicians knew by the name of ignava ratio. For

the purposes of industry or of science it counts as a blunder in the

apprehension and valuation of facts. Apart from its direct industrial

consequences, the animistic habit has a certain significance for

economic theory on other grounds. (1) It is a fairly reliable indication

of the presence, and to some extent even of the degree of potency,

of certain other archaic traits that accompany it and that are of

substantial economic consequence; and (2) the material consequences of

that code of devout proprieties to which the animistic habit gives rise

in the development of an anthropomorphic cult are of importance both

(a) as affecting the community's consumption of goods and the prevalent

canons of taste, as already suggested in an earlier chapter, and (b) by

inducing and conserving a certain habitual recognition of the relation

to a superior, and so stiffening the current sense of status and

allegiance.

As regards the point last named (b), that body of habits of thought

which makes up the character of any individual is in some sense an

organic whole. A marked variation in a given direction at any one point

carries with it, as its correlative, a concomitant variation in the

habitual expression of life in other directions or other groups of

activities. These various habits of thought, or habitual expressions

of life, are all phases of the single life sequence of the individual;

therefore a habit formed in response to a given stimulus will

necessarily affect the character of the response made to other stimuli.

A modification of human nature at any one point is a modification of

human nature as a whole. On this ground, and perhaps to a still greater

extent on obscurer grounds that can not be discussed here, there are

these concomitant variations as between the different traits of human

nature. So, for instance, barbarian peoples with a well-developed

predatory scheme of life are commonly also possessed of a strong

prevailing animistic habit, a well-formed anthropomorphic cult, and

a lively sense of status. On the other hand, anthropomorphism and

the realizing sense of an animistic propensity in material are less

obtrusively present in the life of the peoples at the cultural stages

which precede and which follow the barbarian culture. The sense of

status is also feebler; on the whole, in peaceable communities. It is to

be remarked that a lively, but slightly specialized, animistic belief

is to be found in most if not all peoples living in the ante-predatory,

savage stage of culture. The primitive savage takes his animism less

seriously than the barbarian or the degenerate savage. With him

it eventuates in fantastic myth-making, rather than in coercive

superstition. The barbarian culture shows sportsmanship, status, and

anthropomorphism. There is commonly observable a like concomitance of

variations in the same respects in the individual temperament of men in

the civilized communities of today. Those modern representatives of

the predaceous barbarian temper that make up the sporting element are

commonly believers in luck; at least they have a strong sense of an

animistic propensity in things, by force of which they are given to

gambling. So also as regards anthropomorphism in this class. Such of

them as give in their adhesion to some creed commonly attach themselves

to one of the naively and consistently anthropomorphic creeds; there

are relatively few sporting men who seek spiritual comfort in the less

anthropomorphic cults, such as the Unitarian or the Universalist.

Closely bound up with this correlation of anthropomorphism and prowess

is the fact that anthropomorphic cults act to conserve, if not to

initiate, habits of mind favorable to a regime of status. As regards

this point, it is quite impossible to say where the disciplinary effect

of the cult ends and where the evidence of a concomitance of variations

in inherited traits begins. In their finest development, the predatory

temperament, the sense of status, and the anthropomorphic cult all

together belong to the barbarian culture; and something of a mutual

causal relation subsists between the three phenomena as they come into

sight in communities on that cultural level. The way in which they recur

in correlation in the habits and attitudes of individuals and classes

today goes far to imply a like causal or organic relation between the

same psychological phenomena considered as traits or habits of the

individual. It has appeared at an earlier point in the discussion

that the relation of status, as a feature of social structure, is a

consequence of the predatory habit of life. As regards its line

of derivation, it is substantially an elaborated expression of the

predatory attitude. On the other hand, an anthropomorphic cult is a

code of detailed relations of status superimposed upon the concept of

a preternatural, inscrutable propensity in material things. So that, as

regards the external facts of its derivation, the cult may be taken as

an outgrowth of archaic man's pervading animistic sense, defined and in

some degree transformed by the predatory habit of life, the result being

a personified preternatural agency, which is by imputation endowed with

a full complement of the habits of thought that characterize the man of

the predatory culture.

The grosser psychological features in the case, which have an immediate

bearing on economic theory and are consequently to be taken account

of here, are therefore: (a) as has appeared in an earlier chapter,

the predatory, emulative habit of mind here called prowess is but the

barbarian variant of the generically human instinct of workmanship,

which has fallen into this specific form under the guidance of a habit

of invidious comparison of persons; (b) the relation of status is a

formal expression of such an invidious comparison duly gauged and graded

according to a sanctioned schedule; (c) an anthropomorphic cult, in the

days of its early vigor at least, is an institution the characteristic

element of which is a relation of status between the human subject as

inferior and the personified preternatural agency as superior. With

this in mind, there should be no difficulty in recognizing the intimate

relation which subsists between these three phenomena of human nature

and of human life; the relation amounts to an identity in some of their

substantial elements. On the one hand, the system of status and the

predatory habit of life are an expression of the instinct of workmanship

as it takes form under a custom of invidious comparison; on the other

hand, the anthropomorphic cult and the habit of devout observances

are an expression of men's animistic sense of a propensity in material

things, elaborated under the guidance of substantially the same general

habit of invidious comparison. The two categories--the emulative habit

of life and the habit of devout observances--are therefore to be taken

as complementary elements of the barbarian type of human nature and of

its modern barbarian variants. They are expressions of much the same

range of aptitudes, made in response to different sets of stimuli.

The Theory of the Leisure Class · 第 13 / 15 题