I was one of the few who had some inkling of the change of view in
France and foretold the peril of Poincaré. In conversation with French
people, and especially the ordinary working folk, I gathered that
Poincaré no longer held their confidence. They had backed him when he
ordered the occupation of the Ruhr, but only because they believed
that he would “deliver the goods.” Now they saw that the “goods” were
not forthcoming, and that, instead of receiving large reparations from
Germany, the franc was dropping, abruptly and perilously. They believed
that M. Poincaré was a little too “rigid,” too much of a lawyer, and
too little of a business man. They were aware of all the hate that was
being built up against them in Germany. They said—many of them—“We are
afraid of the future.”
It was above all that fear of the future, the terrifying spectre of
a new war, when not the great Black Army of Africa, nor all their
submarines, nor all their aeroplanes, would save France from another
struggle in which the last of her youth would perish, which overthrew
Poincaré and his “rigid” methods. France, by a majority, desired peace,
if that could be gained by some new policy, not surrendering security,
not weak, but more in accord with the spirit of Liberalism.
There is no doubt in my mind that the result of the elections in Great
Britain and the rise of Labour in that country had a powerful influence
on the French election. It was a call back to democratic ideals in
Europe, against the militarists and Imperialists.
Anyhow it gave Ramsay MacDonald a wonderful, an amazing chance. With
Herriot, ex-Mayor of Lyons, advanced Liberal, leader of Labour in
France, he could speak on equal terms. They understood each other’s
ideas. They knew each other’s difficulties. Herriot, who speaks German
well and has studied their system of civic organisation, had an honest
desire to be fair and just to Germany while not betraying French
interests. He did not call the German people “_Sales Boches_.” He did
not want to kill their babies or starve them to death. He acknowledged
that they had a right to live. He wanted to deal with them on business
terms and, if possible—if possible!—get their good will and free
consent to a plan by which French and Germans may live in the same
world without periodical spasms of slaughter. With Herriot and Ramsay
MacDonald in cordial agreement on the ideals of peace in the London
Conference in August, ten years after the beginning of war, the peace
of Europe had a greater chance than any other statesmen of England and
France would have made conceivable. Luck, or Fate, was on the side of
success.