It is now some time since this theory--which was first propounded in the
oldest religion of the world, Vedaism--has been gradually coming into
prominence again. It was taught by various Greek philosophers, and
afterwards defended by the Theosophists of the Middle Ages, but came to
be flatly denied by the wise men of the West, the world of negations.
Contrary to the rule, it is the men of science themselves who have
revived this theory. Statistics of events of the most varied nature are
fast being collected and collated with the seriousness demanded by
important scientific questions. Statistics of wars and of the periods
(or cycles) of the appearance of great men--at least those who have been
recognized as such by their contemporaries; statistics of the periods
of development and progress of large commercial centres; of the rise
and fall of arts and sciences; of cataclysms, such as earthquakes,
epidemics; periods of extraordinary cold and heat; cycles of
revolutions, and of the rise and fall of empires, &c.: all these are
subjected in turn to the analysis of the minutest mathematical
calculations. Finally, even the occult significance of numbers in names
of persons and cities, in events, and like matters, receives unwonted
attention. If, on the one hand, a great portion of the educated public
is running into atheism and scepticism, on the other hand, we find an
evident current of mysticism forcing its way into science. It is the
sign of an irrepressible need in humanity to assure itself that there is
a power paramount over matter; an occult and mysterious law which
governs the world, and which we should rather study and closely watch,
trying to adapt ourselves to it, than blindly deny, and dash ourselves
vainly against the rock of destiny. More than one thoughtful mind,
while studying the fortunes and reverses of nations and great empires,
has been struck by one identical feature in their history--namely, the
inevitable recurrence of similar events, and after equal periods of
time. This relation between events is found to be substantially
constant, though differences in the outward form of details no doubt
occur. Thus the belief of the ancients in their astrologers,
soothsayers and prophets might have been warranted by the verification
of many of their most important predictions, without these
prognostications of future events implying of necessity anything very
miraculous. The soothsayers and augurs having occupied in days of the
old civilizations the very same position now occupied by our historians,
astronomers and meteorologists, there was nothing more wonderful in the
fact of the former predicting the downfall of an empire or the loss of a
battle, than in the latter predicting the return of a comet, a change of
temperature, or perhaps the final conquest of Afghanistan. Both studied
exact sciences; for, if the astronomer of today draws his observations
from mathematical calculations, the astrologer of old also based his
prognostication upon no less acute and mathematically correct
observations of the ever-recurring cycles. And, because the secret of
this ancient science is now being lost, does that give any warrant for
saying that it never existed, or that to believe in it, one must be
ready to swallow "magic," "miracles" and the like? "If, in view of the
eminence to which modern science has reached, the claim to prophesy
future events must be regarded as either child's play or a deliberate
deception," says a writer in the Novoye Vremja, "then we can point at
science which, in its turn, has now taken up and placed on record the
question, whether there is or is not in the constant repetition of
events a certain periodicity; in other words, whether these events
recur after a fixed and determined period of years with every nation;
and if a periodicity there be, whether this periodicity is due to blind
chance, or depends on the same natural laws which govern the phenomena
of human life." Undoubtedly the latter. And the writer has the best
mathematical proof of it in the timely appearance of such works as that
of Dr. E. Zasse, and others. Several learned works treating upon this
mystical subject have appeared of late, and to some of these works and
calculations we shall presently refer. A very suggestive work by a
well-known German scientist, E. Zasse, appears in the Prussian Journal
of Statistics, powerfully corroborating the ancient theory of cycles.
These periods which bring around ever-recurring events, begin from the
infinitesimally small--say of ten years--rotation, and reach to cycles
which require 250, 500, 700, and 1000 years to effect their revolutions
around themselves, and within one another. All are contained within the
Maha-Yug, the "Great Age" or Cycle of Manu's calculation, which itself
revolves between two eternities--the "Pralayas" or Nights of Brahma.
As, in the objective world of matter, or the system of effects, the
minor constellations and planets gravitate each and all around the sun,
so in the world of the subjective, or the system of causes, these
innumerable cycles all gravitate between that which the finite intellect
of the ordinary mortal regards as eternity, and the still finite, but
more profound, intuition of the sage and philosopher views as but an
eternity within THE ETERNITY. "As above, so it is below," runs the old
Hermetic maxim. As an experiment in this direction, Dr. Zasse selected
the statistical investigations of all the wars recorded in history, as a
subject which lends itself more easily to scientific verification than
any other. To illustrate his subject in the simplest and most easily
comprehensible manner, Dr. Zasse represents the periods of war and the
periods of peace in the shape of small and large wave-lines running over
the area of the Old World. The idea is not a new one, for the image was
used for similar illustrations by more than one ancient and medieval
mystic, whether in words or pictures--by Henry Kunrath, for example.
But it serves well its purpose, and gives us the facts we now want.
Before he treats, however, of the cycles of wars, the author brings in
the record of the rise and fall of the world's great empires, and shows
the degree of activity they have played in the Universal History. He
points out the fact that if we divide the map of the Old World into six
parts--into Eastern, Central, and Western Asia, Eastern and Western
Europe, and Egypt--then we shall easily perceive that every 250 years an
enormous wave passes over these areas, bringing to each in its turn the
events it has brought to the one next preceding. This wave we may call
"the historical wave" of the 250 years' cycle.
The first of these waves began in China 2000 years B.C., in the "golden
age" of this empire, the age of philosophy, of discoveries, of reforms.
"In 1750 B.C. the Mongolians of Central Asia establish a powerful
empire. In 1500, Egypt rises from its temporary degradation and extends
its sway over many parts of Europe and Asia; and about 1250, the
historical wave reaches and crosses over to Eastern Europe, filling it
with the spirit of the Argonautic Expedition, and dies out in 1000 B.C.
at the Siege of Troy."
The second historical wave appears about that time in Central Asia.
"The Scythians leave her steppes, and inundate towards the year 750 B.C.
the adjoining countries, directing themselves towards the south and
west; about the year 500, in Western Asia begins an epoch of splendour
for ancient Persia; and the wave moves on to the east of Europe, where,
about 250 B.C., Greece reaches her highest state of culture and
civilization--and further on to the west, where, at the birth of Christ,
the Roman Empire finds itself at its apogee of power and greatness."
Again, at this period we find the rising of a third historical wave at
the far East. After prolonged revolutions, about this time, China forms
once more a powerful empire, and its arts, sciences and commerce
flourish again. Then 250 years later, we find the Huns appearing from
the depths of Central Asia; in the year 500 A.D., a new and powerful
Persian kingdom is formed; in 750--in Eastern Europe--the Byzantine
empire; and in the year 1000--on its western side--springs up the
second Roman Power, the Empire of the Papacy, which soon reaches an
extraordinary development of wealth and brilliancy.
At the same time the fourth wave approaches from the Orient. China is
again flourishing; in 1250, the Mongolian wave from Central Asia has
overflowed and covered an enormous area of land, including Russia.
About 1500, in Western Asia the Ottoman Empire rises in all its might,
and conquers the Balkan peninsula; but at the same time, in Eastern
Europe, Russia throws off the Tartar yoke; and about 1750, during the
reign of Empress Catherine, rises to an unexpected grandeur, and covers
itself with glory. The wave ceaselessly moves further on to the West;
and beginning with the middle of the past century, Europe is living over
an epoch of revolutions and reforms, and, according to the author, "if
it is permissible to prophesy, then about the year 2000, Western Europe
will have lived through one of those periods of culture and progress so
rare in history." The Russian press taking the cue believes, that
"towards those days the Eastern Question will be finally settled, the
national dissensions of the European peoples will come to an end, and
the dawn of the new millennium will witness the abolition of armies and
an alliance between all the European empires." The signs of regeneration
are also fast multiplying in Japan and China, as if pointing to the rise
of a new historical wave in the extreme East.
If from the cycle of two-and-a-half centuries we descend to that which
leaves its impress every century, and, grouping together the events of
ancient history, mark the development and rise of empires, then we shall
find that, beginning from the year 700 B.C., the centennial wave pushes
forward, bringing into prominence the following nations, each in its
turn--the Assyrians, the Medes, the Babylonians, the Persians, the
Greeks, the Macedonians, the Carthagenians, the Romans, and the Teutons.
The striking periodicity of the wars in Europe is also noticed by Dr. E.
Zasse. Beginning with 1700 A.D., every ten years have been signalized
by either a war or a revolution. The periods of the strengthening and
weakening of the warlike excitement of the European nations represent a
wave strikingly regular in its periodicity, flowing incessantly, as if
propelled onward by some fixed inscrutable law. This same mysterious
law seems also to connect these events with the astronomical wave or
cycle, which governs the periodicity of solar spots. The periods when
the European powers have shown the most destructive energy are marked by
a cycle of fifty years' duration. It would be too long and tedious to
enumerate them from the beginning of history. We may, therefore, limit
our study to the cycle beginning with the year 1712, when all the
European nations were fighting each other in the Northern, and the
Turkish wars, and the war for the throne of Spain. About 1761, the
"Seven Years' War"; in 1810, the wars of Napoleon I. Towards 1861, the
wave has been a little deflected from its regular course; but, as if to
compensate for it, or propelled, perhaps, with unusual force, the years
directly preceding, as well as those which followed it, left in history
the records of the most fierce and bloody wars--the Crimean War in the
former, and the American Civil War in the latter period. The periodicity
in the wars between Russia and Turkey appears peculiarly striking, and
represents a very characteristic wave. At first the intervals between
the cycles of thirty years' duration--1710, 1740, 1770 then these
intervals diminish, and we have a cycle of twenty years--1790, 1810,
1829-30; then the intervals widen again--1853 and 1878. But if we take
note of the whole duration of the in-flowing tide of the war-like cycle,
then we shall have at the centre of it--from 1768 to 1812--three wars of
seven years' duration each, and at both ends, wars of two years.
Finally, the author comes to the conclusion that, in view of facts, it
becomes thoroughly impossible to deny the presence of a regular
periodicity in the excitement of both mental and physical forces in the
nations of the world. He proves that in the history of all the peoples
and empires of the Old World, the cycles marking the millenniums, the
centennials as well as the minor ones of fifty and ten years' duration,
are the most important, inasmuch as neither of them has ever yet failed
to bring in its train some more or less marked event in the history of
the nation swept over by these historical waves.
The history of India is one which, of all histories, is the most vague
and least satisfactory. Yet were its consecutive great events noted
down, and its annals well searched, the law of cycles would be found to
have asserted itself here as plainly as in every other country in
respect of its wars, famines, political exigencies, and other matters.
In France, a meteorologist of Paris went to the trouble of compiling the
statistics of the coldest seasons, and discovered that those years which
had the figure 9 in them had been marked by the severest winters. His
figures run thus:--in 859 A.D., the northern part of the Adriatic Sea
was frozen, and was covered for three months with ice. In 1179, In the
most moderate zones, the earth was covered with several feet of snow.
In 1209, in France the depth of snow and the bitter cold caused such a
scarcity of fodder that most of the cattle perished in that country. In
1249, the Baltic Sea between Russia, Norway and Sweden remained frozen
for many months, and communication was kept up by sleighs. In 1339,
there was such a terrific winter in England, that vast numbers of people
died of starvation and exposure. In 1409, the river Danube was frozen
from its sources to its mouth in the Black Sea.
In 1469, all the vineyards and orchards perished in consequence of the
frost. In 1609, in France, Switzerland and Upper Italy, people had to
thaw their bread and provisions before they could use them. In 1639,
the Harbour of Marseilles was covered with ice to a great distance. In
1659, all the rivers in Italy were frozen. In 1699, the winter in
France and Italy proved the severest and longest of all. The prices for
articles of food were so much raised that half of the population died of
starvation. In 1709, the winter was no less terrible. The ground was
frozen in France, Italy and Switzerland to the depth of several feet;
and the sea, south as well as north, was covered with one compact and
thick crust of ice, many feet deep, and for a considerable distance in
the usually open sea. Numbers of wild beasts, driven out by the cold
from their dens in the forests, sought refuge in villages and even
cities; and the birds fell dead to the ground by hundreds. In 1729,
1749 and 1769 (cycles of twenty years' duration), all the rivers and
streams were ice-bound all over France for many weeks, and all the fruit
trees perished. In 1789, France was again visited by a very severe
winter. In Paris, the thermometer stood at nineteen degrees of frost.
But the severest of all winters proved that of 1829. For fifty-four
consecutive days all the roads in France were covered, with snow several
feet deep, and all the rivers were frozen. Famine and misery reached
their climax in the country in that year. In 1839, there was again in
France a most terrific and trying cold season. And the winter of 1879
has asserted its statistical rights, and proved true to the fatal
influence of the figure 9. The meteorologists of other countries are
invited to follow suit, and make their investigations likewise, for the
subject is certainly most fascinating as well as most instructive.
Enough has been shown, however, to prove that neither the ideas of
Pythagoras on the mysterious influence of numbers, nor the theories of
the ancient world-religions and philosophies are as shallow and
meaningless as some too forward thinkers would have had the world to
believe.
--H.P.B.