the rookeries such as have been made in recent years, the
best approximate measure of decline available is found in
these facts:
_a._ About 100,000 male seals of recognized killable age
were obtained from the hauling grounds each year from 1871
to 1889. The table of statistics given in Appendix I[39]
shows, on the whole, a progressive increase in the number of
hauling grounds driven and in the number of drives made, as
well as a retardation of the date at which the quota was
attained during a number of years prior to 1889.
_b._ In the year 1896, 28,964 killable seals were taken
after continuing the driving till July 27th, and in 1897
19,189 after continuing the driving till August 11th. We
have no reason to believe that during the period 1896 and
1897 a very much larger number of males of recognized
killable age could have been taken on the hauling grounds.
The reduction between the years 1896 and 1897 in the number
of killable seals taken, while an indication of decrease in
the breeding herd, can not be taken as an actual measure of
such decrease. A number of other factors must be taken into
consideration, and the real measure of decrease must be
sought in more pertinent statistics, drawn from the breeding
rookeries themselves.
We have already noted that in that portion of the period, 1871 to
1889, which falls prior to 1884, thirteen years in all, no difficulty
was experienced in securing the full quota, and it may be added that
this was completed not later than July 20th. A retardation of the date
at which the quota can be filled is a direct indication of the degree
of exhaustion of the hauling grounds. In marked contrast with these
earlier years stand the conditions of 1896 and 1897, when greatly
reduced quotas only were obtained, notwithstanding the unusual
prolongation of the driving period.
The statement here made that the difference between the quotas of 1896
and 1897 is not an actual measure of decline in the breeding herd
requires explanation. The quota of any year is dependent upon the
birth rate of three years previous, killable seals being males of
approximately three years of age. The difference noted, therefore,
while not indicative of the actual decrease for the seasons 1896 and
1897, is a direct measure of such decrease for the seasons of 1893 and
1894, when the seals in question were born.
That the rate of decline as thus shown was greater in 1893-'94 than in
1896-'97 is explained by the fact that, whereas only 30,000 seals were
taken at sea in 1893, 60,000 were taken in 1894; while in 1896 43,000
were taken as against only 25,000 in 1897. In other words, the pelagic
catch of 1894 exceeded that of 1893 by one hundred per cent, while
that of 1897 fell seventy-two per cent below that of 1896. It is not,
therefore, strange that the quota of 1897 should show a reduction of
thirty per cent as against one of twelve per cent in the breeding herd
for the same year.
3. From these data it is plain that the former yield of the
hauling grounds of the Pribilof Islands was from three to
five times as great as in the years 1896 and 1897, and the
same diminution to one third or one fifth of the former
product may be assumed when we include also the results of
the hunting at sea.
This proposition needs little comment. It is a simple deduction from
the conditions of the preceding paragraph. The minimum estimate of
former conditions is the lowest possible figure that could be in any
way defended. The larger figure is apparently more nearly correct. The
quota of 1898, of which we now have the record also, was about 18,000.
It is not so stated in this paragraph, but the inference is inevitable
that what is thus given as the decline of the "yield of the hauling
grounds" is equally the decline of the breeding herd. A breeding herd
which yielded without difficulty annually 100,000 killable animals
(superfluous males of three years of age) must be reduced to something
like one fifth its former size when it is able only with extreme
difficulty to yield a quota of 20,000 such animals.
4. The death rate among young fur seals, especially among
the pups, is very great. While the loss among the pups prior
to their departure from the islands has been found in the
past two years to approach twenty per cent of the whole
number born, and though the rate of subsequent mortality is
unknown, we may gather from the number which return each
year that from one half to two thirds have perished before
the age of three years--that is to say, the killable age for
the males and the breeding age for the females.
The maximum and minimum figures here represent a division of opinion.
The larger figure of two thirds would even seem to be a conservative
estimate. The birth rate of 1897, as we know from close estimate, was
approximately 130,000; it must have been greater in 1894, approaching
200,000. From this larger birth rate only about 20,000 males survived
(the quota of 1897). There was doubtless a like number of females, the
sexes being equal at birth and subject to like causes of natural loss.
This gives a total of 40,000 in all, out of a birth rate of 200,000,
which survived to the age of three years. This is one fifth, and it is
evident that the mortality exceeds rather than falls below the maximum
of two thirds.
5. The chief natural causes of death among pups, so far as
known at present, are as follows, the importance of each
being variable and more or less uncertain:
_a._ Ravages of the parasitic worm _Uncinaria_; most
destructive on sandy breeding areas and during the period
from July 15th to August 20th.
_b._ Trampling by fighting bulls or by moving bulls and
cows, a source of loss greatest among young pups.
_c._ Starvation of pups strayed or separated from their
mothers when very young, or whose mothers have died from
natural causes.
_d._ Ravages of the great killer (_Orca_), known to be fatal
to many of the young, and perhaps also to older seals.
At a later period drowning in the storms of winter is
believed, but not certainly known, to be a cause of death
among the older pups.
The causes of death here enumerated are natural and inherent in the
conditions under which the herd exists. That some of them were not
known or fully understood until the investigations of 1896 and 1897
does not make them new or recent in their action. They have been
constant factors, acting with greater intensity in the past when the
herd was larger and more crowded upon its breeding grounds.
Photographs taken in 1891 and 1892 show that the parasitic worm was
then doing its deadly work, and more extensively in proportion as the
herd was larger. For 1,495 pups dead from this cause counted by us on
Tolstoi sand flat in 1896, 4,000 were counted on the same ground by
the British commissioner of 1892. Moreover, the bones of innumerable
pups on ground already abandoned in that year by the declining herd
attest the existence of this cause of death prior to that time. We
have no reason to suppose that it has not always preyed upon the herd.
Death by trampling must at present be at a minimum on account of the
scattered condition of the rookeries. The storms of winter and pelagic
enemies must, of course, take toll in proportion to the number of
animals.
But the significant fact shown by this proposition is that the gain of
the herd must be small at best under such a natural death rate. We may
suppose these natural losses to have been the checks which in a state
of nature prevented the indefinite increase of the herd. When,
therefore, to this total loss of from two thirds to four fifths of the
entire birth rate before breeding age is attained, we add the
tremendous artificial loss through the destruction of gravid and
nursing females resulting from pelagic sealing, it is not to be
wondered at that the equilibrium was broken and the herd sent on a
rapid decline.
6. Counts of certain rookeries, with partial counts and
estimates of others, show that the number of breeding
females bearing pups on St. Paul and St. George Island was,
in 1896 and 1897, between 160,000 and 130,000, more nearly
approaching the higher figure in 1896 and the lower in 1897.
These figures are based upon counts of all the breeding families on
both islands for each season. On certain rookeries the live and dead
pups were counted. In this way an average size of family was obtained
which was used to complete the census where pups could not be counted.
7. On certain rookeries where pups were counted in both
seasons, 16,241 being found in 1896 and 14,318 in 1897, or,
applying a count adopted by Professor Thompson, 14,743 in
the latter year, there is evident a decrease of nine to
twelve per cent within the twelvemonth in question. The
count of pups is the most trustworthy measure of numerical
variation in the herd. The counts of harems, and especially
of cows present, are much inferior in value. The latter
counts, however, point in the same direction. The harems on
all the rookeries were counted in both seasons. In 1896
there were 4,932; in 1897 there were 4,418, a decrease of
10.41 per cent. The cows actually present on certain
rookeries at the height of the season were counted in both
seasons. Where 10,198 were found in 1896, 7,307 were found
in 1897, a decrease of 28.34 per cent.
The important element in these special counts, undertaken with a view
to determining the relative condition of the breeding herd for the two
seasons, is the count of pups. All other classes of rookery population
fluctuate from day to day, but the pups remain constantly on shore and
near to the place of birth for the first six weeks of their lives, and
it is merely a matter of patience and skill in counting them. Such a
count on any rookery is an absolute record of the number of breeding
females which has visited it for the season in question.
The minimum figure of nine per cent adopted by Professor Thompson is
based upon a recount of a single rookery made by himself under
conditions less favorable for accuracy than in the case of the
official counts, which give the larger figure of twelve per cent, and
which were made jointly by representatives of both commissions.
8. It is not easy to apply the various counts in the form of
a general average to all the rookeries of the islands. We
recognize that a notable decrease has been suffered by the
herd during the twelvemonth 1896 to 1897, without
attempting, save by setting the above numbers on record, to
ascribe to the decrease more precise figures.
This is a rather extreme statement of the uncertainty which may be
assumed to attach to these figures. The problem is not an easy one at
best and its factors are complex. This should always be borne in mind,
but not to the extent of doubting the value of the figures. The areas
counted were large enough to be fairly typical. The counts were
carefully done, and are accurate enough for all practical purposes.
The probable error for the 15,000 more or less pups counted would not
exceed 500. But as the counting was done in exactly the same manner
and by the same persons for the two seasons, such errors as may exist
are common to both counts and the relative conditions are unaltered.
The figure of twelve per cent, moreover, must be taken as in itself a
minimum, since it is the result of a number of individual counts
varying in accuracy; and all in a sense underestimates, inasmuch as
more animals are always overlooked among the rocks than are counted
twice.
But the exact percentage of decrease is immaterial. That it has been a
"notable" decrease is sufficient, and this is unquestioned. It may be
noted in passing that this unequivocal decrease occurs in two seasons
during which there was perfect enforcement of the regulations of the
Paris award.
9. The methods of driving and killing practiced on the
islands, as they have come under our observation during the
past two seasons, call for no criticism or objection. An
adequate supply of bulls is present on the rookeries; the
number of older bachelors rejected in the drives during the
period in question is such as to safeguard in the immediate
future a similarly adequate supply; the breeding bulls,
females, and pups on the breeding grounds are not disturbed;
there is no evidence or sign of impairment of virility of
males; the operations of driving and killing are conducted
skillfully and without inhumanity.
It was agreed by the commission of 1892 that "excessive killing by
man" was the cause of the decline of the herd. As to the "man" in
question the two sets of commissioners differed diametrically. The
Americans placed the responsibility with the pelagic sealer; the
British, with the lessees through their methods of sealing on land.
To any one who is at all familiar with the conspicuous part which the
theories of close killing, and especially overdriving, played in the
British contention before the Paris Tribunal of Arbitration, this full
and frank vindication comes as a refreshing surprise. That it should
be agreed to by British scientific experts ought to revive even Dr.
Mendenhall's faith. It is true that the statement is carefully limited
to the seasons under observation, but neither the principle nor the
methods of land killing have been altered within the past half century
except in so far as they have been improved. It was an absurd and
foolish theory which ascribed to the treatment of the non-breeding and
superfluous male life of a herd of polygamous animals responsibility
for the decline of its breeding stock, but it served a purpose useful
to Canadian interests before the Paris tribunal. It is now forever
eliminated from the fur-seal question.
10. The pelagic industry is conducted in an orderly manner,
and in a spirit of acquiescence in the limitations imposed
by law.
This statement is true, though wholly irrelevant to the question of
the efficiency of the regulations themselves. Moreover, it stands as
an implied impeachment of the active and efficient patrol fleet
constantly maintained by the United States and Great Britain for the
enforcement of the regulations governing the pelagic industry. For
example, there were in 1896 five American and three British vessels
engaged in active patrol of the waters of Bering Sea. One would think
it a foregone conclusion that the pelagic industry should be
law-abiding, whether of its own volition or not. In addition to all
this, however, the regulations are as admirably suited to the needs of
the pelagic sealer as if he had himself prepared them. There is,
therefore, no reasonable incentive to violate them. Viewed in this
light, this statement seems ludicrous, but it has a justification not
evident at first sight.
The British experts demanded this statement as a balm for the wounded
feelings of the pelagic sealer, and, such being the fact, the American
commissioners assumed that it could do no harm to place it on record
that he has conformed to the requirements of the law. But from the
American point of view this paragraph has a wider and deeper meaning.
We have seen in the opening paragraph that the decline in the herd has
been continuous and uninterrupted during the period of the Paris
regulations. It is admitted in paragraph 8 that the decrease for this
same period has been a "notable" one. The rate is specified in
paragraph 7 as from "nine to twelve per cent" during two years when
the regulations were rigidly enforced. It only requires the climax of
paragraph 10, asserting the perfect observance of the regulations, to
complete their condemnation.
11. Pelagic sealing involves the killing of males and
females alike, without discrimination and in proportion as
the two sexes coexist in the sea. The reduction of the males
effected on the islands causes an enhanced proportion of
females to be found in the pelagic catch; hence this
proportion, if it vary from no other cause, varies at least
with the catch on the islands. In 1895 Mr. A. B. Alexander,
on behalf of the Government of the United States, found 62.3
per cent of females in the catch of the Dora Sieward in
Bering Sea; and in 1896 Mr. Andrew Halkett, on behalf of the
Canadian Government, found 84.2 per cent in the catch of the
same schooner in the same sea. There are no doubt instances,
especially in the season of migration and in the course of
the migrating herds, of catches containing a different
proportion of the two sexes.
There are two ways and two alone whereby killing by man affects the
fur-seal herd--namely, killing on land and killing at sea. Land
killing has been vindicated in paragraph 9. We have here the necessary
condemnation of pelagic killing expressed in equally full and frank
terms. Land killing takes only males and leaves an adequate supply of
bulls for breeding purposes; pelagic killing takes males and females
alike, the latter sex constituting 62 to 84 out of every 100 killed.
It is not a vital matter that the female sex should be found to
predominate in the pelagic catch, except in so far as it proves the
falsity of the returns made so persistently by the Canadian sealing
captain that the sexes are taken in virtually equal proportion at sea.
The essential thing is that females are killed at all. That three
fourths of all the animals taken at sea (during one season 140,000
animals were so taken) are of this sex only emphasizes the destructive
nature of this industry.
12. The large proportion of females in the pelagic catch
includes not only adult females that are both nursing and
pregnant, but also young seals that are not pregnant and
others that have not yet brought forth young, with such
also as have recently lost their young through the various
causes of natural mortality.
This statement is put in the mildest possible form out of
consideration for the old-time British contentions that the breeding
females did not leave the islands while their young were dependent
upon them, and that those taken at sea were "barren." The
investigations of 1896 and 1897 proved conclusively that every female
of two years old and over taken at sea was pregnant, and that those
over two years of age when taken in Bering Sea were in addition
nursing, having dependent pups on the islands. The manner of statement
seems to imply an equality in importance between "young" seals and
"adults." As females are never killed on land, they are naturally of
all ages when found at sea, and the young animals (yearlings and
two-year-olds) are necessarily vastly in the minority.
13. The polygamous habit of the animal, coupled with an
equal birth rate of the two sexes, permits a large number of
males to be removed with impunity from the herd, while, as
with other animals, any similar abstraction of females
checks or lessens the herd's increase, or, when carried
further, brings about an actual diminution of the herd. It
is equally plain that a certain number of females may be
killed without involving the actual diminution of the herd,
if the number killed does not exceed the annual increment of
the breeding herd, taking into consideration the annual
losses by death through old age and through incidents of the
sea.
This paragraph is really supplementary to 9 and 11. Neither the
methods nor yet the principle of land killing are at fault. The animal
being polygamous, a part of its male life can be removed with
impunity. On the other hand, the killing of females leads to
disastrous results.
The concluding sentence is a concession to diplomacy. It is true that
a certain number of females may be killed without producing actual
diminution. If pelagic sealing were stopped to-day the herd would
naturally begin to increase. The measure of its increase would be the
difference between the natural loss of adult breeders through old age
and incidents of the sea, on the one hand, and the yearly accession of
young breeders to bear their first pups, on the other. We can closely
estimate the latter factor. It was equal, for example, to the quota of
20,000 in 1897, or sixteen and two thirds per cent of the birth rate.
The quota was composed of males of approximately three years, and we
may assume that a like number of three-year-old females entered the
rookeries for the first time in the same season. We have then a gross
gain to the breeding herd of sixteen and two thirds per cent.
We have no means of exact estimate for the loss of adult females
because we do not know the period of life in the female. If, however,
we estimate it at thirteen years, which seems to be a conservative
figure, the animal would have ten years of breeding life. Then, from
old age alone, ten per cent of the adult breeding females must die
annually. This leaves a net gain of six and two thirds per cent with
accidental factors unaccounted for. The killing of females which does
not produce actual diminution must come well within this margin of six
and two thirds per cent. It only remains to be stated that the pelagic
catch of 1897, which was the smallest on record since 1884, exceeded
fourteen per cent.
14. While, whether from a consideration of the birth rate or
from an inspection of the visible effects, it is manifest
that the take of females in recent years has been so far in
excess of the natural increment as to lead to the reduction
of the herd in the degree related above, yet the ratio of
the pelagic catch of one year to that of the following has
fallen off more rapidly than the ratio of the breeding herd
of one year to the breeding herd of the next.
This paragraph corrects possible erroneous implications which might be
drawn from the truism in the preceding paragraph. A certain number of
females may be taken, etc., but so many in excess of the safety limit
have been taken that the herd has been reduced "in the degree related
above"--that is, for 1896-'97, nine to twelve per cent, and for
1884-'97, fifty to eighty per cent.
Dr. Mendenhall said: "It will be impossible to know absolutely which
group of scientific experts was right (in 1892) in regard to pelagic
sealing." The admission made in this paragraph, taken together with
other admissions made in paragraphs 11 and 12, effectually disproves
this prediction. It ought to be a source of gratification to Dr.
Mendenhall and to his colleague, Dr. Merriam, to find it thus clearly
proved that they were right and their British associates wrong.
The final clause is here again a diplomatic concession to take the
sting out of the real admission. The rapid fall in the pelagic catch
as compared with the more even decline of the breeding herd is a
natural phenomenon. Pelagic sealing not only destroys the herd, but it
is necessarily self-destructive because it preys upon its own capital.
The more successful it is the sooner it must cease. With the decline
of the herd it is itself declining, and the rapidity of its fall
proves the nearness of the end. For the years since 1894 the pelagic
catch has been 61,000, 56,000, 43,000, and 25,000 respectively. It is
a significant fact that in four years, under regulations which permit
the pelagic sealer to take all he can get, the product of his industry
has fallen to less than one half.
15. In this greater reduction of the pelagic catch, compared
with the gradual decrease of the herd, there is a tendency
toward equilibrium, or a stage at which the numbers of the
breeding herd would neither increase nor decrease. In
considering the probable size of the herd in the immediate
future, there remains to be estimated the additional factor
of decline resulting from reductions in the number of
surviving pups, caused by the larger pelagic catch of 1894
and 1895.