FOOTNOTE:

[1] At Monte Carlo the roulette wheels have only one cipher, but at the

end of each turn of the wheel the person (or persons) playing on the

winning number usually contributes a disk (or one thirty-fifth of the

amount won) to the croupier’s “box,” which amounts to about the same

thing as having two ciphers, without this customary gratuity. It is

said that one-half of the amount of these voluntary contributions goes

to the corporation, and the other half pays for the entire upkeep of

the establishment, including the salaries of the croupiers and other

attaches. The same disks are used by all players, and a winner who

persistently ignores the “box” is not apt to be favored by the croupier

when another player claims his winning bet, as often happens.

FRENZIED SPECULATION IS THE RANKEST FORM OF GAMBLING; IT IS A PERILOUS

INDULGENCE

An enormous percentage of stock market speculators become victims of

over-confidence after a series of successful trades. Their buoyant

spirits increase with every new success, until at length they throw

discretion to the winds, extend their risks far beyond the margin of

safety, and at the infallible turn of the market they find themselves

in difficulty, like foolish fishes that get stranded on the beach at

high tide. It is a fact, as inexplicable as it is true, that men with

a fair amount of gray matter in their heads, who would flout the idea

of paying $50 a share for a particular stock, will later borrow money

from a broker at from six to eight per cent. to buy the same stock all

the way up from $100 to $150 a share on the slenderest permissible

margin; and, instead of proportioning the margin of safety to the

increased carrying risk they narrow it by continuing to buy as the

prices advance. Also there are many who after selling their stocks

at a handsome profit will buy them back at twenty, fifty, eighty, or

a hundred points higher, and with much less timidity than they felt

when they first bought them at low figures. Prosperity in the stock

market seems to encourage optimism, rashness and impatience in about

the same degree that adversity discourages enterprise and aspiration.

But there is far greater danger in excessive optimism than in excessive

pessimism, for the reason that optimists are inclined to back their

hopeful views by indiscriminate purchases of stocks at high prices,

while pessimists are seldom disposed to back their views at all. The

risks incurred in buying stocks on a “thin” margin are so manifest that

it seems almost as platitudinous to mention them as it would be to

remark that children endanger their lives when they congregate on thin

ice.

The psychology of speculation · 第 15 / 27 题