No. 4.
WINDSOR, (Vt.,) _Feb._ 19, 1809.
SIR: My last (No. 3) was written at Burlington, the principal
town in the northern part of the State of Vermont. I am now at
the principal town in the eastern section.
The fallacy of men's opinions, when they act under the
influence of sensibility, and are strongly excited by those
hopes which always animate a rising party, led me to doubt the
correctness of the opinions which I received in the northern
section of this State; which from its contiguity to Canada and
necessary intercourse with Montreal, has a stronger interest in
promoting a good understanding with His Majesty's Government.
Therefore, since my departure from Burlington, I have sought
every favorable occasion of conversing with the Democrats
on the probable result of the policy adopted by the General
Government. The difference of opinion is thus expressed.
The Federal party declare that, in the event of a war, the
State of Vermont will treat separately for itself with Great
Britain; and support to the utmost the stipulations into which
it may enter, without any regard to the policy of the General
Government. The Democrats, on the other hand, assert, that in
such a case as that contemplated, the people would be nearly
divided into equal numbers; one of which would support the
Government, if it could be done without involving the people
in a civil war, but, at all events, would risk every thing in
preference to a coalition with Great Britain. This difference
of opinion is not to be wholly ascribed to the prejudices
of party. The people in the eastern section of Vermont are
not operated upon by the same hopes and fears as those on
the borders of the British colony. They are not dependent
on Montreal for the sale of their produce nor the supply of
foreign commodities. They are not apprehensive of any serious
dangers or inconvenience from a state of war; and although they
admit that the Governor, Council, and three-fourths of the
representation in Congress are of the Federal party, yet they
do not believe that the State would stand alone and resist the
National Government. They do not, however, deny that, should
the State of Vermont continue to be represented as it is at
present, it would in all probability unite with the neighboring
States in any serious plan of resistance to a war which it
might seem expedient to adopt. This, I think, is the safer
opinion for you to rely on; if, indeed, reliance ought to be
placed on any measure depending upon the will of the rabble,
which is ever changing, and must ever be marked with ignorance,
caprice, and inconsistency. As the crisis approaches, the
difficulty of deciding upon a hazardous alternative will
increase; and, unfortunately, there is not in Vermont any man
of commanding talents capable of attracting general confidence,
of infusing into the people his own spirit; and, amidst the
confusion of conflicting opinions, dangers, and commotion,
competent to lead in the path of duty or safety. The Governor
is an industrious, prudent man, and has more personal influence
than any other; but his abilities are not suited to the
situation in which a civil war would place him. I am, &c.