[21] The statistics in this Essay are chiefly taken from _Thom's Almanac
and Official Directory for 1878_. The tables given in that Almanac are
for the most part brought down no later than 1876. It so happens,
however, that 1876 is a very convenient date for the purpose of this
paper. It marks the conclusion of a period of just thirty years from the
worst crisis of the Potato Famine; and it marks also the conclusion of a
cycle of commercial inflation, some of whose results were strongly felt
in Ireland.
I have, of course, consulted other authorities besides _Thom's
Directory_, but I shall specify these as occasion arises. When no
special reference is given, my authority is Thom.
[22] While I write _Eason's Almanac for 1879_ has been published. This
authority gives the total average of paupers daily in receipt of relief
through 1877 as 78,223, or 146.5 in 10,000 of the population. An
increase of less than six in ten thousand is not very alarming, and the
fact seems in some measure to justify the opinion I have ventured to
express in the text, that Ireland will be found to suffer less from the
present crisis than other parts of the United Kingdom. It must, however,
be taken into consideration that the present year (1879) threatens a
very poor harvest: and this circumstance is absolutely certain to
enhance whatever distress already exists.
[23] See note on previous page.
[24] The 24-1/4 millions in England and Wales are kept in order by a
police force of 29,689. In Scotland 3-1/2 millions of population have
only 3356 policemen. In Ireland, with a population well under 5-1/2
millions, there are 12,081 policemen. And yet, as will appear presently,
there is far less crime in Ireland relatively than in either of the
other kingdoms.
[25] It is only just to admit that the death sentences are not a fair
test. Too many murders remain undetected, owing to the existence of
agrarian conspiracy. The number of murders known to have been committed
is unluckily not to be found in the returns to which I have access. But
the very fact of their remaining undetected is a proof that they are not
directly connected with intoxication, for it shows that they are for the
most part agrarian.
[26] It has been calculated, apparently on trustworthy data, that an
acre of land planted with larch or fir, at an expense of about £20,
would be worth £2000 at the end of forty years, besides the intermediate
yield from clearings of young timber, game cover, and so forth. This is
a very high return for a small outlay; but it is completely beyond the
means of any peasant proprietor.
[27] _Eason's Almanac_, 1879. The actual number is 285,464. The total of
agricultural holdings is 581,963.
[28] I have unfortunately been unable to obtain any statistics of the
cross-channel trade. I find it stated in _Thom's Directory_ that the
trade of Belfast alone was valued in the year 1866 at £24,332,000--viz.,
£12,417,000 imports and £11,915,000 exports. The year 1866 was a bad
year: so it may be assumed that these figures represent a low average. I
find no means of estimating the import and export trade of Cork and
Dublin.
I may mention here that one cause of interruption in the composition of
this paper was an unsuccessful search for complete trade statistics.
[29] A few of the Home Rule M.P.'s who are now stumping the country on
the Land grievance are themselves landlords. It has been suggested that
they should introduce fixity of tenure on their estates, in one or other
of its various forms. Mr. Errington (who is _not_ one of the stump
orators of the party) has, I am told, notified his intention to give
long leases to his tenantry. In a case like this the _argumentum ad
hominem_, though a perfectly fair one, is a perfectly useless one.
[30] I have referred above (note, p. 463) to my failure to obtain trade
statistics. This circumstance has caused me to fail also in fully
carrying out the original plan of this paper. I had intended not only to
give a general view of the recent condition of the Irish people, but to
enter somewhat fully into its causes, and discuss the probabilities of
the future. The great revival in prosperity, which I have imperfectly
sketched, was closely connected with the cross-channel trade. At
present, affairs look sufficiently gloomy both here and in England; and
the forecast of the future depends mainly upon the prospect of revival
in English trade.