P--FORECAST OF CITY DEVELOPMENT. SPECIAL AND GENERAL

The dual and four-fold development of the city, as above sketched, is by

no means far advanced in most of our present towns or cities, which have

obviously but scanty expression of the ideas shadowed forth for the

modern equivalents of cloister and cathedral, of academe and acropolis.

But this is to say that such towns, however large, populous and rich

according to conventional economic standards, are to that extent small

and poor, indeed too often little better than cities by courtesy. Yet

their further development, upon this [Page: 102] four-fold view of civic

evolution, though in principle the same for each and all, has always

been, and let us hope may always be, in large measure an individual

(because regional) one. For if each human individuality be unique, how

much more must that of every city?

In one concrete case, that of Dunfermline, I have already submitted

definite suggestions towards the realisation of the civic Utopia, and

even architectural designs towards its execution,[13] so that these may

at any rate suffice to show how local study and adaptive design are

needed for each individual city, indeed for every point of it. It is

thus, and thus only, that we can hope to have a city development truly

evolutionary, that is, one utilising the local features, advantages, and

possibilities of place, occupation, and people. Of course, it is needful

to supplement these by the example of other cities; but it is no less

needful to avoid weighting down the local life with replicas of

institutions, however excellent elsewhere, if really irregional here.

With the re-awakening of regional life in our various centres, and of

some comprehension of its conditions among our rulers, they will cease

to establish, say, a school of mines in Piccadilly, or again one of

engineering and the like in South Kensington. The magistrates of

Edinburgh have long abandoned their old attempt to plant mulberries and

naturalise silk culture upon their wind-swept Calton Hill; albeit this

was a comparatively rational endeavour, since a population of Huguenot

refugee silk weavers had actually come upon their hands.

[13] Cf. the writer's "City Development," Edinburgh and Westminster,

1904.

Similarly, it is plain that we must develop Oxford as Oxford, Edinburgh

as Edinburgh, and so on with all other cities, great or small--York or

Winchester, Westminster or London. And so with Chelsea or Hampstead,

with Woolwich or Battersea. Has not the last of these grown from a mere

outlying vestry, like so many others, into a centre of genuine vitality

and interior progress, indeed of ever-widening interest and example; and

all this in half a generation, apparently through the sagacious

leadership--say, rather the devoted, the [Page: 103] impassioned

citizenship--of a single man? And does not his popular park at times

come near giving us a vital indication of the needed modern analogue of

cathedral and forum? Civic development is thus no mere external matter,

either of "Haussmannising" its streets, or of machine-educating its

people; the true progress of the city and its citizenship must alike

grow and flower from within albeit alive and open to every truly

fertilising impulse from without.

Yet since national interests, international industry, commerce,

science, and therefore progress are nowadays and increasingly so

largely one, may we not in conclusion foresee something at least of the

great lines of development which are common to cities, and generalise

these as we are accustomed to do in history? Witness the Classical,

Mediaeval, and Renaissance types to which historic cities

preponderatingly belong, and within which we group their varied

individualities, as after all of comparative detail.

Here then it is time to recall the presentment of ancient, recent and

contemporary evolution already outlined in the part of this paper

previously read (Vol. I, p. 109), dealing with the historic survey of

cities. We have now to face the question, then postponed, indeed left in

interrogation-marks--that of seeking not indeed sharply to define the

future order of things, yet in some measure to discern such elements of

progress as may be already incipient in the existing order, if not yet

largely manifest there. Such elements may be reasonably expected to grow

in the near future, perhaps increasingly, and whatever be their rate of

growth are surely worthy of our attention.

Contemporary science, with its retrospective inquiries into origins in

the past, its everyday observation of the present, is apt practically to

overlook that the highest criterion and achievement of science is not to

decipher the past, nor record the present, not even to interpret both.

It is to foresee: only thus can it subserve action, of which the present

task ever lies towards the future, since it is for this that we have to

provide. Why then should not Comte's famous aphorism--"_Voir pour

prévoir, prévoir pour pourvoir_," become applicable in our civic studies

no less than in the general social and political fields to [Page: 104]

which he applied it? In navigation or engineering, in agriculture or

hygiene, prevision and provision alike are ever increasing; yet these

are no mere combinations of the preliminary sciences and the fundamental

occupations, but obviously contain very large social elements.

It is proverbially safe to prophesy when one knows; and it is but this

safe prediction which we make every day of child or bud, where we can

hardly fail to see the growing man, the coming flower. Yet do not most

people practically forget that even now, in mid-winter, next summer's

leaves are already waiting, nay, that they were conceived nine months

ago? That they thus grow in small, commonly unnoticed beginnings, and

lie in bud for a period twice as long as the summer of their adult and

manifest life, is yet a fact, and one to which the social analogies are

many and worth considering.

While recognising, then, the immense importance of the historic element

of our heritage, renaissance and mediaeval, classic and earlier;

recognising also the predominance of contemporary forces and ideas,

industrial and liberal, imperial and bureaucratic, financial and

journalistic, can we not seek also, hidden under all these leaves, for

those of the still-but-developing bud, which next season must be so much

more important than they are to day? It is a commonplace, yet mainly of

educational meetings, to note that the next generation is now at school;

but how seldom do we recognise its pioneers, albeit already among our

own contemporaries? At any rate we may see here and there that their

leaven is already at work.

In this respect, cities greatly differ--one is far more initiative than

another. In the previous paper (vol. I, p. 109), we saw how individuals,

edifices, institutions, might represent all past phases; these,

therefore, often predominate in different cities sufficiently to give

its essential stamp. Why then should we not make a further survey and

seek to see something of the cities of the future; though we may have to

look for these in quarters where at first sight there may seem as yet

scanty promise of flower?

[Page: 105] To recall an instance employed above, probably every member

of this Society is old enough to remember incredulous questionings of

whether any good thing could come out of Battersea. Again, how few, even

in America, much less than in Europe, a few years ago, forsaw the rapid

growth of those culture-elements in St. Louis, of which the recent

World-Exposition will not have been the only outcome?

Only a few years earlier, it was Chicago which, for New England no less

than for the Old World, seemed but the byword of a hopelessly

materialised community. So Birmingham or Glasgow has won its present

high position among cities in comparatively recent times; so it may now

be the turn of older cities, once far more eminent, like Newcastle or

Dundee, to overtake and in turn, perhaps, outstrip them. But all this is

still too general and needs further definition; let us attempt this,

therefore, somewhat more fully, in the concrete case of Glasgow.

Q--GLASGOW AS TYPICAL OF CIVIC TRANSITION--FROM "PALEOTECHNIC" TO

"NEOTECHNIC"

My own appreciation of the significance of Glasgow was first really

awakened over twenty years ago by William Morris, who in his vivid way

pointed out to me how, despite the traditional culture--superiority of

Edinburgh, Glasgow was not only the Scottish capital, but, in his view,

in real progressiveness the leading and initiative city of the whole

United Kingdom. And this for him was not merely or mainly in its

municipal enterprise, then merely in its infancy--although he expressed

this development in the phrase "In London, people talked socialism

without living it; but in Glasgow, they were socialists without knowing

it!" Despite all the ugliness which had so repelled Ruskin, the squalor

which moved Matthew Arnold to the fiercest scorn in all his writings,

Morris's appreciation arose from his craftsman's knowledge and respect

for supreme craftsmanship. The great ships building upon the Clyde were

for him "the greatest achievement of [Page: 106] humanity since the days

of the cathedral-builders," nay, for him actually surpassing these,

since calling forth an even more complex combination and "co-operation

of all the material arts and sciences" into a mighty and organic whole;

and correspondingly of all their respective workers also, this being for

him of the very essence of his social ideal.

For these reasons he insisted, to my then surprise that the social

reorganisation he then so ardently hoped for "was coming faster upon the

Clyde than upon the Thames": he explained as for him the one main reason

for his then discouragement as to the progress of London that there East

and West, North and South, are not only too remote each from the other,

but in their occupations all much too specialised--there to finance,

there to manufactures, or here to leisure, and so on; while on the Clyde

industrial organisation and social progress could not but develop

together, through the very nature of the essential and working unity of

the ship.

Since Morris's day, a local art movement, of which he knew little, has

risen to eminence, a foreign critic would say to pre-eminence, in this

country at least. Since Ruskin's savage response to a Glasgow invitation

to lecture--"first burn your city, and cleanse your river,"--a new

generation of architects and hygienists have not a little transformed

the one, and vigorous measures have been taken towards the purification

of the other. That the city and university pre-eminently associated

with the invention of the steam-engine, and consequently with the advent

of the industrial revolution throughout the world, should, a century

later, have produced a scarcely less pre-eminent leader of applied

science towards the command of electricity is thus no isolated

coincidence. And as political economy, which is ever the theory

corresponding to our phase of industrial practice, and there some of

its foremost pioneers, and later its classical exponent, Adam Smith

himself, so once more there are signs at least of a corresponding wave

of theoretic progress. Students of primitive civilisation and industry

have now long familiarised us with their reinterpretation of what was

long known as the stone age, into two very distinct [Page: 107] periods,

the earlier characterised by few and rough implements, roughly used by a

rude people, the second by more varied tools, of better shape, and finer

edge, often of exquisite material and polish. We know that these were

wielded more skilfully, by a people of higher type, better bred and

better nourished; and that these, albeit of less hunting and militant

life, but of pacific agricultural skill, prevailed in every way in the

struggle for existence; thanks thus not only to more advanced arts, but

probably above all to the higher status of woman. This distinction of

Paleolithic and Neolithic ages and men, has long passed into the

terminology of sociological science, and even into current speech: is it

too much then, similarly, to focus the largely analogous progress which

is so observable in what we have been wont to generalise too crudely as

the modern Industrial Age? All are agreed that the discoveries and

inventions of this extraordinary period of history constitute an epoch

of material advance only paralleled, if at all, in magnitude and

significance by those of prehistory with its shadowy Promethean figures.

Our own advance from a lower industrial civilisation towards a higher

thus no less demands definite characterisation, and this may be broadly

expressed as from an earlier or _Paleotechnic_ phase, towards a later or

more advanced _Neotechnic_ one. If definition be needed, this may be

broadly given as from a comparatively crude and wasteful technic age,

characterised by coal, steam, and cheap machine products, and a

corresponding _quantitative_ ideal of "progress of wealth and

population"--towards a finer civilisation, characterised by the wider

command, yet greater economy of natural energies, by the predominance of

electricity, and by the increasing victory of an ideal of qualitative

progress, expressed in terms of skill and art, of hygiene and education,

of social polity, etc.

The Neotechnic phase, though itself as yet far from completely replacing

the paleotechnic order which is still quantitatively predominant in most

of our cities, begins itself to show signs of a higher stage of

progress, as in the co-ordination of the many industries required for

the building of a ship, or in the yet more recent developments which

begin to renew for us the conception of the worthy construction of a

city. As [Page: 108] the former period may be characterised by the

predominance of the relatively unskilled workman and of the skilled, so

this next incipient age by the development of the chief workman proper,

the literal _architectos_ or architect; and by his companion the rustic

improver, gardener and forester, farmer, irrigator, and their

correspondingly evolving types of civil engineer.

To this phase then the term _Geotechnic_ may fairly be applied. Into its

corresponding theoretic and ideal developments we need not here enter,

beyond noting that these are similarly of synthetic character; on the

concrete side the sciences unifying as geography, and on their more

abstract side as the classification and philosophy of the

sciences,--while both abstract and concrete movements of thought are

becoming more and more thoroughly evolutionary in character.

But evolutionary theories, especially as they rise towards

comprehensiveness, cannot permanently content themselves with origins,

or with classifications merely, nor with concentrating on nature rather

than on man. Nature furnishes after all but the stage for evolution in

its highest terms; of this man himself is the hero; so that thus our

Geotechnic phase, Synthetic age (call it what we will) in its turn gives

birth to a further advance--that concerned with human evolution, above

all subordinating all things to him; whereas in all these preceding

industrial phases, even if decreasingly, "things are in the saddle and

ride mankind." This age, now definitely evolutionist in policy, as the

geotechnic was in theory and in environment we may term the _Eugenic_.

For its theory, still less advanced, the term _Eupsychic_ may complete

our proposed nomenclature.

Thus then our conception of the opening future may be increasingly

defined, since all these apparently predicted phases are already

incipient among us, and are thus really matters of observed fact, of

social embryology let us say; in short, of city development.

In summary, then, the diagram of the former instalment of this paper

(vol. 1, p. 109)

ANCIENT ||

Primitive | Matriarchal | Patriarchal ||

RECENT ||

Greek and Roman | Mediaeval | Renaissance ||

CONTEMPORARY ||

Revolution | Empire | Finance ||

INCIPIENT

? ? ?

[Page: 109] has thus its interrogations filled up. Omitting the

left-hand half, that generalised as Ancient and Recent in the above

diagram, so as to give more space to the Contemporary and Incipient

phases, these now stand as follows:--

CONTEMPORARY || INCIPIENT

Revolution | Revolution | Empire ||Neotechnic | Geotechnic | Eugenic

To elaborate this farther would, of course, exceed my present limits;

but I may be permitted to say that long use of this schematic outline,

especially of course in more developed forms, has satisfied me of its

usefulness alike in the study of current events and in the practical

work of education and city betterment. I venture then to recommend it to

others as worth trial.

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