We see that the ratio of the weight of water to the

[1] Russell, _River Development_ (John Murray, 1888).

10

weight of transported sediment in six out of the nine rivers does

not vary widely. The mean is 2,730 to 1. But this is not the

required average. The water-discharge of each river has to be

taken into account. If we ascribe to the ratio given for each

river the weight proper to the amount of water it discharges, the

proportion of weight of water to weight of sediment, for the

whole quantity of water involved, comes out as 2,520 to 1.

Now if this proportion holds for all the rivers of the

world--which collectively discharge about 27 x 1012 tonnes of

water per annum--the river-born detritus is 1.07 x 1010 tonnes. To

this an addition of 11 per cent. has to be made for silt pushed

along the river-bed.[1] On these figures the minor limit to the

age comes out as 47 millions of years, and the major limit as 188

millions. We are here going on rather deficient estimates, the

rivers involved representing only some 6 per cent. of the total

river supply of water to the ocean. But the result is probably

not very far out.

We may arrive at a probable age lying between the major and minor

limits. If, first, we take the arithmetic mean of these limits,

we get 117 millions of years. Now this is almost certainly

excessive, for we here assume that the rate of covering of the

primary rocks by sediments was uniform. It would not be so,

however, for the rate of supply of original sediment must have

been continually diminishing

[1] According to observations made on the Mississippi (Russell,

_loc. cit._).

11

during geological time, and hence we may assume that the rate of

advance of the sediments on the primary rocks has also been

diminishing. Now we may probably take, as a fair assumption, that

the sediment-covered area was at any instant increasing at a rate

proportionate to the rate of supply of sediment; that is, to the

area of primary rocks then exposed. On this assumption the age is

found to be 87 millions of years.

The Birth-Time of the World and Other Scientific Essays · 第 28 / 93 题