Speculation as to the political future is not a very fruitful occupation.
In looking back to the prognostications of the wisest statesmen, it will
be observed that they were as little able to foresee what was to come a
generation or two after their death, as the merest dolt amongst their
contemporaries. The Whigs at the beginning of the last century thought
that the liberties of Europe would disappear if a prince of the House of
Bourbon were securely fixed on the throne of Spain. The Tories in the last
quarter of that century considered that if England lost her American
provinces she would sink into the impotence of the Dutch Republic. The
statesmen who assembled at the Congress of Vienna would have laughed any
dreamer to scorn who should have suggested that in the lifetime of many of
them Germany would become an empire in the hands of Prussia, France a
well-organized and orderly republic, and the "geographical expression" of
Italy vitalised into one of the great powers of Europe. Nevertheless, if
politics is ever to approach the dignity of a science, it must justify a
scientific character by its ability to predict events. The facts are too
complicated, probably, ever to admit the application of exact deductive
reasoning; and in the growth of civilised society new and unexpected forms
are continually springing up. But though practical statesmen will not aim
at results beyond the immediate future, it is impossible for men who pass
their lives in the study of the difficult task of government to avoid
speculations as to the future form of society to which national efforts
should be directed. Some theory or other, therefore, is always present,
consciously or unconsciously, to the mind of politicians.
With respect to British India it may be observed that very different views
of policy prevail. Native writers in the Indian press view their exclusion
from all the higher offices of Government, and the efforts of Manchester
to transfer 800,000_l._ per annum raised on cotton goods to increased
taxation in India, as a policy based on mere selfishness; and a Russian
journal, apparently in good faith, assured its readers the other day,
that India pays into the British treasury an annual tribute of twenty to
twenty-five millions sterling. On the other hand, some advanced thinkers
amongst ourselves hold that India is a burden on our resources, and the
cry of "Perish India!" so far as relates to its dependence on England, is
considered to be not unsupported by sound reasoning. One of the ablest
publicists of India, in a published letter to Sir George Campbell, has
declared his conviction, after twenty years' experience in that country,
that good government by the British in India is impossible.
It may be admitted that exaggerated notions as to the pecuniary value of
India to England prevail, and it must also be confessed that, with all our
self-complacency as to the benefits of British rule, we have to accuse
ourselves of several shortcomings. Nevertheless, it may be affirmed with
confidence that the national instinct as to the value of our possessions
in the East coincides with the views of our most enlightened statesmen. My
colleague, Colonel Yule, has pointed out, I think with entire justice,
that the task which we have proposed to ourselves in India, unlike that of
the Dutch in Java, is to improve and elevate the two hundred millions
under our charge to the utmost extent of our powers. The national
conscience is not altogether satisfied with the mode in which some of our
possessions have been acquired, but impartial inquiry demonstrates that
unless a higher morality had prevailed than has ever yet been witnessed
amongst the sons of men, the occasions for conquest and acquisition of
territory that have presented themselves to the British during the last
hundred years would not have been foregone by any nation in the world. But
the feeling I allude to quickens the sense of our obligations to the
inhabitants of India. Having undertaken the heavy task of their
government, it is our duty to demonstrate to posterity that under British
rule we have enabled them to advance in the route of civilization and
progress. We recognise that in all probability so distant and extensive an
empire cannot permanently remain in subjection to a small island in the
West, and therefore our constant task is to render the population of India
at some day or other capable of self-government. Is such a problem
susceptible of a favourable solution? I propose to discuss this question
in the following pages.