unjustifiable use which has been made of it. For the very fact of its
difficulty, and the patience required in reading up and verifying the
statistical figures which may be referred to by an author in support of
his theories and opinions, protect him, to a certain extent, from
scrutiny, and tempt him to draw largely upon so convenient and available
a capital. The public generally, therefore, connect in their minds
statistics, if not with unwelcome taxation (for which they naturally
form an important basis), certainly with political controversies, in
which they are in the habit of seeing public men making use of the most
opposite statistical results with equal assurance in support of the most
opposite arguments. A great and distinguished French Minister and
statesman is even quoted as having boasted of the invention of what he
is said to have called “l’Art de grouper les Chiffres.” But if the same
ingenuity and enthusiasm which may have suggested to him this art should
have tempted him or others, as historians, to group facts also, it would
be no more reasonable to make the historical facts answerable for the
use made of them than it would be to make statistical science
responsible for many an ingenious financial statement.
Yet this science has suffered materially in public estimation by such
use, although the very fact that statesmen, financiers, physicians, and
naturalists should seek to support their statements and doctrines by
statistics shows conclusively that they all acknowledge them as the
foundation of truth; and this ought, therefore, to raise, instead of
depressing, the science in the general esteem of the public.
Statistical Science is, as I have said, comparatively new in its
position amongst the sciences in general; and we must look for the cause
of this tardy recognition to the fact that it has the appearance of an
incomplete science, and of being rather a helpmate to other sciences
than having a right to claim that title for itself. But this is an
appearance only. For if pure statistics abstain from participating in
the last and highest aim of all science (viz. the discovering and
expounding the laws which govern the universe), and leave this duty to
their more favoured sisters the natural and the political sciences, this
is done with conscious self-abnegation, for the purpose of protecting
the purity and simplicity of their sacred task—the accumulation and
verification of facts, unbiassed by any consideration of the ulterior
use which may, or can, be made of them.
Those general laws, therefore, in the knowledge of which we recognize
one of the highest treasures of man on earth, are left unexpressed,
though rendered self-apparent, as they may be read in the
uncompromising, rigid figures placed before him.
It is difficult to see how, under such circumstances, and
notwithstanding this self-imposed abnegation, Statistical Science, as
such, should be subject to prejudice, reproach, and attack; and yet the
fact cannot be denied.
We hear it said that its prosecution leads necessarily to Pantheism, and
the destruction of true religion, as depriving, in man’s estimation, the
Almighty of His power of free self-determination, making His world a
mere machine working according to a general prearranged scheme, the
parts of which are capable of mathematical measurement, and the scheme
itself of numerical expression!—that it leads to fatalism, and therefore
deprives man of his dignity, of his virtue and morality, as it would
prove him to be a mere wheel in this machine, incapable of exercising a
free choice of action, but predestined to fulfil a given task and to run
a prescribed course, whether for good or for evil.
These are grave accusations, and would be terrible indeed if they were
true. But are they true? Is the power of God destroyed or diminished by
the discovery of the fact that the earth requires three hundred and
sixty-five revolutions upon its own axis to every revolution round the
sun, giving us so many days to our year, and that the moon changes
thirteen times during that period; that the tide changes every six
hours; that water boils at a temperature of 212° according to
Fahrenheit; that the nightingale sings only in April and May; that all
birds lay eggs; that a hundred and six boys are born to every hundred
girls? Or is man a less free agent because it has been ascertained that
a generation lasts about thirty years; that there are annually posted at
the Post-offices the same number of letters on which the writer had
forgotten to place any address; that the number of crimes committed
under the same local, national, and social conditions is constant; that
the full-grown man ceases to find amusement in the sports of the child?
But our Statistical Science does not even say that this must be so; it
only states that it has been so, and leaves it to the naturalist or
political economist to argue that it is probable, from the number of
times in which it has been found to be so, that it will be so again, as
long as the same causes are operating. It thus gave birth to that part
of Mathematical Science called the calculation of probabilities, and
even established the theory that in the natural world there exist no
certainties at all, but only probabilities. Although this doctrine,
destroying man’s feeling of security to a certain extent, has startled
and troubled some, it is no less true that, whilst we may reckon with a
thoughtless security on the sun rising to-morrow, this is only a
probable event, the probability of which is capable of being expressed
by a determined mathematical fraction. Our insurance offices have, from
their vast collection of statistical facts, established, to such a
precision, the probable duration of man’s life, that they are able to
enter with each individual into a precise bargain on the value of this
life; and yet this does not imply an impious pretension to determine
when the individual is really to die.
But we are met also by the most opposite objection; and statistics are
declared _useless_, because they cannot be relied on for the
determination of any given cause, and do only establish probabilities
where man requires and asks for certainty. This objection is well
founded; but it does not affect the science itself, but solely the use
which man has in vain tried to make of it, and for which it is not
intended. It is the essence of the Statistical Science, that it only
makes apparent general laws, but that these laws are inapplicable to any
special case; that therefore what is proved to be law in general is
uncertain in particular. Herein lies the real refutation also of the
first objection; and thus is the power, wisdom, and goodness of the
Creator manifested, showing how the Almighty has established the
physical and moral world on unchangeable laws, conformable to His
eternal nature, while He has allowed to the individual the freest and
fullest use of his faculties, vindicating at the same time the majesty
of His laws by their remaining unaffected by individual
self-determination.
Gentlemen, I am almost ashamed to speak such homely truths (of which I
feel myself at best to be a very inadequate exponent) to a meeting like
this, including men of such eminence in the science, and particularly in
the presence of one who was your first President, M. Quetelet, and from
whom I had the privilege, now twenty-four years ago, to receive my first
instruction in the higher branches of mathematics—one who has so
successfully directed his great abilities to the application of the
science to those social phenomena, the discovery of the governing laws
of which can only be approached by the accumulation and reduction of
statistical facts.
It is the social condition of mankind, as exhibited by those facts,
which forms the chief object of the study and investigation undertaken
by this Congress; and it hopes that the results of its labours will
afford to the statesman and legislator a sure guide in his endeavours to
promote social development and happiness. The importance of these
international Congresses in this respect cannot be overrated. They not
only awaken public attention to the value of these pursuits, bring
together men of all countries who devote their lives to them, and who
are thus enabled to exchange their thoughts and varied experiences; but
they pave the way to an agreement amongst different governments and
nations to follow up these common inquiries, in a common spirit, by a
common method, and for a common end.
It is only in the largest number of observations that the law becomes
apparent; and the truth becomes more and more to be relied upon, the
larger the amount of facts accurately observed which form the basis of
its elucidation. It is consequently of the highest importance that
observations identical in character should embrace the largest field of
observation attainable. It is not sufficient, however, to collect the
statistical facts of one class, over the greatest area, and to the
fullest amount, but we require, in order to arrive at sound conclusions
as to the influences operating in producing these facts, the
simultaneous collection of the greatest variety of facts,—the statistics
of the increase of population, of marriages, births and deaths, of
emigration, disease, crime, education and occupation, of the products of
agriculture, mining, and manufacture, of the results of trade, commerce,
and finance. Nor, while their comparison becomes an essential element in
the investigation of our social condition, does it suffice to obtain
these observations as a whole, but we require also, and particularly,
the comparison of these same classes of facts in different countries,
under the varying influences of political and religious conditions, of
occupation, races, and climates. And even this comparison of the same
facts in different localities does not give us all the necessary
material from which to draw our conclusions; for we require, as much as
anything else, the collection of observations of the same classes of
facts, in the same localities, and under the same conditions, but at
different times. It is only the element of time, in the last instance,
which enables us to test progress or regress—that is to say, life.
Thus the physician, by feeling the pulse of the greatest number of
individuals coming under his observation, old and young, male and
female, and at all seasons, arrives at the average number of the
pulsations of the heart in man’s normal condition: by feeling the pulse
of the same individual under the most varied circumstances and
conditions, he arrives at a conclusion on this individual’s pulse;
again, by feeling the pulse of the greatest variety of persons suffering
from the same disease, he ascertains the general condition of the pulse
under the influence of that disease. It is only then that, feeling a
particular patient’s pulse, he will be able to judge whether this
individual is affected by this peculiar disease, as far as that can be
ascertained by its influence on the pulse.
But all these comparisons of the different classes of facts under
different local conditions and at different times, of which I have been
speaking, depend, not only as to their usefulness and as to the ease
with which they can be undertaken, but even as to the possibility of
undertaking them at all, on the similarity—nay, congruity—of the method
employed, and the expressions, figures, and conditions selected, under
which the observations have been taken. Does, then, the world at large
not owe the deepest obligations to a Congress such as the one I am
addressing, which has made it its special task to produce this
assimilation and to place at the command of man the accumulated
experience upon his own condition, scientifically elaborated and reduced
in a manner to enable the meanest intellect to draw safe conclusions?
Gentlemen, the Congress has at its various meetings succeeded in doing a
great deal in this direction: the official statistics of all countries
have been improved; and in regard to the Census, the recommendations of
the Brussels meeting have been generally carried out in a majority of
States. I am sorry to have to admit the existence of some striking
exceptions in England in this respect; for instance, the Census of Great
Britain and Ireland was not taken on precisely the same plan in
essential particulars, thereby diminishing its value for general
purposes. The judicial statistics of England and Wales do not show a
complete comparative view of the operation of our judicial
establishments; nor, while we are in all the departments of the State
most actively engaged in the preparation of valuable statistics, can we
deny certain defects in our returns, which must be traced to the want of
such a central authority or Commission as was recommended by the
Congress at Brussels and Paris, to direct, on a general plan, all the
great statistical operations to be prepared by the various departments.
Such a Commission would be most useful in preparing an annual digest of
the Statistics of the United Kingdom, of our widely scattered Colonies,
and of our vast Indian empire. From such a digest the most important
results could not fail to be elicited.
One of the most useful results of the labours of the Congress has been
the common agreement of all States to inquire into the causes of every
death, and to return the deaths from the same causes under synonymous
names, sanctioned by the Congress. It has in this instance set the
example of establishing what is most desirable in all other branches of
statistics, namely, the agreement upon well-defined terms. There ought
to exist no greater difficulty in arriving at such an agreement in the
case of the various crimes than in that of “causes of death;” and it
must be remembered that it is one of the first tasks and duties of every
science to start with a definition of terms. What is it that is meant by
a house, a family, an adult, an educated or an uneducated person; by
murder, manslaughter, and so on? It is evident that, as long as a
different sense is attached to these terms in different returns, their
use for comparison is nil, and for simple study very much deteriorated;
and still we have not yet arrived at such a simple and obvious
desideratum! The different weights, measures, and currencies in which
different statistics are expressed, cause further difficulties and
impediments. Suggestions with regard to the removal of these have been
made at former meetings, and will no doubt be renewed. We fancy here
that our Pound, as the largest available unit, with its Florin, offers
great advantages, particularly if further subdivided decimally.
We hope to lay before you, as far as Great Britain is concerned, the
Registrar-General’s analysis of the causes of death, and the dangers
that people encounter at each period of life; complete returns of the
produce of our mines; the agricultural returns of Ireland, in which the
Registrar-General of that country has given every year the breadth of
land under every kind of crop, with an estimate of its produce as well
as its value, and has proved, by his success in obtaining these facts at
a comparatively moderate expense, and by the voluntary assistance of the
landowners and cultivators, as well as of the clergy of all
denominations, that the apprehension was groundless that it could not be
done without inordinate cost, or without injuring individual interests.
We must hope that, considering its importance with regard to all
questions affecting the food of the people, this inquiry will not only
be extended to England and Scotland, but also to the Continent
generally, wherever it may not already have been instituted. Our trade
returns will exhibit the great effects produced on our commerce by the
changes in our commercial system; our colonial delegates will exhibit to
you proofs of the wonderful progress of their countries, and proofs, at
the same time, that elaborate statistics have rendered them conscious of
that progress; and I have no doubt that the foreign delegates will more
than repay us by the information which they will give us in exchange.
These returns will no doubt prove to us afresh, in figures, what we know
already from feeling and from experience—how dependent the different
nations are upon each other for their progress, for their moral and
material prosperity, and that the essential condition of their mutual
happiness is the maintenance of peace and goodwill amongst each other.
Let them still be rivals, but rivals in the noble race of social
improvement, in which, although it may be the lot of one to arrive first
at the goal, yet all will equally share the prize, all feeling their own
powers and strength increase in the healthy competition.
I should detain you longer than I feel justified in doing, and should
perhaps trench upon the domain and duties of Presidents of Sections, if
I were to allude to the points which will there be specially recommended
to your attention and consideration; but I trust that it will not be
thought presumptuous in me if I exhort you generally not to lose
yourselves in points of minute detail, however tempting and attractive
they may be from their intrinsic interest and importance, but to direct
your undivided energies to the establishment of those broad principles
upon which the common action of different nations can be based, which
common action must be effected, if we are to make real progress. I know
that this Congress can only suggest and recommend, and that it must
ultimately rest with the different Governments to carry out those
suggestions. Many previous recommendations, it is true, have been
carried out, but many have been left unattended to; and I will not
except our own country from blame in this respect. Happy and proud
indeed should I feel if this noble gathering should be enabled to lay
the solid foundation of an edifice, necessarily slow of construction,
and requiring, for generations to come, laborious and persevering
exertion, intended as it is for the promotion of human happiness, by
leading to the discovery of those eternal laws upon which that universal
happiness is dependent!
May He, who has implanted in our hearts a craving after the discovery of
truth, and given us our reasoning faculties to the end that we should
use them for this discovery, sanctify our efforts and bless them in
their results.
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LONDON: PRINTED BY W. CLOWES AND SONS, STAMFORD STREET,
AND CHARING CROSS.
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● Transcriber’s Notes:
○ In sections where the quotes are numbered, some numbers do not
appear in the sequences. E.g. “Dinner at the Trinity House,” page
149 and following.
○ Missing or obscured punctuation was silently corrected.
○ Typographical errors were silently corrected.
○ Inconsistent spelling and hyphenation were made consistent only
when a predominant form was found in this book.
○ Text that was in italics is enclosed by underscores (_italics_).