THE FAILURE OF THE OLD EUROPEAN SYSTEM
Much has been written to prove that one side or the other was
responsible for the present war. Minute facts, as the words in a
dispatch, or the time at which the troops were mobilized, or whether
or not a preliminary summons of troops to the colors was in itself an
act of mobilization, have become the subjects of bitter debate. Such
questions will have to be settled by the historians of the future
years: they cannot be discussed here with any profit, since this book
is an appeal to the reason of men on each side of the controversy.
Back of the events of July, 1914, is a more fundamental cause of the
war. It is the breakdown of the systems of concert and balance to
which the powers had trusted themselves. Castlereagh and Metternich
allowed themselves to slip into these theories, when they set aside
the suggestion of a federated Europe, which came from Alexander I.
Granted that the tsar’s dream was too ethereal for a world steeped in
selfishness, it does not follow that a policy entirely devoted to the
balancing of selfishness with selfishness would have preserved peace.
On the other hand, we must admit that nations are not idealists.
Selfishness is their doctrine. So long as the project of a federation
is viewed idealistically it is practically impossible. But if it ever
comes to be admitted by the people who count in political things that
it is for the interests of the nations to adopt it, that is, if it is
brought within what we may call the sphere of selfishness, it ceases to
be idealistic and comes to be a subject worthy of the consideration of
the practical statesman.
Furthermore, the political philosopher has ever to answer the question,
“What about the future?” What are we going to do after the present
debauch of waste and murder is over? Are we to trust the world to
the same old forces that brought us this ruin? One says that human
nature is the same forever, that it learns only in the hard school of
experience, and that it must fight its wars as the price it pays for
being human nature. To such a man the Napoleonic wars did all that
could be expected of them when they so impressed the world with the
cost of war that a system was adopted which gave the world a measure
of peace for a hundred years. “What more can you ask?” said such a
philosopher to me. In humble responsibility to the throne of reason I
reply that we can try as intelligent beings to remove the war madness
permanently, making it our duty to posterity to do the best we can.
Some generation must make the start, or we shall wring our hands
forever.
In this chapter I wish to show in what way the old system crumbled
before the desire of world power. It seems a vicious system by virtue
of its innate qualities of selfishness, and it is all the more to be
feared because its subtle spirit gets control of our own hearts as
well as the hearts of other men. While our opponents--Germany and
Austria--were following the system to its bitter conclusion, our
friends--Great Britain, France, and Italy--were doing nearly the
same things, but in a slightly different way. And there is no reason
to expect that under the continuation of the balancing of great and
ambitious world powers we shall have more respect for the rights of
one another than we had in the past.
The system of Balance of Power flourished best in Bismarck’s time.
It was his strong personality that held together the Three Emperors’
League for a brief season and the Triple Alliance for a longer period.
Each of these groups had certain interests in common which gave them
coherence: Bismarck alone knew how to exploit these mutual advantages
and lessen the jars of clashing feelings. His objects were made easier
by the fact that most of the other nations of Europe at that time had
developed quarrels of their own. Great Britain and Russia were at
swords’ points over the Far Eastern question, and France and Great
Britain had not forgotten their century old antagonism, which only a
minor dispute was sufficient to set aflame.
Moreover, Great Britain was engaged in a vast task of empire building.
Manufactures increased rapidly in the United Kingdom, an ever growing
trade threw out ever expanding tentacles to the remotest parts of the
world, and the growth of the colonies produced greater prosperity at
home and abroad than the most hopeful Briton had previously thought
within the bounds of probability. She was too busy with this splendid
process of internal prosperity to take notice of what was happening on
the Continent, so long as her own interests were not threatened. From
her standpoint Bismarck’s policy of preserving peace through the means
of a German predominating influence was a welcome relief from other
burdens.
This state of affairs was prolonged for at least fifteen years after
the death of Bismarck. Kaiser Wilhelm II’s temperamental impetuousness
did not break up the balance that had been established, although many
prophets had foretold such a thing. As the corner-stone of the Triple
Alliance Germany was looked upon as the protector of European peace,
and the kaiser, it is said, was pleased to regard himself as the man
especially responsible for that policy.
It is difficult to say when and how this happy situation began to
be undermined and whose was the responsibility. One cause of the
rupture was the rapid growth of German manufactures and trade, which
brought about stern competition between the business interests of
Germany and Great Britain. The newspapers of the two nations, like
all other newspapers of modern times, were closely connected with the
capitalistic interests of the respective states, and voiced the alarm
and antipathy of the industrial classes. Thus the people of Germany
and the people of Britain were stimulated to a condition of mutual
distrust. They believed that each practiced the most disreputable
tricks of competition against the other, and each talked of destroying
the industry of the other. It is difficult to say who is responsible
for the beginning of commercial rivalry.
Late in the last century Germany began to enlarge her navy with the
evident purpose of making it rival the navy of Great Britain. Her
justification was found in the idea that a navy was necessary to
protect the great commerce that she was building up. At the same time
German writers began to make many criticisms on the British claim of
being mistress of the seas. “Freedom of the seas” became a phrase of
comfort in their mouths. It is not clear that it meant what it seemed
to say; for the seas were as free to the Germans in times of peace as
to any other people, and Germany’s plan to build a great fleet that
would defeat the British fleet would establish that same kind of rule
at sea that Great Britain through her naval superiority then held.
Now it is very certain that Germany had a perfect right to enter each
of these two fields of endeavor. The contests of industry are open to
all, and the laws of peace protect them. She had the right, also, to
build up her navy, although she should not have expected to overtop the
British navy specifically without arousing the hostility of the British
people. The insular position of the United Kingdom and its relations
with its colonies are such that a navy is its surest protection if
assailed in war; and to fall into a second position is to hold its life
at the permission of another state. Germany must have seen this phase
of the situation. Her statesmen were poor leaders of men if they did
not realize that they were entering upon a rivalry in which was the
possibility of great resistance.
Another phase of the opposition that was steadily rising against
Germany was the general alarm at the growth of her military power. Her
army and navy ever increased in size and readiness for that initial
rush to victory which is half the struggle in modern war. At the same
time German leaders did not disguise their desire for the enlargement
of German territory on the Continent. The Pan-German party made a great
deal of noise, and other nations were not reassured by being told that
the party was not as strong as its agitation seemed to indicate.
Now and again one read in some German paper an assertion to the effect
that Germany was bound to become the dominant power in Europe and that
she would next turn on the United States. How many Americans have
not heard some over-confident German friend make a prophecy of like
import? It was evident that many Germans regarded the great republic
of the West as an over-fattened commercial nation without the power of
resistance and destined at the proper time to furnish rich nourishment
for their conquering arms. That we considered these thoughts but the
idle boasts of a nation intoxicated by success did not lessen the
conviction of ourselves and others that Germany was running into a
state of mind that required coöperative measures of resistance on the
part of people who might become victims of her infatuation.
While these two processes of national feeling ran their courses,
several political events, which have already been described added
vigor to the antagonism that was rising against Germany. Her attitude
toward the Boers when they were at war against Great Britain was one,
Delcassé’s wise adjustment of the Fashoda incident was another, his
clever formation of the _Entente Cordiale_ between France and Britain
was another, the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese alliance was still
another, the defeat of Russia by Japan and her elimination as a threat
against British interests in India was another, and the formation of
the Triple _Entente_ by Great Britain, France, and Russia, announced in
1907, was the final act of the series. Great Britain was not only again
seriously concerned in Continental affairs, but a combination had been
formed of three great European nations, with the strongest power of the
East as a flying buttress, to hold back the much dreaded aggressions
of the Triple Alliance, consisting of Germany, Austria, and Italy. The
Balance of Power had come to its most logical state of development;
for instead of having one great state balancing between the other
states around it, we now had the great states of the world ranged in
two camps, each side checking the other in the belief that in so doing
it was preserving the world from war.
It is hard to establish a balance when two opposing sides are strong
and mutually jealous of one another; for the opposition of forces is
then formed to secure mutual advantages, and not to promote the common
interest through the preservation of equilibrium. In such a case one
side or the other, possibly each side, is apt to fancy itself the
stronger, and if it acts on that assumption it arouses the apprehension
of the other which finds itself tempted to make a counter stroke.
Once such a step is taken equilibrium is lost. This is what happened
in 1914. The train of events that led up to the destruction of the
international balance is now to be described.
Here we must go back to the days when Delcassé was foreign secretary
in Paris, 1898-1905. One of his achievements was to come to agreement
with Spain and Italy in reference to the northern coast of Africa. He
effected a treaty with the former nation by which French and Spanish
spheres of influence in Morocco were defined, and another with Italy
by which the right of France in Tunis was accorded in exchange for
recognition of the right of Italy to Tripoli and Cyrenaica.
Making this treaty by Italy did not constitute treason to the Triple
Alliance, since it was clearly advantageous for Italy without
infringing the rights of either Germany or Austria; but it alarmed
Germany, already drawing close to Turkey, because the object of Italian
policy was to get territory over which Turkey had a vital claim. Nor
was it pleasant for the kaiser to see one of the members of the Triple
Alliance acting in coöperation with the members of the _Entente_ in so
important a matter.
Taking these achievements in connection with the formation of the Dual
Alliance and the mutual approach of France and Great Britain, Germany
had reason to feel that she was being isolated. Her whole population
resented this turn of events, seeing in it a sort of challenge hurled
forth by France, who at last found herself strong enough to assume
a position of self-assertion. It is true that Delcassé only placed
Germany in a position of isolation like that which Bismarck imposed on
France for many years; and it was, in strict logic, as fair for him
to treat Germany thus as for Bismarck to isolate France. Let Germany
submit to her fate, as France submitted, when she had to submit. But
we are not dealing with logical matters here. It is a plain fact that
confronts us. Germany, who had been strong through three decades
without seeking to expand her territory, suddenly realized that
her opponents were forming a combination stronger than hers, their
acquisition of territory that followed set her in a rage, and she made
plans for getting her share in the world that was to be taken. Under
the system of balance then recognized as the proper means of regulating
international relations her course was a natural result of Delcassé’s
policy.
The particular portion of the earth to which she turned her eyes was
Turkey. While she supported the plans of Austria-Hungary to acquire
territory on the Adriatic, she herself looked further to the East. She
encouraged the party at Constantinople known as the “Young Turks,”
she furnished improved arms to the Turkish army, she formed plans
to establish her influence in Palestine, and she projected a great
railroad to Bagdad in the center of the Euphrates-Tigris Valley. It was
a sphere of influence that might be considered more than a fair offset
for the lands her rivals were about to gain.
At the same time Germany found a means of restoring her prestige, which
was sorely wilted by the progress of her rivals. The occasion arose in
connection with France’s occupation of Morocco, which had begun without
the aid or consent of the kaiser.
Morocco had long been under a line of independent sultans. Most of
her commerce was with Great Britain although German capitalists had
received concessions within her border. As the country next to the
French province of Algeria, France looked upon it as her own particular
sphere of influence. We have already seen that Italy conceded this
claim, 1901, while France conceded Italy’s claim to Tripoli and
Cyrenaica. In 1904 France conceded Great Britain’s practical supremacy
in Egypt and in return was assured the protectorate over Morocco. She
asked no concession from Germany but came to an agreement with Spain,
who had a small strip of territory south of the Straits of Gibraltar.
In 1905 Delcassé was quietly preparing to carry out his plan for the
development of Morocco, when the kaiser landed in Tangiers without
the slightest warning, and announced in a public address that he had
come to visit his friend, the independent sultan of Morocco, in whose
country all foreign nations had equal rights. The speech was received
by the world as a challenge to France and a means of announcing that
Germany was no longer to be ignored. The moment of the landing at
Tangiers was well chosen by the kaiser; for only three weeks earlier
Russia, the ally of France, had been defeated by the Japanese at Mukden
and could give her no assistance.
In this unfortunate situation it was necessary for France to bend
before the storm. She agreed to submit the whole Moroccan question
to an international congress, thus appealing to the principle of the
Concert of Europe, and when she learned that the kaiser demanded that
she dismiss the minister whose hands had been played so skillfully
against Germany, she agreed to that also.
The dismissal of Delcassé recalls an incident of 1807. In that year
Napoleon forced the king of Prussia to dismiss Stein, his great
minister, who was bending all his efforts to reëstablish Prussia on a
war footing. It marked the triumph of Napoleon’s power for the time
being, but it was a futile action; for Stein out of office under such
circumstances had more influence than ever, and the shameful way in
which he was treated only emphasized Prussia’s humiliation and made the
Prussians more determined than ever to assert their national power.
Similar results in France in 1905 followed the stab given to that
nation’s faithful and efficient minister.
The international congress assembled at Algeciras in 1906. It adopted
a compromise decision, which gave something to each side and satisfied
neither. Germany was supposed to have gained when the congress
recognized the territorial integrity of Morocco under the sovereignty
of the sultan and guaranteed equal rights of trade in the country to
the citizens of all the signatory powers. On the other hand, France
and Spain were jointly to have the right to instruct and furnish
officers for the Moroccan police force. Winning in a quarrel rarely
makes the victor think well of the vanquished. Certainly Germany,
who had now blocked the plans of France, was not less bitter in her
attitude toward that nation; while France, feeling that she had been
caught at a disadvantage, smothered her indignation and waited for the
opportunity to make things even.
In 1907 disturbances occurred in Moroccan ports and French marines
were landed to preserve order. When they were not withdrawn in a year
Germany protested and an irritating diplomatic discussion followed. At
last Germany was persuaded to submit the point actually at issue to
the Hague tribunal, whose decision was not conclusive and satisfied
neither side. Then a Franco-German convention was held to pass on the
rights of each nation in Morocco. Its decision, given in February,
1909, announced that the interest of Germany in the province was
only economic; and as France agreed to give equal protection in such
matters, the kaiser promised he would not interfere in the country. In
each of these incidents war seemed about to begin, and Europe awaited
the results in great anxiety. When the clouds lifted the nations
breathed freely again.
Still there was no way under the existing system to solve the
difficulty that presented itself, had Germany only decided that she
would not trust her cause to peaceful negotiation. The fact that she
took such a step was to her own people but a mark of the kaiser’s
love of peace. This and similar incidents, in which the militarists
carried their country to the verge of war only to be held back by the
hand of the emperor served to lay the foundation for that popular
belief in Germany that a peace policy had been steadily followed under
provocations and that Europe was indebted to Wilhelm II for immunity
from war. In reality the system of balance of power had needlessly
brought the world to the verge of a bitter and unnecessary conflict.
Almost immediately after the war clouds lifted Europe had evidence of
the small amount of tolerance the leading classes of Germany had for
the slightest manifestation of the spirit of compromise in the matter
under discussion. The chancellor under whom the recent settlement was
made was von Bülow, who thought it better to adjust so small a quarrel
than to incur the responsibility of war. His action received the stern
denunciation of the military party. So strong was the criticism that he
was forced to retire from office, his place going to Bethmann-Hollweg,
who had the support of the militarists. The only explanation to be
advanced for this turn of the affair is that the German national spirit
was so much excited by the long agitation of men like Treitschke that a
concession which others might consider only trifling seemed to them a
sacrifice of national honor.
In 1911 occurred a third Moroccan incident, in which Bethmann-Hollweg
took occasion to recover some of the attitude of assertiveness that
von Bülow had given up in 1909. In pursuance of their plan to extend
their protectorate over Morocco the French occupied Fez with a military
force. A short time later the German warship _Panther_ entered the
Moroccan port of Agadir, ostensibly to protect German property. It was
soon known that the German government proposed to hold the _Panther_ at
Agadir until the French withdrew from Fez. The war spirit again flared
up. Russia still suffered from the wounds received from the hands
of the Japanese, which Germany well knew; but Great Britain was in
fighting condition and announced her support of France. After a short
discussion Germany took a more complaisant attitude, and a settlement
was made whereby the French were allowed a protectorate over Morocco
on condition that they guarantee an “open door” in Moroccan trade and
transfer to Germany two valuable strips of territory in the French
Congo region.
Again Europe breathed easily, and again wise men reflected that no real
settlement had been made. France had been bluffed out of a valuable
portion of her Congo colony and was not disposed to endure the affront
longer than was necessary. Some day Russia would be fully restored
to her strength and ready to help her ally in the face of German
aggression. Until then France would have to yield. Meanwhile she was
consoled by the reflection that Great Britain had pronounced for her
openly. That was something to take to heart. The great sea power,
though slow to anger, was at last conscious of her danger if Germany
overran France and seized a channel port.
On the other hand, Germany was not fully pleased at the outcome of
the affair. The appearance of Great Britain in it was an indication
that the _Entente_ was a thing of vitality. Germany had been forced
to moderate her demands, taking colonial territory while her whole
thought for the future was not developing African colonies but curbing
the power of France. Not only was France not checked, but she was much
strengthened in a vital part of her power. She had acquired lands in
just the region that she needed them to carry out her ambition to
control the western end of the Mediterranean. If some day Spain were to
become a republic, could she fail to establish cordial relations with
the republic of France, and thus be swept into the anti-German group?
It may well be that in these reflections were born two German impulses:
first to win Great Britain to some kind of a compromise with Germany,
detaching her, at least for a time, from the _Entente_; and second, to
strike a vital blow before Russia was entirely recovered. Within the
next three years she acted on each of these impulses.
At the same time it became evident that the Triple Alliance was
crumbling, and this was another source of anxiety to Germany. It meant
that she should hasten her steps if she was to carry forward her great
purpose. It was in September, 1911, while the Agadir incident was still
unsettled, that Italy began the war with Turkey to establish control
of Tripoli and Cyrenaica. In view of Germany’s well-known friendliness
with Turkey, this step was most unexpected. It could only mean that
Italy was not disposed to subordinate her own interests to those of
Germany at Constantinople. If she had not felt certain of support by
the _Entente_ powers, in case Germany turned on her, she would hardly
have ventured to begin the war.
Another advance made by _Entente_ powers within the period under
consideration was in Persia. This ancient state was in sad disorder.
Weak and unpatriotic shahs, bold bands of brigands, and foreign
intrigues plunged it into such a condition that it invited the
domination of foreign nations. Russia approached from the north, and
Great Britain appeared in the south, where rich oil fields had caught
her eye.
After some initial gains the two powers came to an agreement in 1907
by which they established their respective spheres of influence, so
that Persia was occupied at the two ends, north and south, by strong
powers, and the middle portion was in such a chaotic state that its
future seemed very doubtful. By making loans to the shah and furnishing
capital for public improvements British and Russian capitalists enabled
their respective countries to tighten their grips on Persia. Soon that
country was in the throes of revolution, a so-called Nationalist party
came into power which was not able to rule without the aid of Russia
and Great Britain. So far did the foreign influence go that Morgan W.
Shuster, an American financial adviser of the shah who had tried hard
to place the government on a satisfactory basis, was fain to withdraw
from Persia in despair. To the rest of the world it seemed that the
independence of the country was near its end.
A mere glance will show us what these developments meant for Germany
and Austria-Hungary. Remembering that Italy was acting with the
_Entente_ in her African policy, we see that the entire southern shore
of the Mediterranean was passing into hands adverse to the central
powers, and that the new combination stretched out a long arm to the
Persian Gulf and the region south of the Caspian. In view of Germany’s
hope that she would some day gain through Syria a railway route to the
Far East, the trend of things in Persia threatened to close the narrow
gap that was left her for such a route by completing the absorption
of the kingdom of the shah. Should she allow the gap to be stopped,
or should she strike while there was still time? And if she did not
strike, what was there in the system of the Balance of Power that could
be counted on as a guarantee that she was not a passive victim to the
play of politics in the system then in use?
Furthermore, it was evident that Germany’s prestige was being
undermined by the progressive steps of her rivals. Three times had
she rattled the saber over the Moroccan incidents, and each time with
decreasing terror in the minds of her opponents. Perhaps its rattling
had been one of the main facts in promoting the union of those
opponents, since it always brought before them the picture of Germany
embattled against the rest of Europe. To strike a blow that would teach
France and Russia a lesson would restore German prestige and bring the
balance back to the German side of the rivalry, if it did not do more.
There is good ground for the guess that it was expected in high
quarters in Berlin that the blow would do far more than restore
prestige. It is true that the plan to which I am about to refer has not
been openly accepted by responsible agents of state, but it was widely
advocated by a portion of the people, the Pan-Germans. It involved the
union of Austria-Hungary and Germany in a great state, Mittel-Europa,
with strong influence in the Near East. Treitschke and many others had
written and spoken for such a thing, and to a large number of Germans
it had become a sacred ideal. When some one spoke to the deaf Colussus
about the acquisition of territory in Africa he exclaimed: “Cameroons?
What are we to do with this sand-box? Let us take Holland; then we
shall have colonies.” It was a part of the dream of the Pan-Germans
that the proposed Mittel-Europa should extend from the Baltic to the
Black Sea. If such a thing could be carried through, how excellent a
trump card to play against the _Entente_ plotters!
Francis Joseph, of Austria-Hungary, was too stout a patriot to hand his
country over to the schemes of the Pan-Germans, but he was approaching
an already long deferred demise. The heir-apparent, Ferdinand, was
supposed to be a great admirer of the kaiser, and the advocates of
union had high hopes that he would promote their desires. Suddenly
came the crime of Sarajevo. In a peculiar manner it dashed the hopes
of the dreamers; for not only was their chief reliance taken away,
but the new heir-apparent was supposed to be a pacific man who would
favor constitutional government. Such a ruler would hardly support
the formation of a great empire built after the fashion of Prussian
autocracy. It was the inspiration of the moment to have the war come,
and demonstrate the glory of Germany and Austria-Hungary, while the
old emperor still lived. And if it was precipitated in the interest of
Austria-Hungary, that was all the greater reason that the people of
the dual empire should feel under obligation to the military power that
carried it through. Possibly they would be so much impressed that they
would sweep a youthful emperor on with them in the realization of a
great united empire.
It is not certain how far the Pan-German party controlled the policy of
government in July, 1914; but it does not seem too much to attribute
such plans to men who did not hesitate to dream of the annexation
of Holland and who had definitely planned for the acquisition of
Constantinople. The imagination of a German patriot is no mean thing
in ordinary situations; but a great sweep would be vouchsafed to it
when its possessor realized that his country was being outplayed by
the diplomats and the grim Captain of Death. It was an extraordinary
situation that the Germans confronted in July, 1914, and there was not
much time for deliberation.
This chapter is not written to show that Germany was, or was not,
responsible for the war. If it explains how it was that the German
people believed that the war was forced on them, it will accomplish
more than it was designed to accomplish. But it is intended to enable
persons to keep calm heads in these times of perplexity in order to
understand how each side approached the great conflict. It is evident
that the _Entente_ powers thought that Germany wished to change Europe
into a great empire with herself at the head, while the central powers
felt that the chains were being riveted around about them.
In view of this long train of events the last week in that fateful July
assumes small proportions. If Ferdinand had not been killed war would
still have hung over the horizon. If Serbia had accepted the Austrian
ultimatum war would still have threatened; for though it may have been
averted for the moment, the Triple _Entente_ would still have existed,
nor would it have brooked the increase of German prestige that the
backdown of Serbia would have implied. If Russia had not mobilized her
army, Germany may not have mobilized, but the ancient fear of Russia as
an overwhelming opponent when she was once organized in the modern way
would have remained as a threat of dire consequences.
The theory of the Balance of Power is built upon the idea that states
act for their own interests in the restraint of one another from
overweening ambition. At bottom it is selfish. It assumes a state
of rivalry; and it is necessary to the theory that as fast as one
side gains in strength the other shall gain also. If the _Entente_
nations acquire Morocco, Tripoli, Cyrenaica, and parts of Persia, the
central powers must gain also or they are over-balanced. And who is to
determine how much they shall gain? Manifestly each will strive to get
all it can. The very process of gaining stimulates antipathy and makes
war a probability.
Another observation that is worthy of consideration is that balance is
logically possible only when more than two sides are opposed to one
another. When Great Britain, France and Russia had varying purposes
it was not difficult for Bismarck to play one against the other and
so keep the equilibrium. But when it happened that the central powers
became so strong that they constituted a threat against every other
nation in the world, it was natural for the other nations to unite to
check them. In such a condition no true balance of power could exist,
and it was folly to expect that theory to serve as it served in former
days.
One of the things the world ought to learn from the war that now
afflicts it is that no nation can conquer the world by stealth. It is
one of the happy shortcomings of political selfishness that its agents
usually fancy they can cover their tracks. How often do we see a bad
politician doing something wrong in the false confidence that while he
knows what he is doing the people cannot see it! So with Germany in the
years before the war. Making her plans for large accretions of power,
she thought she could steal a march on other nations and gain in a
spurt a position from which at a later time she could extend her power
by other and still larger sweeps of conquest. She did not think that
the other nations would take part until it was too late.
But the rest of the world was as wide awake as she. No man in England
accustomed to view political things in the large failed to see the
instant the war began that the hour of crisis for his country was at
hand. If Great Britain had not fought in August, 1914, she would have
been the stupidest nation in the world. To have allowed her greatest
rival to sit down in the French channel ports would have been suicidal
for her. The only probable explanation of Germany’s failure to realize
this is that she had become so confident of the superiority of her own
mind that she thought all other minds were sodden.
In a similar way, when she had carried on the war for two years and
a half and resorted to the submarine in ruthless attacks on American
ships of commerce, she should have known that she was giving the United
States a reason for participating in the war at a time when it was
clear to most Americans that their national safety demanded that they
should take part. If by this kind of battle the Germans forced Europe
to bend to her, what could we expect in the future? The very imminence
of German success demanded that the United States should throw herself
into the struggle. And after the war is over this truth will be written
indelibly in the pages of history: No great nation can be allowed to
conquer the world piecemeal.