THE DAWN OF "THE DAY."
The great instrument of the Kaiser's ambition is his army. Every male
who is a German subject can be called upon to serve as a soldier from
his seventeenth to his forty-fifth year. Though this is the law, men who
are not strong, or have to support a family, or intend to be ministers
of the Church, are excused from serving. Most German boys, however, know
from childhood that they will have not only to learn a trade or prepare
themselves for a profession, but become soldiers as well. As a rule,
Germans begin their military training at twenty-one. If a young man has
done well at one of the higher-grade schools, and can afford to keep
himself, he need only spend one year with the colours; all others must
be trained for two years if they are in the infantry, and three years if
they are in the cavalry and horse artillery. When this time is over they
go back to their work, and belong to the reserve. The two-year men serve
five years with the first-line reserve, and the three-year men four
years. Large bodies of the reserve are called up each year for exercise,
but the same men are not called up more than once in two years, and, as
a rule, their service amounts to two periods of about thirty days each.
From the first-line reserve men pass into the _Landwehr_,[148] or second
reserve, for five or six years if infantry, and for a longer period if
cavalry. They, too, are called up from time to time for training, which
lasts from a week to a fortnight. Finally, they pass into the
_Landsturm_, and are only called up now and then for roll-call. Except
in such special times of stress as the present war, the _Landsturm_ are
not required to serve in the field. Under ordinary conditions they leave
the army altogether at the age of forty-five.
If you look at the diagram on page 150 you will see a comparison of the
war strength of the great Powers of Europe. Germany has a population of
65,000,000, and her war strength is given as 4,500,000 men. As a last
resource she can probably put into the field 7,500,000 men. Russia has a
population of 141,000,000 in Europe alone; her war strength is given as
5,500,000 men, but as a last resource she can probably call to the
colours about 15,000,000 men. You thus see that the great military
Power which stands in the way of Germany's overlordship of Europe is
Russia. Bismarck knew this well, and he constantly insisted that Germany
should always keep on good terms with Russia. Since the Kaiser took the
helm into his own hands, he has regarded the growth of the Russian army
as a great menace to his power, and has come to the conclusion that
unless something is done, and done quickly, to check it, he cannot
realize his ambitions.
He and his advisers have always regarded Germany as the heir of Austria.
For long it has been thought that Austria-Hungary would go to pieces on
the death of Franz Josef, and that Austria would then be included in the
German Empire. Now Austria, as you know, possesses Bosnia and
Herzegovina, which would give Germany a footing in the Balkan Peninsula,
and enable her to push her way southward to warm water ports on the
Mediterranean Sea. Should Germany be able to capture Constantinople she
would soon be mistress of Asia Minor, and would hold a very powerful
position on the sea road to India. Her dreams of world-empire would then
be likely to come true.
[Illustration: The Kaiser as a Yachtsman.
_Photo, Record Press._]
Germany has already obtained a footing in Asia Minor. As far back as
1898 the Emperor and the Empress visited the Sultan at Constantinople,
where they were received with all honour, and the Empress accepted from
the Commander of the Faithful[149] a present of diamonds worth £25,000.
Then the Kaiser and his wife visited the Holy Land, and entered
Jerusalem to take part in the dedication service of a German church
within the walls of the Holy City. At this service His Majesty was
attired in the white uniform of the Garde du Corps, with a white silk
mantle such as was worn by the Crusaders. Before him was borne aloft the
German Imperial standard.
In the following year, thanks to the Kaiser, the Sultan gave a German
company permission to build a railway line from Konieh[150] to the
Persian Gulf, by way of Bagdad.[151] You can easily understand that a
German railway through Asia Minor to the head of the Persian Gulf would
practically make Germany master of all the resources of this part of the
world. France was not willing that the railway should be entirely
German, so she was allowed to provide some of the money for it. Great
Britain pointed out that the proposed line would be the shortest route
to India, and that it would end in the territory of a chief with whom
she had a special treaty, and that, therefore, Britain ought to have a
hand in it too. There was a great deal of debate over the question, and
at last it was agreed that the Germans should own four-tenths of the
line, and that the other six-tenths should be owned by Frenchmen,
Austrians, Swiss, Italians, and Turks. The railway was to end at
Basra,[152] and was not to be continued to the Persian Gulf without
Great Britain's consent. The Germans have spent between £16,000,000 and
£18,000,000 on this railway, which was begun in 1912, and is now half
built. In addition to the Bagdad railway, Germany has other important
undertakings in Asia Minor, which is rich in coal and copper, oil and
timber. The Russians, it should be noticed, have also large business
interests in the same part of the Turkish Empire.
What connection has all this with the present war? Let us see. You
already know that the late Sultan of Turkey was the friend of the
Kaiser, and that he had given the Germans some very valuable rights in
Asia Minor. Since that time German soldiers have trained the Turkish
army, German money has been lent to the Turkish Government, and German
influence has become so strong that we may almost regard Turkey as a
German province. In 1908 there was a revolution in Turkey, the Sultan
was forced from his throne, and his younger brother was chosen to take
his place. In the autumn of 1912 the Balkan States declared war on
Turkey, and beat her very badly. When the war was over all that remained
of her territory in Europe was a little country less than twice the size
of Wales. Serbia had become very powerful in the Balkan Peninsula.
Now this did not suit Germany at all. The Kaiser saw very clearly that
if Serbia became the chief power in the Balkan Peninsula, Germany would
be crushed out, and her interests in Asia Minor would be in great
jeopardy. From the German point of view it was necessary that Serbia
should be crippled as soon as possible.
You remember the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand, which I described to
you in Chapter I. of this book. Austria was naturally very angry with
Serbia, and was bent on making her pay dearly for her part in the crime.
The Kaiser egged on Austria to fight Serbia, because he thought that a
war would give him an excellent chance of reducing Serbia's strength,
and of beginning that career of conquest on which he was now bent.
[Illustration: Great Britain 572
France 342
Russia 167
Japan 152
Germany 327
Austria-Hungary 115
Italy 177
Navies of the Great Powers in January 1914 (_The figures give the total
numbers of serviceable war vessels_)
Great Britain 800,000
France 4,500,000
Russia 5,500,000
Belgium 340,000
Servia 300,000
Japan 1,400,000
Germany 4,500,000
Austria-Hungary 2,500,000
Italy 2,250,000
War Strength of the Great Powers in June 1914
The above diagram compares the armies and navies of the chief European
Powers.]
We know, from a French Yellow Book[153] which was published on December
1, 1914, why the Germans wanted war, and what preparations they made for
it. From a dispatch written by the French Ambassador at Berlin, we
gather that even in July 1913 the Germans thought war was "inevitable,"
for the following reasons. Since the Franco-German War the national
pride of the Germans has been fostered to such an extent that they
really do believe themselves to be the greatest, strongest, and most
efficient nation of the world. They believe that they must have colonies
in order to provide new markets and an outlet for their surplus
population, and they are very sore at the failure of their attempts to
win them. In this respect they are specially angry with us and with
France, because they consider that we and the French gained a victory
over them in 1911, when they tried to secure a part of Morocco,[154] and
were prevented from doing so. They cannot bear to think that a country
which they beat so badly in 1870 should dare to stand in their way. The
great manufacturers of guns and armour plate, and the chief merchants,
believe that war is "good business," and in this belief they are
strongly backed up by the nobles and military class. The soldiers are
naturally anxious for war because it is their profession, and because
war brings that quick promotion which is impossible in time of peace.
The nobles fear the growing power of the people, and believe that they
will only be able to preserve their "rights" by means of a war which
will turn the nation's thoughts away from plans of reform. Armed peace
such as Germany has maintained for many years past is a crushing burden
to the nation; it swallows up the money which might be expended on
improving the condition of the people, and turns many of them into
Socialists.
From a secret report to the German Government, which somehow fell into
French hands in April 1914, we learn how Germany proposed to prepare for
this "inevitable" war. Since 1906 she has increased her Army four
times, and in 1913 she raised from her people a war levy of £50,000,000.
Her object in increasing the Army and raising this money is clearly
revealed in the course of the report--namely, to fortify and extend
German power "throughout the whole world." In order to do this, the
people were to be taught that Germany must begin a war because her foes
were threatening her, and that such a war would make their burdens
lighter, and give them many years of peace and prosperity. When the mind
of the people was thus prepared, discontent was to be stirred up amongst
the native peoples in the French and British possessions of North Africa
and Egypt, as well as in Russia, so that these countries would be full
of revolt when war was declared. As for the small states, such as
Belgium and Holland, they must be forced to follow Germany, or be
conquered. If Belgium should prepare to resist, she would be invaded, in
spite of the treaty which guaranteed her neutrality. All this was
arranged as far back as May 1913.
In November of the same year King Albert of Belgium[155] had an
interview with the Emperor and General von Moltke. It was then very
clear that the Kaiser had been won over by the war party. The French
Minister suggests that the Kaiser was jealous of the popularity of his
son, the Crown Prince, who was then the rising hope of the soldiers. If
so, history had repeated itself. The Kaiser as a young man had played
for popularity against his father; the Crown Prince had followed his
father's example, and had tried to throw him into the shade. It is
probable, too, that the Emperor was very angry with France, because she
had strengthened her army by making her soldiers serve three years
instead of two.
[Illustration: King Albert of Belgium.
Photo, Newspaper Illustrations Limited.]
During this interview with King Albert the Kaiser and von Moltke threw
off the mask. They told the King that the time had come to "finish" with
France, and they assured him that the German army was bound to win. The
object of this conversation was to show the King of the Belgians that he
would be wise not to resist if war with France should arise. We shall
see later on that King Albert was not moved from the path of honour
either by threats or promises.
Meanwhile Germany was busy asking her ambassadors to find out what the
other Powers would be likely to do if Austria and Germany were to join
together to fight Serbia. Germany's agents at St. Petersburg[156] said
that Russia would not stir; there were serious labour troubles in that
country, and the Czar would be afraid to call his troops together for
fear they would join with the strikers. From France came the news that
the French army was not fit to fight. On the 13th of July a speaker in
the French Parliament declared that the forts were weak; that there was
not sufficient ammunition for the guns; and that the soldiers were
without a sufficient supply of boots. If war broke out the men would
have to take the field with one pair of boots, and only one reserve boot
in their knapsacks, and that one would be thirty years old. Thus the
Kaiser believed that Russia dared not fight, and that France could not
fight, because, as in 1870, she was unprepared.
But what of Britain? The Kaiser had flooded the British Isles with
spies, who kept him informed of every movement of our fleet and troops,
and gave him full information about all our political affairs. These
spies told him that civil war was about to break out in Ireland, and
that the Government would have its hands so full at home that it could
not possibly spare troops to fight on the Continent. The German
ambassador in London did not believe all this talk about civil war, and
he advised his Government not to rely upon it. The German Government,
however, would not listen to him. The Kaiser knew better; he believed
his spies.
Feeling sure, then, that Russia would not fight, that France could not
resist, and that Great Britain would not interfere in what seemed to be
a far-off quarrel, the Kaiser decided that "The Day," so long hoped for
and prepared for, had come. In July of the present year he was ready to
"let slip the dogs of war."
[Footnote 148: _Land´vair_.]
[Footnote 149: The Sultan of Turkey is the religious head of Mohammedans
throughout the world.]
[Footnote 150: _Kō´ni-ā_, town, Asia Minor, about 300 m. east of
Smyrna.]
[Footnote 151: Town of Mesopotamia, on the Tigris.]
[Footnote 152: Town on the Shat-el-Arab, 70 m. from the Persian Gulf.]
[Footnote 153: So called from the colour of its cover. It contains State
documents explaining how the war arose.]
[Footnote 154: Country of N. Africa. In 1911 the Germans made a treaty
with France, by which they agreed to let the French rule Morocco as a
protectorate in return for territory in the French Congo.]
[Footnote 155: Born 1875, nephew of Leopold, King of the Belgians, whom
he succeeded in 1909. He is a student, has travelled widely, and is
greatly interested in improving the lot of his people. He is very
popular with all classes of his subjects. The Socialists, of whom there
are many in Belgium, say that when Belgium becomes a republic Albert
will be their first president. His wife, Elizabeth, is a princess of
Bavaria; she has qualified as an oculist.]
[Footnote 156: Since the war began its name has been changed to
Petrograd.]