But the man who plays against a machine, if he has taken the
elementary course in the law of probabilities, can suffer under no
delusions and cannot give himself any reasonable excuse. He is bound
to lose. The odds on the machine are against him. And even if they
were not, it is entirely likely that the machine would win. An old
gambler contends that if a man matched pennies all day every day for a
month against a purely mechanical device he would quit a heavy loser.
The only way he could keep even would be to start out with "heads"
or "tails," and then go away and leave the machine at work, never
changing his bet. If he remained to watch the operation he would,
be sure to lose his head and begin to "guess" against the relentless
mechanism, and then he would lose.
In the ordinary coin-paying slot machine, the dial shows alternate
reds and blacks, interspersed here and there with quarters, halves
and, perhaps, $1. The player wins 5 cents on the black, 20 cents on
the quarter, 45 cents on the half, and 95 cents on the dollar. The
dials differ, but suppose there are thirty reds, thirty blacks, ten
quarters, five halves, and one dollar. The chances are against you,
then, on the red or black, 46 to 30; on the quarter, 66 to 24; on the
half, 71 to 24, and on the dollar, 75 to 19. Most players, it is said,
prefer the larger sums as a hazard in the coin machines, although the
probabilities against them are much greater. Again, they are dazzled
by the chance of winning a large sum at a small risk. Really, they are
betting their nickel against 3 cents on the red or black, and against
2 cents or less on the larger sums.