of expansion after the events which followed upon the retrocession of
the Transvaal to the Boers in 1881. Until that year it was practically
insignificant in its proportions and almost stationary in its volume,
being mainly assisted by the activity shown in the diamond industry,
gold not then having become a factor in quickening the commercial pulse.
In the year named, the total imports into the country from all sources
amounted to £11,140,027, of which the Cape Colony took, in round
figures, all but two millions. After 1881, however, the imports
steadily, if slowly, increased in bulk, which was due less to active
developments in South Africa itself than to the gradual opening up of
the country after the first Boer war. In 1891, in which year it may be
said the fabulous wealth of the Witwatersrand first began to attract the
attention of the civilised world, the value of the imports stood at
£12,230,270, of which the Cape Colony took practically the same amount
of goods as in 1881, while Natal had improved her position by taking
about one-fourth of the total. After 1891 the imports increased with
extraordinary rapidity in proportion as the gold industry made headway,
until in 1901 they touched the high-water mark with £31,595,332, or
practically three times what they stood at twenty years before.
In 1881, the quantity of goods imported from countries other than
England was so insignificant as not to be worth including in the
official returns, and so far as the United States was concerned
absolutely no trade with South Africa was done at all, and but very
little with the European Continent. In 1892, however, Germany and
America began to pay greater attention to the possibilities of what then
showed signs of becoming an exceedingly promising market, the share of
the former country in that year being only £231,172, while that of the
latter was £418,126. How successful they were in their efforts is seen
by the fact that with each succeeding year the value of the goods
entering South Africa from those countries grew by leaps and bounds,
until in 1901 the German share had increased to £1,118,010, and that of
the United States to £2,640,193. Neither of these amounts was, however,
the highest point reached by either Germany or America, their record
years being 1896 and 1898 respectively. It is unquestionable that had
British manufacturers paid sufficient attention to the possibilities of
the South African trade in the period from 1881-91, and had realised how
rapidly the country was developing, thereby quickening them to action,
the foreigner would not have got the hold upon its commerce which he now
has, the combined share of all the countries competing with Great
Britain amounting in 1901 to £4,590,681, or 14.9 per cent. of the total
imports. Although the purely British share was as much as 65.6 per
cent., the balance being made up by the shares of our Colonies and
non-competing countries (i.e. goods imported from countries that Great
Britain cannot supply), much remains to be done to retain even that
percental share; but it is satisfactory to note that the lessons of the
past have not been lost upon us, and that with the general awakening to
the foreign menace there is every likelihood that we shall more than
hold our own in the future, provided our manufacturers are not
handicapped by the exactions of labour, the excessive cost of which, and
the general disinclination of the Trades Unions to adopt modern
labour-saving machinery, being the two principal factors in determining
whether competition with other countries shall be effective or not.
[Illustration: CHURCH STREET EAST, PRETORIA
Photo by Barnett & Co., Johannesburg]
It may not be without interest to put on record the values of the
principal articles imported into South Africa in 1901 from all sources.
They were as follow:--
Animals, Live £71,771
Articles of Food and Drink 9,641,809
Articles of Personal Use 6,120,903
Builders' Materials 1,245,609
Drugs and Chemicals 437,610
Electrical Goods 136,964
Explosives and Weapons 119,379
Hardware, Cutlery, and Ironmongery 1,276,041
Household Requisites 1,969,724
Iron and Steel 596,928
Leather and Manufactures 394,525
Machinery, &c. 859,685
Paper, Books, &c. 689,216
Textile Manufactures 2,104,245
Vehicles and Vehicular Material 968,210
Other Articles 1,943,465
Goods by Parcels Post 520,265
Stores for Government 2,498,983
-----------
Total £31,595,332
===========
The purely British (_i.e._ the United Kingdom's) share in this trade was
as follows:
Animals, Living £29,306
Arms, Ammunition, &c. 143,697
Articles of Food and Drink 2,533,163
Articles of Personal Use 3,528,907
Builders' Materials, &c. 175,078
Drugs and Chemicals 423,190
Household Requisites 1,600,763
Ironmongery and Hardware 275,245
Leather and Manufactures 1,762,438
Machinery, Millwork, &c. 1,210,151
Metals and Manufactures 1,762,438
Oils, other than Essential 55,076
Paper and Stationery 577,228
Textile Manufactures 2,387,666
Vehicles and Parts 635,153
Vessels (Ships and Boats) 23,214
Wood and Timber 108,034
Miscellaneous Articles 965,655
-----------
Total £20,648,529
It is not without instruction to those who are unaware of the potential
character of South Africa's buying capacity, the reasons for which will
be more clearly set forth later on, to compare the amount spent on the
purchase of oversea goods by the white and black population with those
of our other colonies and India:--
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| |White |Native |Total |British |
| |Population.|Population.|Population.|Exports to.|
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| | | | | £ |
|Australia | 3,577,000 | 200,000| 3,777,000| 21,329,965|
|Canada | 5,170,000 | 201,000| 5,371,000| 8,153,815|
|India | 275,000 |294,000,000|294,295,000| 39,753,348|
|New Zealand | 767,000 | 52,000| 819,000| 5,601,979|
|South Africa| 1,007,000 | 3,000,000| 4,007,000| 20,326,006|
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| | Per Head | Per Head | Per Head |
| | White. | Native. | Total. |
| | | | |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| | £ _s._ _d._| £ _s._ _d._| £ _s._ _d._|
|Australia | 5 19 0 |106 12 0 | 5 13 0 |
|Canada | 1 11 6 | 40 11 2 | 1 10 4 |
|India |144 0 0 | 0 2 9 | 0 2 8 |
|New Zealand | 7 6 0 |107 14 3 | 6 16 0 |
|South Africa| 20 3 7 | 6 15 6 | 5 1 6 |
+------------+------------+------------+------------+
In other words, with the exception of India, where the European
population is not numerous, each white inhabitant in South Africa spends
vastly more in proportion to its population than any of our other
Colonies, or exactly £20, 3s. 7d. per head as against £7, 6s. for
Australia, the next highest, and £1, 11s. 6d. for Canada, the lowest,
or, with black and white combined, £5, 1s. 6d. per head of the total
population, as against 2s. 8d. for India, £1, 10s. 4d. for Canada, £5,
13s. for Australia, and £6, 16s. for New Zealand. A reference to the
above table clearly shows what an important customer the South African
native is for oversea goods, his annual purchases amounting to £6, 15s.
6d., which it will be seen is even more per head than that of the
Australian white population. This latter assumption is, of course,
purely deductive, but it is in the main fairly accurate.
Not only this, but it will surprise many to learn that of the total
British exports to our Colonies and India, South Africa is our third
best market. Moreover, in certain classes of goods, specified below, she
is also far and away our most important customer. For instance, of the
total exports from the United Kingdom to our Colonies and dependencies,
there were shipped in 1901:--
_Boots and Shoes._
To South Africa £881,266
" Australia 223,516
" India 125,256
" New Zealand 105,671
Of these South Africa took one-half of the total British exports.
_Apparel and Slops._
To South Africa £2,198,235
" Australia 1,353,878
" New Zealand 376,582
" Canada 281,100
" India 195,762
Of these South Africa took two-fifths of the total exports.
_Haberdashery and Millinery._
To Australia £341,241
" South Africa 310,372
" India 142,341
" New Zealand 137,080
" Canada 125,401
Of these South Africa took one-fifth of the total exports.
_Mining Machinery._
To Australia £129,704
" South Africa 108,365
" India 74,714
" New Zealand 11,272
South Africa took one-fifth of the total mining machinery exports, but
had 1901 been a normal year, the exports would unquestionably have
exceeded those of all our other Colonies and India combined.
_Agricultural Machinery (excluding Engines)._
To Australia £30,829
" South Africa 26,833
" New Zealand 18,654
" India 14,294
_Manufactures of Steel, &c._
To India £268,377
" South Africa 108,187
" Australia 57,990
" New Zealand 20,189
_Locomotives._
To India £535,115
" Australia 311,616
" South Africa 281,158
" New Zealand 38,712
_Unenumerated Engines._
To India £274,257
" Australia 232,563
" South Africa 128,786
_Cast and Wrought Iron._
To India £848,857
" Australia 746,155
" South Africa 599,018
" New Zealand 202,451
" Canada 53,212
_Galvanized Sheets._
To Australia £730,952
" India 586,023
" South Africa 358,353
" New Zealand 125,828
" Canada 113,015
This brief digest will doubtless be sufficient to prove that South
Africa, as a market, is to-day one of the best customers of the
Motherland, and, as will be shown later, when dealing with the future
outlook for Imperial trade with that country, bids fair to speedily
overtop in her demands upon the United Kingdom and her Colonies and
dependencies that of any single member of the Imperial family, India--of
all our possessions at present our best customer--not even excepted. And
what will readily be conceded is a satisfactory feature in our
commercial relations with South Africa is the remarkable growth which
has characterised the exports thither from British possessions and
Protectorates other than the Mother Country itself, the total proportion
in 1901 being £4,733,800, as against £4,590,681, the value of the
combined trade with South Africa in that year of Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, France, Germany, Holland, Switzerland, and the United States.
Why South Africa must, for many years to come, remain our best customer,
ever increasing its demands upon our industries, is not difficult of
comprehension to those who are acquainted with its circumstances.
Although it is more than capable in proper hands and with the assistance
of capital of being self-supporting, beyond its gold, diamonds, and
coal, it produces little or nothing to speak of. It has one of the
finest climates in the world; its soil is more than ordinarily fertile,
and only requires water to yield a harvest more than sufficient for its
consumptive needs, which could easily be obtained if the ample rainfall
were properly conserved and irrigation resorted to on an intelligent
principle. Incredible as it may seem, even the mealies or maize, which
it could grow in sufficient quantity, without recourse to irrigation, to
supply its own wants and leave a margin for export, are imported to the
amount of something like £350,000 annually. Its iron deposits are
probably unequalled elsewhere; its seas teem with fish, and its orchards
and vineyards groan with the yield which nature lavishes with but little
assistance from man. Yet on the shelves of every store throughout the
country will be found imported canned fish and fruit, mainly from
America; and while it is true that here and there jam factories are to
be found, and the sugar cane grows almost wild in Natal, probably more
than half a million yearly is disbursed on imported jams, confectionery,
syrups, and the like. Tea likewise flourishes in Natal, but South Africa
imports nearly £200,000 worth yearly; fresh and preserved vegetables, to
its shame, are actually landed to the value of £80,000 annually,
although, like most other foodstuffs, the soil grows them in luxuriant
profusion; and of wine, despite the fact that the huge quantities made
at the Cape, if properly treated according to European methods, would be
unsurpassed in the world, the oversea product stands for nearly
£300,000.
Moreover, as a cattle country many parts of South Africa are probably
unrivalled, notwithstanding which both live and dead stock are freely
imported, and while it could support millions of sheep it prefers the
frozen mutton of New Zealand and the Argentine. Whoever is to blame for
this state of things, which, happily, under the new _regime_ and with
the influx of population from European countries will gradually be
altered, it is certain that, until the old order changes (and this will
probably be a work of decades), South Africa must rely upon oversea
goods for the maintenance of its growing population, as also for the
means wherewith to extract its marvellous mineral wealth. According to
Mr. W. Willcocks, C.M.G., if the irrigation schemes which are projected
in the Transvaal and Orange River Colonies are ever carried into effect,
they will add something like £200,000,000 to the value of the
agricultural land, a consummation which, in its own interests as well as
for our own industries, is devoutly to be wished. If it be true, as is
repeatedly asserted by those most competent to judge, that South
Africa's vast mineral deposits have only been "scratched," how much more
does this remark apply to its agriculture, which, after all, is the
staple wealth of all countries, and which has made the United States and
Canada what they are to-day?
Enough has probably been said of the South African trade of the past and
present, although the subject is of such profound interest to the
student that it deserves greater space than is possible within the scope
of a single article. It is to the future that we have now to direct our
attention, and it is in attempting to forecast the probable trend of the
trade in the years to come that speculation becomes positively
fascinating. In making this endeavour, it is well to bear in mind that
assumption will be based upon such facts as are within our common
knowledge, and therefore may be accepted as a reliable, although not
infallible, guide as to what may safely be expected of South African
commerce in the future. Setting aside for the moment the possibility of
the soil being made to yield any greater abundance than is now the case,
or that other than its existing insignificant industries will be
promoted or developed, we will first of all confine our investigations
to how far South Africa's mineral wealth will beneficially affect trade
pure and simple. Altogether, irrespective of the Cape, Natal, Rhodesia,
and the Orange River Colony, the mining, exploration, and investment
companies at present in existence in the Transvaal alone, or connected
therewith, number something like 350, representing a capital of
£250,000,000, or about what the war has cost us. Many attempts have been
made by competent experts in the past to forecast what the several
sections of the Witwatersrand only will yield in gold as interest on
this huge sum before the mines at present in working or in process of
being worked are exhausted, but few approximate with such exactitude the
recent estimates of Messrs. Frederick H. Hatch and T. H. Leggett, both
of whom are authorities whose views are entitled to the greatest
respect. They have had many years' practical experience of the Transvaal
mines, and owing to the uniformity of the yield, tested at a depth of
nearly 5000 feet, to which they limit themselves in their calculations,
they are of opinion that the gold yet to be extracted from Randfontein
on the west to Modderfontein on the east amounts to the almost
incalculable total of £1,310,323,000, and that the life of this section
is forty-two and a half years.
Now, as it is indisputable that South African trade is in the main
practically dependent upon the country's mineral wealth, it is not a
matter of supreme difficulty to arrive at some definite conclusion as to
what effect the extraction of this stupendous amount will have upon its
consumptive requirements. Herein lies its supreme significance to
manufacturers, and particularly to those who are our countrymen. The
experts cited are of opinion that by June 1906 the annual output of gold
from this section alone will amount to £30,000,000, which compares with
£20,000,000, the estimated yield for 1899, had not the war intervened.
According to figures taken from the reports issued by the Johannesburg
Chamber of Mines, something like 75 per cent. of the yearly output of
but seventy-four of the mining companies producing the £20,000,000
referred to has been spent in the past on machinery, stores,
development, labour, &c., which would mean a local disbursement alone of
£22,500,000 in 1906 to win the £30,000,000 estimated as the yield in
that year by Messrs. Hatch and Leggett. But, according to Mr. A. R.
Goldring, secretary to the Johannesburg Chamber of Mines, who bases his
data upon information supplied by the leading Rand engineering experts,
in 1907 no fewer than 17,000 head of stamps will be at work, being an
increase of 11,000 on the number in operation just previous to the
outbreak of the war. If the annual output of £20,000,000 involved the
expenditure of £15,000,000 on stores, machinery, wages, &c., Mr.
Goldring's estimate of the number of stamps that will be at work in 1907
means the disbursement of the gigantic sum of £42,500,000 as the total
contribution which the Rand gold industry alone will expend for the
benefit of the merchants and manufacturers of the Mother Country and the
world at large. If to this estimate be added the expenditure
necessitated by the numerous diamond and copper mines and collieries in
the Cape Colony, Orange River Colony, Natal, and the Transvaal, coupled
with that of the Rhodesian gold mines and collieries, as well as the
gold mines in districts other than the Witwatersrand, such as Barberton
and Zoutpansberg, &c., a reasonable estimate should place the total
disbursements of the entire mining industry in South Africa in, say,
five years at £50,000,000 sterling, which, added to the normal
requirements of the country apart from those of mining, would mean an
annual outlay of at least £60,000,000 for the benefit of commerce.
It will be seen that no allowance is here made for possible developments
in agriculture and kindred pursuits, which may not unreasonably be
expected to ensue as the result of the fostering care of the
administrations, under the Imperial Government, of the Transvaal and
Orange River Colonies, although large disbursements might with perfect
safety be placed to the credit of these and other industries which may
safely be assumed to be promoted during the interval between the present
and the year to which these estimates relate. That the Rand gold
industry can never be checked again, short of another war, which is
extremely improbable, is as certain as that the sun shines, and the same
remark applies to the other mineral propositions. It is therefore well
within the bounds of probability to predict that the total purchasing
capacity of South Africa five years hence will be at least £60,000,000
sterling per annum (which is an exceedingly moderate computation in view
of the fact that the estimated total in 1902 is £42,000,000), a sum
which, assuming our other colonies and possessions do not advance in the
same ratio, will make that country an easy first as Great Britain's best
market. If Messrs. Hatch and Leggett be correct in their surmise that
the life of the Rand is forty-two and a half years--and in the main they
are supported by other competent authorities--excluding altogether the
possibility of other discoveries of precious metals and minerals in that
long interval, and eliminating for the moment, what is improbable, that
the remainder of the three hundred and fifty mining and exploration
companies above referred to remain idle meantime, or that their number
is not hugely increased, we arrive at a total expenditure of _two
thousand five hundred and fifty millions sterling_ as South Africa's
contribution to trade in the period in question. As it would be futile
to dilate upon what this overwhelming sum means to British industries,
it must be left to the imagination. It is worth thinking about
nevertheless.
There is, however, always the pessimist to be considered in these
matters. While no doubt he will content himself with the satisfactory
outlook for British trade which is here unfolded, he may, in
anticipation of time, begin to worry himself as to what will happen when
the Rand is no more, and when its thousands of stamps are lying idle for
the want of further quartz to crush. If one cared or dared to venture
upon the hazardous ground of prophecy, one might easily foretell the
possibility of other Rands being discovered meanwhile, with the
practical certainty that a hundred years hence South Africa's gold
yield, instead of showing diminution, will largely exceed even present
anticipations; and here it is justifiable to intrude the remark that
every expert, without exception, who is connected with its gold
industry, is unanimous in asserting that mining has hardly been begun,
and that the future will exceed the expectations of even the most
optimistically inclined. But, granted that the pessimist be correct that
in fifty years the gold will cease to yield and the Rand be a barren,
silent waste, is it quite safe to conclude that meanwhile the country
has remained at a standstill except for its mining activities? Are the
£200,000,000 sterling which Mr. W. Willcocks, C.M.G., the distinguished
irrigation expert, asserts will add to the value of the country as
agricultural land if irrigation be resorted to, to be counted as
nothing; and is there not the remote possibility of South Africa taking
its natural place among the world's producers of other staples than
gold? What of its vast coal and iron deposits, its saltpetre, its
petroleum, and its countless other products which to-day are but waiting
the advent of capital to bring into being, all of which, like its gold,
have yet to astonish the world? Gold or no gold, the country must, as
the years unfold, become a teeming hive of industry, the only
approximation to which is that of the United States of America. South
Africa, then, is no place for the pessimist, and the sooner that is
understood, the greater the peace of mind of that misguided individual.
As to the trend of the gigantic trade that is before South Africa, it
has been incontestably shown that the proportion enjoyed by the Mother
Country, and that of its colonies and possessions, is immeasurably in
advance of that of all other nations combined, despite the ravings of
the alarmists as to the alleged incursions of our rivals on what are
pre-eminently our own domains. This fact must not, however, lull us into
the false security of our peaceful slumbers of twenty, or even ten,
years ago, when we had the field to ourselves, and which we might have
retained even now but for our ignorance of its potentialities. The
competition to be faced is a keen one; the trade is there and must
remain there, in all human probability, for all time, in increasing
quantity--for it can never retrograde; and only the alertness, the
unceasing activity of those who are interested in retaining it, will
preserve the major portion to our own industries. In endeavouring to
show that the future outlook for South African trade is one which our
manufacturers cannot possibly ignore, by reason of its incalculable
vastness, it is reasonable to suppose that each member of the Imperial
family, whether it be the Mother Country, its offsprings, or the
humblest citizen of either, will strain every nerve to conserve to it
the spoils for which such sacrifices in blood and treasure have been
made, thus handing down to our children a heritage of wealth which is
their right equally as it is our duty.