The progress of the confidential negotiations which have for some
time past been in progress between Her Majesty's Government and the
Government of Russia make it probable that those Articles of the
Treaty of San Stefano which concern European Turkey will be
sufficiently modified to bring them into harmony with the interests
of the other European Powers, and of England in particular.
There is, however, no such prospect with respect to that portion of
the Treaty which concerns Turkey in Asia. It is sufficiently
manifest that, in respect to Batoum and the fortresses north of the
Araxes, the Government of Russia is not prepared to recede from the
stipulations to which the Porte has been led by the events of the
war to consent. Her Majesty's Government have consequently been
forced to consider the effect which these agreements, if they are
neither annulled nor counteracted, will have upon the future of the
Asiatic provinces of the Ottoman Empire and upon the interests of
England, which are closely affected by the condition of those
provinces.
It is impossible that Her Majesty's Government can look upon these
changes with indifference. Asiatic Turkey contains populations of
many different races and creeds, possessing no capacity for
self-government[34] and no aspirations for independence, but owing
their tranquillity and whatever prospect of political well-being
they possess entirely to the rule of the Sultan. But the Government
of the Ottoman Dynasty is that of an ancient but still alien
conqueror, resting more upon actual power than upon the sympathies
of common nationality. The defeat which the Turkish arms have
sustained and the known embarrassments of the Government will
produce a general belief in its decadence and an expectation of
speedy political change, which in the East are more dangerous than
actual discontent to the stability of a Government. If the
population of Syria, Asia Minor, and Mesopotamia see that the Porte
has no guarantee for its continued existence but its own strength,
they will, after the evidence which recent events have furnished of
the frailty of that reliance, begin to calculate upon the speedy
fall of the Ottoman domination, and to turn their eyes towards its
successor.
Even if it be certain that Batoum and Ardahan and Kars will not
become the base from which emissaries of intrigue will issue forth,
to be in due time followed by invading armies, the mere retention
of them by Russia will exercise a powerful influence in
disintegrating the Asiatic dominion of the Porte. As a monument of
feeble defence on the one side, and successful aggression on the
other, they will be regarded by the Asiatic population as
foreboding the course of political history in the immediate future,
and will stimulate, by the combined action of hope and fear,
devotion to the Power which is in the ascendant, and desertion of
the Power which is thought to be falling into decay.
It is impossible for Her Majesty's Government to accept, without
making an effort to avert it, the effect which such a state of
feeling would produce upon regions whose political condition deeply
concerns the Oriental interests of Great Britain. They do not
propose to attempt the accomplishment of this object by taking
military measures for the purpose of replacing the conquered
districts in the possession of the Porte. Such an undertaking would
be arduous and costly, and would involve great calamities, and it
would not be effective for the object which Her Majesty's
Government have in view, unless subsequently strengthened by
precautions which can be taken almost as effectually without
incurring the miseries of a preliminary war. The only provision
which can furnish a substantial security for the stability of
Ottoman rule in Asiatic Turkey, and which would be as essential
after the re-conquest of the Russian annexations as it is now, is
an engagement on the part of a Power strong enough to fulfil it,
that any further encroachments by Russia upon Turkish territory in
Asia will be prevented by force of arms. Such an undertaking, if
given fully and unreservedly, will prevent the occurrence of the
contingency which would bring it into operation, and will, at the
same time, give to the populations of the Asiatic provinces the
requisite confidence that Turkish rule in Asia is not destined to a
speedy fall.
There are, however, two conditions which it would be necessary for
the Porte to subscribe before England could give such assurance.
Her Majesty's Government intimated to the Porte, on the occasion of
the Conference at Constantinople, that they were not prepared to
sanction misgovernment and oppression, and it will be requisite,
before they can enter into any agreement for the defence of the
Asiatic territories of the Porte in certain eventualities, that
they should be formally assured of the intention of the Porte to
introduce the necessary reforms into the government of the
Christian and other subjects of the Porte in these regions. It is
not desirable to require more than an engagement in general terms;
for the specific measures to be taken could only be defined after a
more careful inquiry and deliberation than could be secured at the
present juncture.
It is not impossible that a careful selection and a faithful
support of the individual officers to whom power is to be entrusted
in those countries would be a more important element in the
improvement of the condition of the people than even legislative
changes; but the assurances required to give England a right to
insist on satisfactory arrangements for these purposes will be an
indispensable part of any agreement to which Her Majesty's
Government could consent. It will further be necessary, in order to
enable Her Majesty's Government efficiently to execute the
engagements now proposed, that they should occupy a position near
the coast of Asia Minor and Syria. The proximity of British
officers, and, if necessary, British troops, will be the best
security that all the objects of this agreement shall be attained.
The Island of Cyprus appears to them to be in all respects the most
available for this object. Her Majesty's Government do not wish to
ask the Sultan to alienate territory from his sovereignty or to
diminish the receipts which now pass into his Treasury. They will,
therefore, propose that, while the administration and occupation of
the island shall be assigned to Her Majesty, the territory shall
still continue to be part of the Ottoman Empire, and that the
excess of the revenue over the expenditure, whatever it at present
may be, shall be paid over annually by the British Government to
the Treasury of the Sultan.
Inasmuch as the whole of this proposal is due to the annexations
which Russia has made in Asiatic Turkey, and the consequences which
it is apprehended will flow therefrom, it must be fully understood
that, if the cause of the danger should cease, the precautionary
agreement will cease at the same time. If the Government of Russia
should at any time surrender to the Porte the territory it has
acquired in Asia by the recent war, the stipulations in the
proposed agreements will cease to operate, and the island will be
immediately evacuated.
I request, therefore, your Excellency to propose to the Porte to
agree to a Convention to the following effect, and I have to convey
to you full authority to conclude the same on behalf of the Queen
and of Her Majesty's Government--
"If Batoum, Ardahan, Kars, or any of them shall be retained by
Russia, and if any attempt shall be made at any future time by
Russia to take possession of any further portion of the Asiatic
territories of the Sultan, as fixed by the definitive Treaty of
Peace, England engages to join the Sultan in defending them by
force of arms. In return, the Sultan promises to England to
introduce necessary reforms (to be agreed upon later between the
two Powers) into the government of the Christian and other subjects
of the Porte in these territories; and, in order to enable England
to make necessary provision for executing her engagement the Sultan
further consents to assign the Island of Cyprus to be occupied and
administered by England."
I am, etc.,
(Signed) SALISBURY.