13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
18 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
19 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
20 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2
21 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3
22 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3
23 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.5
24 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.5
25 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.6
26 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.6
27 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.7
28 0.6 0.3 1.8 0.8
29 0.7 0.4 2.1 0.9
30 0.8 0.4 2.3 1.1
31 0.9 0.4 2.7 1.1
32 1.0 0.5 3.0 1.2
33 1.1 0.5 3.3 1.3
34 1.1 0.6 3.5 1.4
35 1.2 0.6 3.7 1.5
36 1.3 0.6 4.0 1.6
37 1.3 0.7 4.2 1.7
38 1.4 0.7 4.4 1.7
39 1.4 0.7 4.6 1.8
40 1.5 0.8 4.7 1.8
41 1.5 0.8 4.9 1.9
42 1.6 0.8 4.9 1.9
43 1.6 0.8 5.1 1.9
44 1.6 0.8 5.2 1.9
45 1.6 0.8 5.3 1.9
46 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.0
47 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.1
48 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.1
49 1.7 0.8 5.5 2.1
50 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
51 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
52 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.1
53 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
54 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
55 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
56 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
57 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.2
58 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
59 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
60 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.2
61 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
62 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
63 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
64 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
65 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
66 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
67 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
68 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
69 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
70 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
71 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
72 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
73 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
74 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
75 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2001, the chances of going to prison were highest among black males
(32.2%)and Hispanic males (17.2%) and lowest among white males (5.9%).
The lifetime chances of going to prison among black females (5.6%) were
nearly as high as for white males. Hispanic females (2.2%) and white
females (0.9%) had much lower chances of going to prison.
As a result of changes in first incarceration and mortality rates
between 1974 and 2001, black males experienced a greater increase in
the chances of going to prison over the course of a lifetime than any
other group (from 13.4% in 1974 to 32.2% in 2001). Hispanic males
experienced the second largest increase (from 4.0% in 1974 to 17.2% in
2001). White males experienced a smaller increase (from 2.2% in 1974 to
5.9% in 2001).
The lifetime chances of going to prison increased more rapidly for
black females (from 1.1% in 1974 to 5.6% in 2001) than for white males.
Hispanic females (from 0.4% in 1974 to 2.2% in 2001) and white females
(from 0.2% in 1974 to 0.9% in 2001) had smaller increases in their
lifetime chances of going to prison.
At every age men have higher chances of going to prison than women, and
blacks and Hispanics have higher chances than whites. Based on current
rates of first incarceration, an estimated 6.7% of black males will
enter State or Federal prison by the time they are age 20, compared to
3.0% of Hispanic males and 0.8% of white males.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
+Methodology+
_Life table techniques_
Life table techniques previously used to illustrate the implications of
prevailing incarceration rates in 1991 have been extended to model the
incarceration experience of actual generations of U.S. residents. (See
Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092,
March 1997.) These generation life tables provide the data needed to
estimate the number of living persons who have ever been incarcerated.
A generation life table traces a birth cohort of 100,000 persons
through their entire lives, subjecting them to the observed
age-specific mortality and incarceration rates which they encountered
in each subsequent calendar year of life. The procedure is known as a
double-decrement life table because there are two forms of exit from
the initial 100,000 birth cohort. The procedure yields estimates of the
number of persons in the birth cohort who are incarcerated for the
first time each year or who die.
At each year of age, the estimated number of living persons ever
incarcerated is equal to the number of persons identified as a prisoner
for the first time that year plus the number of surviving members of
the birth cohort who were prisoners in prior years. The age-specific
prevalence rate for members of the birth cohort is obtained by dividing
the surviving number of persons ever incarcerated by the number of
members of the 100,000 birth cohort who have survived to the current
age (including both those never incarcerated and those ever
incarcerated).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
+Appendix table 1. Calculating the number of persons ever
incarcerated in State or Federal prison, 2001+