13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
17 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
18 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
19 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8
20 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1
21 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5
22 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8
23 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.1
24 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.4
25 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.6
26 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.9
27 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.1
28 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.4
29 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.6
30 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.9
31 1.5 2.2 3.5 4.1
32 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.3
33 1.5 2.4 3.7 4.5
34 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.7
35 1.6 2.5 4.0 4.9
36 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1
37 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.2
38 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.4
39 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.5
40 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.6
41 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.7
42 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.8
43 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.9
44 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.0
45 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
46 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.1
47 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
48 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.2
49 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.2
50 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.3
51 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.3
52 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.4
53 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
54 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
55 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
56 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.4
57 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
58 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
59 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.5
60 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
61 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
62 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
63 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
64 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5
65 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.6
66 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.6
67 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
68 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
69 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
70 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
71 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
72 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
73 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
74 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
75 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6
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Unlike the yearend 2001 prevalence rate of 2.7%, which represents the
cumulative result of the past incarceration experiences of the living
adult population, the lifetime likelihood is a hypothetical projection
of the future if a birth cohort were to experience a fixed set of rates
of first incarceration and mortality over a lifetime.
Between 1974 and 2001, the lifetime chances of going to State or
Federal prison for U.S. residents overall in- creased from 1.9% to
6.6%. Each estimate summarized the effects of first incarceration and
mortality during a 12-month period in 1974, 1986, 1991, and 2001. The
estimates do not take into account changes in rates of first
incarceration or mortality that occur after the "birth" of the
hypothetical cohort. As a result of steadily rising rates of first
incarceration from 1974 to 2001, the lifetime chances of going to
prison for persons born in 1974 will be higher than 1.9%. Based on
rates of first incarceration through 2001, an estimated 2.6% of persons
born in 1975 had already been incarcerated by age 25.
+6 times higher lifetime chance of going to prison in 2001 for men than
for women+
Based on rates of first incarceration in 2001, the lifetime chances for
men of going to prison are 6 times greater than those for women (table
9). A male has a 11.3% (or 1 in 9) chance in his life-time of going to
prison, while a female has a 1.8% (or 1 in 56) chance. An estimated
9.6% of men and 1.5% of women are expected to go to prison by age 40,
as first incarceration rates riserapidly, then decline with advancing
age (figures 4 and 5).
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+Table 9. Lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison for
the first time, by gender, race, and Hispanic orign, 1974-2001+
Percent of resident population expected to go to
State or Federal prison for the first time, by
year--
1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001
Gender
Male 3.6% 4.1% 6.0% 9.1% 10.6% 11.3%
Female 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8
Race/Hispanic origin
White* 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1 3.4%
Male 2.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.4 5.9
Female 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9
Black* 7.0% 7.2% 9.3% 16.5% 17.7 18.6%
Male 13.4 13.4 17.4 29.4 31.0 32.2
Female 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.6 4.9 5.6
Hispanic 2.2% 3.3% 6.2% 9.5% 10.5 10.0%
Male 4.0 6.0 11.1 16.3 18.0 17.2
Female 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2
Note: Percents represent the chances of being admitted to State or
Federal prison during a lifetime.
Estimates were obtained by applying age-specific first incarceration
and mortality rates for each group to a hypothetical population of
100,000 births. See _Methodology_.
*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.
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[Illustration: Figure 4: Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison]
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