2001 5,618,000 2.7%
2002 5,856,000 2.8
2003 6,095,000 2.8
2004 6,332,000 2.9
2005 6,568,000 3.0
2006 6,804,000 3.1
2007 7,040,000 3.1
2008 7,275,000 3.2
2009 7,511,000 3.3
2010 7,745,000 3.4
*Based on prevalence estimates for exact ages through 2001 and
projections for exact ages from 2002 through 2010. See
_Methodology_ for estimation procedures.
Projected adult
Year resident population
2001 210,207,901
2002 212,427,944
2003 214,688,268
2004 216,918,713
2005 219,144,044
2006 221,409,946
2007 223,754,193
2008 226,155,771
2009 228,520,785
2010 230,792,746
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+Lifetime likelihood estimates of going to prison differ from current
prevalence estimates+
The lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the
percentage of all persons in a birth cohort expected to go to prison
over the course of a lifetime. In contrast, the prevalence of ever
having gone to prison is an estimate of the percentage who have ever
gone to prison among just the surviving members of all birth cohorts
over a specific period.
Estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison project the
percentage of persons at birth expected to go to prison, if the entire
cohort were subject to a fixed set of rates of first admission to
prison and mortality over an entire lifetime. In calculating these
estimates, incarceration and mortality rates are fixed at the time of
"birth" of the cohort.
Standard life table techniques were used to prepare estimates of the
lifetime likelihood of going to prison based on rates of first
incarceration during a 12-month period derived from inmate surveys
conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997. (See Lifetime Likelihood
of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997, for a
description of previous estimates.)
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+6.6% of persons born in 2001 will go to prison, if current rates of
first incarceration remain unchanged+
If rates of first incarceration and mortality in 2001 remain unchanged,
nearly 1 in 15 persons born in 2001 (6.6%) will go to State or Federal
prison during their lifetime (figure 3).
[Illustration: Figure 3: Lifetime chances of going to prison]
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