Year
born 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
1910 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1915 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
1920 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1925 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1930 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 +1.7+
1935 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 +1.9 1.9+
1940 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 +2.1 2.1 2.1+
1945 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 +2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4+
1950 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 +2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9+
1955 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 +3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7+
1960 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.5 +4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5+
1965 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.7 +4.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4+
1970 0.9 2.2 3.4 +4.4 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0+
1975 1.1 2.6 +3.9 4.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5+
1980 1.2 +2.7 4.0 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6+
Note: Based on constant age-specific first incarceration rates after
2001 (bolded type--indicated with plus (+) signs).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Among persons born after 1935, the effects of rising first
incarceration rates occurred at increasingly younger ages. Persons born
in 1955 were the first to record higher prevalence rates at all ages,
compared to persons born in prior years. At age 45 the percent ever
having been in prison reached 3.2% for persons born in 1955 -- more
than double the percent at that age among persons born in 1930 or
earlier.
The greatest rise occurred in the percents having been incarcerated
among the most recent cohorts. For persons born in 1975, 2.6% had been
to prison by age 25, nearly equal to the percent among persons born in
1950 who had been to prison by age 50 (2.7%).
Projections for years after 2001 indicate the percent ever incarcerated
will rise at an accelerated pace. If rates of first incarceration
remain at 2001 levels, 5.4% of persons born in 1965 are expected to
have gone to prison by age 75, more than three times the 1.7% of
persons born in 1930.
The projected rise in the percent ever incarcerated slows among persons
in later cohorts. Of those born in 1970, 6.0% are expected to have
been in prison by age 75, compared to 6.5% of those born in 1975, and
6.6% of those born in 1980.
+3.4% of adults projected to have served time in prison by 2010+
The prevalence of having been to prison will rise among the U.S. adult
population as more birth cohorts experience the full impact of current
levels of first incarceration. Assuming that current age-specific rates
of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, the number of adults
having ever served time in prison is projected to rise to 7.7 million
by 2010. A total of 3.4% of the adult population (1 in 29 persons age
18 or older) is expected to have served time in prison.
----------------------------------------------------------------------