WHEN THE KAISER THOUGHT WE WERE BLUFFING
_An Unpublished Diary_
Kaiserdom is an institution with which the American people are
really unacquainted--a complex institution the parallel of which
does not exist elsewhere. How it sought to play double with the
United States is in a general way familiar to Americans, but I
think the record of what happened in the eighteen months
preceding our break with Germany will illustrate exactly the
currents and cross-currents of official opinion which led the
United States to be scrupulously cautious in its course before
entering the war. As I talked with the Emperor or the Chancellor
or the Foreign Minister, I jotted down from time to time notes of
their conversation as well as brief summaries of the information
available to me from other sources. Naturally I cabled to the
Department of State the most significant news, but much of this
was not published because our Government was proceeding
cautiously and did not wish to be embarrassed by publicity of its
negotiations. There is every reason now, however, why the facts
should be known. I am reproducing here the diary I kept from
June, 1915, to the end of January, 1917, when unrestricted
submarine warfare was resumed and our break with Germany came. I
did not have the idea then of ever publishing my memoranda, so my
comments were written without restraint. They show, I am sure,
what the general trend of sentiment was in Germany for and
against submarine warfare and disclose, too, that while the
Emperor was often in the background and seemingly not the most
powerful factor in the situation, it was his system that
dominated Germany, his spirit that bred the lust for military
gain at whatever cost--even the respect of the whole civilised
world. Here are the notes as I penned them at the time:
* * * * *
_June, 1915._ Lincoln never passed through a crisis greater than
that with which the President is contending. He is fighting,
first, for humanity and some decency in war, and, second,
determining whether a European Emperor shall or shall not dictate
the political attitude of certain of our citizens.
It is regrettable to be compelled to think that the German nation
knows no treaty or law except the limit of its own desires.
We are still awaiting the second _Lusitania_ note and I fear that
Germany will never consent to abandon its present hideous method
of submarine war. It is extraordinary to hear Germans of all
classes extoll mere brute force as the only rule of international
life. It is a warning to us to create and increase our fleet and
coast defences.
The Germans not only do not fear war with us, but state frankly
they do not believe we dare to declare it, call us cowardly
bluffers and say our notes are worse than waste paper. Breaking
diplomatic relations means nothing.
Von Wiegand, the newspaper correspondent, is just back from
Przemysl and says the Russians were defeated by woful lack of
artillery and ammunition. Their power for offence is broken for
many months. From the West I hear the French are rather
discouraged.
Germany has ample food and gets all copper, etc., necessary for
war purposes through Sweden in exchange for potash and other
commodities.
An officer of the war ministry, who comes to see me about
prisoners, etc., told me last night that because the French have
kept several hundred Germans as prisoners in Dahomey and other
places in Africa, fifteen thousand French prisoners will be sent
to work in the unhealthy swamps of Holstein. I have cabled the
State Department often about this Dahomey business, transmitting
the request of Germany that these prisoners be sent to Europe.
Germans cannot be beaten on reprisals.
* * * * *
Two or three German-Americans have attacked the President,
Secretary Bryan and our Government, some publicly. I have ordered
their passports taken away and hope to be sustained. To permit
them to continue poisoning the atmosphere would be taken as a
sign of weakness here. No one who abuses his own country, its
government or its Chief is entitled to protection from that
country.
We have the visiting of British prisoners in good shape now, that
prohibition put on our visiting and inspecting the camps was
abolished in March by the "treaty" I arranged between England and
Germany. It was not until March twenty-ninth that we finally got
passes to visit camps under the "treaty." The prisoners say they
are badly treated when they are first captured, but we know only
of their treatment in the camps.
I do not believe all the atrocity stories; but one of our
servants in this house came back from the East front recently and
said the orders were to kill all Cossacks. Our washerwoman
reports that her son was ordered to shoot a woman in Belgium and
I myself have heard an officer calmly describe the shooting of a
seven-year-old Belgian girl child, the excuse being that she had
tried to fire at an officer.
If the _Lusitania_ business settles down, I hope the suggestion
made to me by the authorities here and cabled to the State
Department, will be carried into effect. This was that each
American and Spanish Ambassador, having charge of prisoners in
belligerent countries, should meet in Switzerland and discuss the
whole prison situation. Each Ambassador would be accompanied by
representatives of whatever authorities deal with prisoners (here
the War Ministry) in the country to which he is accredited. To
prevent unseemly discussions the actual talking would be done by
the Ambassadors (coached by those representatives). In addition
to doing away with many misunderstandings and helping the
prisoners, there are great possibilities in such a meeting. We
could all give each other useful "tips" on the caring for
prisoners, inspections, camps, package delivery, mail, etc.
There is plenty of food in Germany now and enough raw materials
to carry on the war. Raw materials for peaceful industries are
needed.
A suggestion--why not start a great government chemical school or
give protection for a certain number of years to dyestuffs,
medicine, chemical, and cyanide material? All these industries
are run here by the trustiest trusts that ever trusted, and by
their methods keep American manufacturers from starting the
business. A Congressman represents one of the best firms, hence
his statements that it is impossible to start such manufactures
in America. Our annual tribute to these trusts is enormous. One
dyestuff company here employs over five hundred chemists. Only
big or protected business can compete. This war has shown that we
should not be dependent on other countries for so many manufactures.
* * * * *
Gifts from America within the last week have been refused in
Saxony.
* * * * *
I fear that Germany will not give up its present method of
submarine war. Each month new and more powerful submarines are
added.
* * * * *
Perhaps it is worth a war to have it decided that the United
States of America is not to be run from Berlin.
Germans in authority feel that our "New Freedom" is against their
ideas and ideals. They hate President Wilson because he embodies
peace and learning rather than war.
* * * * *
In regard to prisoners, Mr. Harte reports prisoners in Russia and
Siberia better treated than was reported.
* * * * *
I hear for the first time of growing dissatisfaction among the
plain people, especially at the great rise in food prices.
Germany is getting everything she wants, however, through Sweden,
including copper, lard, etc. Von Tirpitz and his Press Bureau
were too much for the Chancellor; the latter is not a good
fighter. Zimmermann, if left to himself, would, of course, have
stopped this submarine murder.
I hope the President never gives in on the embargo on arms; if he
ever gives in on that, we might as well hoist the German Eagle on
the Capitol.
* * * * *
_July, 1915._ I think that the firm tone of the President's note
(of June 9, 1915) will make the Germans climb down. There seems a
general disposition to be pleased with the note and an expectation
that matters can be arranged. The great danger is that the
Germans may again get the idea that we do not dare to declare
war. In such case they will again become difficult to handle.
Zimmermann and von Jagow are both quite pleased with the tone of
the note.
They both talk now of keeping Belgium, the excuse being that the
Belgians hate the Germans so that if Belgium again became
independent it would be only an English outpost. Meyer Gerhard,
Bernstorff's special envoy, has arrived and has broken into print
over the sentiment in America. I am afraid he makes it too
peaceful, and, therefore, the Germans will be encouraged to
despise America.
While the authorities here think the idea of freedom of the seas
good, they think the idea of freedom of land too vague. They want
to know exactly what it means and say the seas should be free
because they belong to no one, but that land is the private
property of various nations. They compare the situation to a city
street, where every one is interested in keeping the streets free
but would resent a proposal that private houses also should be
made common meeting ground if not common property. Unfortunately
for Germany and the world, the German armies are winning and this
will be considered a complete vindication of the military and
caste system and everything which now exists. As Cleveland said,
we are confronted by a condition, not a theory. _Germany, unless
beaten, will never directly or indirectly agree to any freedom of
land or disarmament proposal._
* * * * *
The Emperor probably will see me soon. He has been rabid on the
export of arms from the United States to the Allies, but like all
Germans, when they see we cannot be scared into a change of
policy, he is making a nice recovery.
Was told by a friend at the Foreign Office that the German note
would contain a proposition that regular passenger ships should
not be torpedoed without notice, but must carry no cargo other
than passengers' baggage. Have heard Marine Department rather
opposes this, but may favor proposition as to ships inspected and
certified to carry no arms or ammunition. No note until after
July fourth, they say at Foreign Office, on tip from Washington.
(Note--German note was delivered to me July 8, 1915.)
* * * * *
Chancellor and von Jagow have been in Vienna, probably over
Balkan question. The situation there hinges on Bulgaria. Germany
wants a direct strip of territory for itself or Austria to
Constantinople. Thirteen million pounds in gold sent recently by
Germany to Turkey to keep the boys in line. Principal Socialist
paper, the _Vorwaerts_, has been suppressed because it spoke of
peace; reason given is that this kind of talk would encourage
enemies of Germany.
* * * * *
The Germans are becoming more strict, even women now entering
Germany must strip to the skin and take down their back hair. The
wife of Hearst's correspondent here had to submit to this the
other day.
* * * * *
At first, newspaper correspondents had to promise they would not
go to enemy territory, next that they would not go to neutral
territory (after one correspondent went to Denmark and sent out
dispatches about the movement against annexing Belgium). Now the
correspondents must promise not to go home. This is to keep
secret the internal conditions. The women stormed a butter shop
here the other day and our Consul reports, in Chemnitz, quite a
serious food riot. The military were called out and the fire
department turned hose on the crowd.
* * * * *
In Austria, I hear men up to fifty-five are being called to the
colours and even the infirm taken for the army. There are said to
be seven German and five Austrian army corps invading Servia. The
losses of the invaders are reported to be heavy. To date, the
German dead in this war number about seven hundred thousand.
People who offered private hospitals at the beginning of the war
and who were told these were not needed, have been requested to
open them. I was told the remaining civil population of Vouziers,
France (in German hands), had been removed to make room for
German wounded.
* * * * *
The note of July 21, 1915, in which the President said he would
regard the sinking of ships without warning as "deliberately
unfriendly," is received with hostility by press and Government.
Of course, the party of frightfulness has conquered those of
milder views, owing largely to the aggressive newspaper campaign
conducted by von Tirpitz, Reventlow and Company. The Germans
generally are, at present, in rather a waiting attitude, perhaps
anxious to see what our attitude toward England will be--but this
will not affect their submarine policy. The Foreign Office now
claims, I hear, that I am hostile to Germany, but that claim was
to be expected. Of course, I had no more to do with the American
note than they did, but it is impossible to convince them of
that, so I shall not try.
* * * * *
Germany has the Balkan situation well in hand. Roumania can do
nothing in the face of recent Russian defeats and has just
consented to allow grain to be exported to Austria and Germany,
but has, I think, not yet consented to allow the passage of
ammunition to Turkey. The pressure, however, is great. If not
successful, perhaps German troops will invade Servia so as to get
a passage through to Turkey.
A minister from one of the Balkan States told me the situation of
Roumania, Greece and Bulgaria was about the same, each state can
last in war only about three months, so all are trying to gauge
three months before the end and then come in on the winning side.
The Bulgarian Minister of the Public Debt got in here by mistake
the other day, insisting he had an appointment; he _had_ an
appointment with the Treasurer, Helfferich, whose office is
nearby. This shows, perhaps, that Bulgaria is getting money here.
Also the Germans are sending back to Russia, Russians of
revolutionary tendencies, who were prisoners here, with money
and passports in order that they may stir up trouble at home.
The Germans are making a great effort to take Warsaw, even old
Landsturm men are in the fighting line; I think they will get it,
and then they hope to turn two million men and strike a great
blow in France--thus they expect to end the war by October.
* * * * *
I notice now a slight reaction from annexation toward giving up
all or part of Belgium; but I must say I hear very little of
popular dissatisfaction with the war. Everything seems to be
going smoothly; but they are scraping the bottom of the box on
getting men for the army.
* * * * *
It is not pleasant to be hated by so many millions. The Germans
naturally make me the object of their concentrated hate. I
received an anonymous letter in which the kindly writer rejoices
that so many Americans were drowned in the Chicago disaster. This
shows the state of mind.
* * * * *
The Emperor is at the front, "Somewhere in Galicia." They keep
him very much in the background, I think, with the idea of
disabusing the popular mind of the idea that this is "his war."
After all, accidents may happen, and even after a victorious war
there may be a day of reckoning. The Chancellor went to the front
yesterday, probably to see the Emperor about the American
question.
* * * * *
_August, 1915._ I had a conversation last week of one hour and a
half with the Chancellor. He sent for me because I had written
him to take no more trouble about my seeing the Emperor. He
explained, of course, first that he did not know I wanted to see
the Emperor, and second that it was impossible to see the
Emperor. They keep the Emperor well surrounded. _Now_ I do not
want to see him. He is hot against Americans and the matters I
wanted to talk of are all settled--one way. I cabled an
interesting report on the Emperor's conversation re America.
The Chancellor is still wrong in his head; says it was necessary
to invade Belgium, break all international laws, etc. I think,
however, that he was personally against the fierce Dernburg
propaganda in America. I judge that von Tirpitz, through his
press bureau, has egged on the people so that this submarine war
will continue. _An official confessed to me that they had tried
to get England to interfere, together with them, in Mexico, and
Germans "Gott strafe" the Monroe Doctrine in their daily prayers
of hate._
* * * * *
Warsaw, as I predicted officially, long ago, will soon fall.
* * * * *
No great news--we are simply waiting for the inevitable submarine
"accident."
Unless there is a change of sentiment in the Government I think
the submarine commanders will be careful.
The Chancellor talked rather freely but again said it was
impossible to leave Belgium to become an outpost of the English,
but possibly with Germans in possession of the forts, the
railways and with commercial rights in Antwerp it might be
arranged.
There is a faction here led by deputy Bassermann, Stresemann,
Fahrmann, etc., who are attacking the Chancellor. They represent
great industrials who want to annex Belgium, Northern France,
Poland and anything else that can be had, for their own ultimate
advantage. A man named Hirsch is hired by the Krupp firm to
"accelerate" this work. Krupps also pay the expenses of the
"Oversea Service" which is feeding news to America.
A paper against annexation of Belgium has been signed, I am told,
by Dernburg, Prince Hatzfeld and others, and will be presented to
the Chancellor to-day. I believe many are to sign it; but of
those who have signed are Hatzfeld, who is one of the three big
Dukes of Prussia; Prince Henckel-Donnersmarck, who is the second
richest subject in Germany--(85 years old, he was in 1870 first
Governor of Lorraine)--von Harrach, who is a man of great
ability, highly respected, as is also Professor Delbrück.
* * * * *
The Reichstag meets in a few days. The Socialists are holding
daily caucuses, but have not yet decided on any party action.
Undoubtedly they will vote for the new ten milliard loan, with
Liebknecht and a few others dissenting. Probably a split will
also develop in the National Liberal Party; Bassermann and others
have been attacking the Chancellor, but I think other members
will dissent. It is quite probable that there will be a
discussion about the _object_ of the war, and permission will be
asked for public discussion, the Socialists perhaps claiming that
they have consented to a defensive war only, and that now that
the war is on enemy territory peace should be at least discussed.
There may also be talk about the annexation of Belgium and food
prices. The Socialists are greatly incensed at those who are
holding food for high prices.
* * * * *
Personally, I think that Germany now wants peace but does not
want to say so openly.
A relative of a Field Marshal told me to-day that Germany's
killed to date were 600,000 and 200,000 crippled for life.
I must say that the plain people still seem perfectly tame and
ready to continue the war. However, there may also be a protest
in the Reichstag about the treatment by non-commissioned officers
of Landsturm men who have never served but who now, in the
process of scraping the box, are called to the colors.
The Germans hope by a great movement to capture a great part of
the Russian army; probably they will fail. They also entertain
hopes that in such case Sweden will enter Finland and two Balkan
States declare for them. Balkan Ministers here tell me the defeat
of Russia makes it impossible for Roumania to enter, but they
fear an invasion by the Germans. All diplomatic work is now
centred in the Balkans.
* * * * *
Successes in Russia have made the people here very cocky. Hence,
probably, the torpedoing of the _Arabic_. Also great hope of
Bulgaria coming in with Germany; there is no more dissatisfaction
heard over the war. I have as yet received nothing from
Washington regarding the _Arabic_.
* * * * *
I have just spent four half days at Ruhleben, where civilian
Britishers are interned, so as to give every prisoner a chance to
speak to me personally.
* * * * *
There is much talk of creating an independent Poland. The
Reichstag session has developed no opposition.
A fac-simile of that infernal advertisement[A] of the Cleveland
Automatic Tool Company in the _American Machinist_ was laid on
the desk of every member of the Reichstag; and the papers are
full of accounts of great deliveries of war munitions by America,
possibly preparing people for a break. If Bulgaria comes in,
Germany will undoubtedly take a strip in Servia and keep a road
to Constantinople and the East. The new Turkish Ambassador has
just arrived. The old one was not friendly to Enver Bey and so
was bounced; he remains here, however, as he fears if he went to
Turkey he would get some "special" coffee. The hate for Americans
grows daily.
[Footnote A: This was an advertisement in an American newspaper
about machines for the manufacture of particularly deadly shells
and was much used in Germany to show how America was helping the
Entente.]
* * * * *
All rumours are that in the recent council at Posen the
Chancellor, advocating concessions in submarine war, won out over
von Tirpitz. But von Tirpitz will die hard, and there will be
trouble yet, as the Navy will be very angry if the present
methods are abandoned. Members of the Reichstag have telegraphed
backing up the Chancellor; but it is hard for any civilian idea
to prevail against Army or Navy.
Probably the Admiralty will say that the submarine which
torpedoed the _Arabic_ was lost, in order to avoid disgracing an
officer.
If the _Arabic_ question is not complicated with the _Lusitania_
a solution will be easier. The common people have been aroused by
von Tirpitz's press bureau and it will be simpler for the
Chancellor to "back track," taking as an example a case like the
_Arabic_ when the ship was going West and carried no ammunition.
* * * * *
The defeat of the Russians is undoubtedly crushing. Is England
waking up too late? There will be a big offensive soon against
the West lines.
* * * * *
I have heard nothing up to to-day from the State Department re
the _Arabic_, except one cable asking me to request a report.
A correspondent has just been in and says that the General Staff
people threaten to expel him because he went to Copenhagen and
sent out news about the petition to the Chancellor not to annex
Belgium. The Foreign Office had no objection; this shows how the
line is forming between the Chancellor and the Military. All
correspondents to-day say the Germans are trying to dragoon them
into sending only news which the General Staff wants sent, and
the Military have added their censorship to that of the Foreign
Office.
An official told me that Bernstorff, while not exactly exceeding
his instructions in his "_Arabic_ Note" (of Sept. 1, 1915), had
put the matter in a manner they did not approve.
* * * * *
Orders have now, apparently, been given to all German officials
to say that the war will last a long time--at least a year and a
half.
It is expected that Persia will come in under German leadership
and attack India.
* * * * *
Our Military Attaché, Colonel Kuhn, was finally presented to the
Kaiser and had a pleasant chat with him. Colonel Kuhn says all
fighting on the West is with artillery and hand grenades. Rifles
are thrown aside.
Germans have spies "piking off" our Embassies in Paris, London
and Petrograd.
Great airship attacks on London may be expected. In one of the
recent attacks nine thousand eight hundred bombs (fire and
explosive) were dropped. I get this from good authority.
Foreign Office quite elated over their Balkan triumph.
Personally, I think it was one of the most effective bits of
German "diplomacy" in the history of the Empire.