The measure which underlies all else is the ploughing up of permanent
grass--the reconversion of land which was once arable, the addition to
arable of land which has never been arable, so as to secure the only
possible basis of success--the wheat basis.
I have before me a Report on the Breaking up of Grass Land in fifty-five
counties for the winter of 1916-1917, which shows four successes for
every failure. The Report says: "It has been argued during the past few
months that it is hopeless to attempt to plough out old grass land in
the expectation of adding to the nation's food. The experience of 1917
does not support this contention. It shows not only that the successes
far outnumber the failures, but that the latter are to some extent
preventable."
The Government's 1918 tillage programme for England and Wales was to
increase (as compared with 1916), (1) the area under corn by 2,600,000
acres, (2) the area under potatoes and mangolds by 400,000 acres, (3)
the arable land by 2,000,000 acres. I have it on the best authority that
the Government hopes to better this in the forth-coming harvest. That
shows what our farmers can do with their backs to the wall. It sometimes
happens in this world that we act virtuously without in any way
believing that virtue is its own reward. Most of our farmers are hoeing
their rows in this crisis in the full belief that they are serving the
country to the hurt of their own interests; they will not, I imagine,
realise that they are laying the foundations of a future prosperity
beyond their happiest dreams until the crisis is long past. All the more
credit to them for a great effort. They by no means grasp at present the
fact that with every acre they add to arable, with each additional acre
of wheat, they increase their own importance and stability, and set the
snowball of permanent prosperity in their industry rolling anew. Pasture
was a policy adopted by men who felt defeat in their bones, saw
bankruptcy round every corner. Those who best know seem agreed that
after the war the price of wheat will not come down with a run. The
world shortage of food and shipping will be very great, and the "new
world's" surplus will be small. Let our farmers take their courage in
their hands, play a bold game, and back their own horse for the next
four or five seasons, and they will, _if supported by the country_, be
in a position once more to defy competition. Let them have faith and go
for the gloves and they will end by living without fear of the new
worlds. "There is a tide in the affairs of men." This is the British
farmer's tide, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. But only
if the British farmer intends that Britain shall feed herself; only if
he farms the land of Britain so that acre by acre it yields the maximum
of food. A hundred acres under potatoes feeds 420 persons; a hundred
acres under wheat feeds 200 persons; a hundred acres of grass feeds
fifteen persons. It requires no expert to see that the last is the
losing horse; for increase of arable means also increase of winter food,
and in the long run increase, not decrease, of live stock. In Denmark
(1912) arable was to permanent grass as about 4 to 5; in the United
Kingdom it was only as about 5 to 7. Yet in Denmark there were five
cattle to every eight acres of grass, and in the United Kingdom only
four cattle to every nine acres.
Let me quote Professor Biffen on the prospects of wheat: "In the United
States the amount exported tends to fall. The results are so marked that
we find American agricultural experts seriously considering the
possibility of the United States having to become a wheat importing
country in order to feed the rapidly growing population." When she does,
that wheat will come from Canada; and "there are several other facts
which lead one to question the statement so frequently made that Canada
will shortly be the Empire's granary...." He thinks that the Argentine
(which trebles her population every forty years) is an uncertain source;
that Russia, where the population also increases with extreme rapidity,
is still more uncertain; that neither India nor Australia are dependable
fields of supply. "The world's crop continues to increase slowly, and
concurrently the number of wheat consumers increases.... Prices have
tended to rise of late years, a fact which may indicate that the world's
consumption is increasing faster than its rate of production. There are
now no vast areas of land comparable with those of North and South
America awaiting the pioneer wheat growers, and consequently _there is
no likelihood of any repetition of the over-production characteristic of
the period of 1874-1894_....
"If as there is every reason to hope the problem of breeding
satisfactory strong wheats" (for this country) "has been solved, then
their cultivation should add about £1 to the value of the produce of
every acre of wheat in the country....
"At a rough estimate the careful use of artificials might increase the
average yield of the acre from four quarters up to five....
"England is one of the best, if not the very best wheat-growing country
in the world."
That, shortly, is the wheat position for this country in the view of our
most brilliant practical expert. I commend it to the notice of those who
are faint-hearted about the future of wheat in Britain.
With these prospects and possibilities before him, _and a fair price for
wheat guaranteed him_, is the British farmer going to let down the land
to grass again when the war is over? The fair price for wheat will be
the point on which his decision will turn. When things have settled down
after the war, the fair price will be that at which the _average_ farmer
can profitably grow wheat, and such a price must be maintained--by
bounty, if necessary. It never can be too often urged on politicians and
electorate that they, who thwart a policy which makes wheat-growing firm
and profitable, are knocking nails in the coffin of their country. We
are no longer, and never shall again be, an island. The air is
henceforth as simple an avenue of approach as Piccadilly is to Leicester
Square. If we are ever attacked there will be no time to get our second
wind, unless we can feed ourselves. And since we are constitutionally
liable to be caught napping, we shall infallibly be brought to the
German heel next time, if we are not self-supporting. But if we are,
there will be no next time. An attempt on us will not be worth the cost.
Further, we are running to seed physically from too much town-life and
the failure of country stocks; we shall never stem that rot unless we
re-establish agriculture on a large scale. To do that, in the view of
nearly all who have thought this matter out, we must found our farming
on wheat; grow four-fifths instead of one-fifth of our supply, and all
else will follow.
In England and Wales 11,246,106 acres were arable land in 1917, and
15,835,375 permanent grass land. To reverse these figures, at least, is
the condition of security, perhaps even of existence in the present and
the only guarantee of a decent and safe future.