Natural and Political Observations ... upon the Bills of Mortality. By
John Graunt, citizen of London. London, 1662, 4to.[215]
This is a celebrated book, the first great work upon mortality. But the
author, going _ultra crepidam_, has attributed to the motion of the moon in
her orbit all the tremors which she gets from a shaky telescope.[216] But
there is another paradox about this book: the above absurd opinion is
attributed to that excellent mechanist, Sir William Petty, who passed his
days among the astronomers. Graunt did not write his own book! Anthony
Wood[217] hints that Petty "assisted, or put into a way" his old
benefactor: no doubt the two friends talked the matter over many a time.
Burnet and Pepys[218] state that Petty wrote the book. It is enough for me
that {114} Graunt, whose honesty was never impeached, uses the plainest
incidental professions of authorship throughout; that he was elected into
the Royal Society because he was the author; that Petty refers to him as
author in scores of places, and published an edition, as editor, after
Graunt's death, with Graunt's name of course. The note on Graunt in the
_Biographia Britannica_ may be consulted; it seems to me decisive. Mr.
C. B. Hodge, an able actuary, has done the best that can be done on the
other side in the _Assurance Magazine_, viii. 234. If I may say what is in
my mind, without imputation of disrespect, I suspect some actuaries have a
bias: they would rather have Petty the greater for their Coryphaeus than
Graunt the less.[219]
Pepys is an ordinary gossip: but Burnet's account has an animus which is of
a worse kind. He talks of "one Graunt, a Papist, under whose name Sir
William Petty[220] published his observations on the bills of mortality."
He then gives the cock without a bull story of Graunt being a trustee of
the New River Company, and shutting up the cocks and carrying off their
keys, just before the fire of London, by which a supply of water was
delayed.[221] It was one of the first objections made to Burnet's work,
that Graunt was _not_ a trustee at the time; and Maitland, the historian of
London, ascertained from the books of the Company that he was not admitted
until twenty-three days after the breaking out of the fire. Graunt's first
admission {115} to the Company took place on the very day on which a
committee was appointed to inquire into the cause of the fire. So much for
Burnet. I incline to the view that Graunt's setting London on fire strongly
corroborates his having written on the bills of mortality: every practical
man takes stock before he commences a grand operation in business.