One must be very sure of the weather before undertaking the ascent of
Pelée; for if one merely selects some particular leisure day in
advance, one's chances of seeing anything from the summit are
considerably less than an astronomer's chances of being able to make a
satisfactory observation of the next transit of Venus. Moreover, if the
heights remain even partly clouded, it may not be safe to ascend the
Morne de la Croix,--a cone-point above the crater itself, and ordinarily
invisible below. And a cloudless afternoon can never be predicted from
the aspect of deceitful Pelée: when the crater edges are quite clearly
cut against the sky at dawn, you may be tolerably certain there will be
bad weather during the day; and when they are all bare at sundown, you
have no good reason to believe they will not be hidden next morning.
Hundreds of tourists, deluded by such appearances, have made the weary
trip in vain,--found themselves obliged to return without having seen
anything but a thick white cold fog. The sky may remain perfectly blue
for weeks in every other direction, and Pelée's head remain always
hidden. In order to make a successful ascent, one must not wait for a
period of dry weather,--one might thus wait for years! What one must
look for is a certain periodicity in the diurnal rains,--a regular
alternation of sun and cloud; such as characterizes a certain portion of
the hivernage, or rainy summer season, when mornings and evenings are
perfectly limpid, with very heavy sudden rains in the middle of the day.
It is of no use to rely on the prospect of a dry spell. There is no
really dry weather, notwithstanding there recurs--in books--a _Saison de
la Sécheresse._ In fact, there are no distinctly marked seasons in
Martinique:--a little less heat and rain from October to July, a little
more rain and heat from July to October: that is about all the notable
difference! Perhaps the official notification by cannon-shot that the
hivernage, the season of heavy rains and hurricanes, begins on July
15th, is no more trustworthy than the contradictory declarations of
Martinique authors who have attempted to define the vague and illusive
limits of the tropic seasons. Still, the Government report on the
subject is more satisfactory than any: according to the "Annuaire,"
there are these seasons:--
1. _Saison fraîche._ December to March. Rainfall, about 475
millimeters.
2. _Saison chaude et sèche._ April to July. Rainfall, about 140
millimeters.
3. _Saison chaude et pluvieuse._ July to November. Rainfall average,
1121 millimeters.
Other authorities divide the _saison chaude et sèche_ into two periods,
of which the latter, beginning about May, is called the _Renouveau_; and
it is at least true that at the time indicated there is a great burst of
vegetal luxuriance. But there is always rain, there are almost always
clouds, there is no possibility of marking and dating the beginnings and
the endings of weather in this country where the barometer is almost
useless, and the thermometer mounts in the sun to twice the figure it
reaches in the shade. Long and patient observation has, however,
established the fact that during the hivernage, if the heavy showers
have a certain fixed periodicity,--falling at mid-day or in the heated
part of the afternoon,--Pelée is likely to be clear early in the
morning; and by starting before daylight one can then have good chances
of a fine view from the summit.