P.S. and very private.--I have seen a communication from Schwartzenberg
to Russia and Prussia, of the 19th December, the doctrine of which is
that Louis Napoleon has done a great service by putting down
parliamentaryism. That in many respects he is less dangerous than the
Orleans, or elder branch, because they have parliamentary leanings. That
no alteration of the existing parties must be permitted--and that an
attempt to assume an hereditary crown should be discouraged--but that
while it shows no aggressive propensities the policy of the Continent
ought to be to countenance him, and _isoler_ l'Angleterre, as a _foyer_
of constitutional, that is to say, anarchical, principles.
Bunsen tells me that in October his King was privately asked whether he
was ready to destroy the Prussian Constitution--and that he peremptorily
refused.
Look at an article on the personal character of Louis Napoleon in the
'Times' of Monday. It is by R----, much built out of my conversation and
Z.'s letters.
I have begged Mr. Esmeade to call on you--you will like him. He is a
nephew of Sir John Moore.
[2]Kensington, March 19, 1852.
My dear Tocqueville,--I was very glad to see your hand again--though
there is little in French affairs on which liberals can write with
pleasure.
Ours are become very interesting. Lord John's declaration, at the meeting
the other day in Chesham Place, that he shall introduce a larger reform,
and surround himself with more advanced adherents, and Lord Derby's, on
Monday, that he is opposed to all democratic innovation, appear to me to
have changed the position of parties. The question at issue is no longer
Free-trade or Protection. Protection is abandoned. It is dead, never to
revive. Instead of it we are to fight for Democracy, or Aristocracy. I
own that my sympathies are with Aristocracy: I prefer it to either
Monarchy or Democracy. I know that it is incident to an aristocratic
government that the highest places shall be filled by persons chosen not
for their fitness but for their birth and connections, but I am ready to
submit to this inconvenience for the sake of its freedom and stability.
I had rather have Malmesbury at the Foreign Office, and Lord Derby first
Lord of the Treasury, than Nesselrode or Metternich, appointed by a
monarch, or Cobden or Bright, whom I suppose we should have under a
republic. But above all, I am for the winning horse. If Democracy is to
prevail I shall join its ranks, in the hope of making its victory less
mischievous.
I wish, however, that the contest had not been forced on. We were very
well, before Lord John brought in his Reform Bill, which nobody called
for, and I am not at all sure that we shall be as well after it has
passed.
As to the immediate prospects of the Ministry, the next three weeks may
change much, but it seems probable that they will be forced to dissolve
in April, or the beginning of May, that the new Parliament will meet in
July, and that they will be turned out about the end of August. And that
this time next year we shall be discussing Lord John's new Reform Bill.
I doubt whether our fears of invasion are exaggerated. At this instant,
without doubt, Louis Napoleon is thinking of nothing but the Empire; and
is kind to Belgium, and pacific to Switzerland in the hope of our
recognition.
But I heard yesterday from Lord Hardinge that 25,000 men are at
Cherbourg, and that 25,000 more are going there--and that a large sum is
devoted to the navy. We know that he governs _en conspirateur_, and this
is likely to extend to his foreign as well as his civil relations.
I see a great deal of Thiers, who is very agreeable and very _triste_.
'L'exil,' he says, 'est très-dur.' Rémusat seems to bear it more
patiently. We hear that we are to have Cousin.
What are your studies in the Bibliothèque Royale? I have begun to read
Bastide, and intend to make the publication of my lectures on Political
Economy my principal literary pursuit. I delivered the last on Monday.
I shall pass the first fifteen days of April in Brussels, with my old
friend Count Arrivabene, 7 Boulevard du Régent.
* * * * *
Ever yours,