Dear _Mr. Punch_,--I cannot for the life of me understand why your
contemporaries should be in such difficulties over the above question
or how it is that they arrive at such diverse estimates. The elements
of the problem are perfectly straightforward. I worked it out on the
back of my ticket in the Tube last night, and as there can be no doubt
whatever about my conclusions I think they ought to be published.
The present population of Germany for popular purposes (as they always
say) is 70,000,000. All the evidence goes to show that the war is still
popular in Germany, or parts of it, so we may accept that figure. Very
well. Of these, 33,000,000 are males. It seems a good many, but we
shall soon begin to whittle it down. By examining the figures of the
different "age groups" we find that fully five million of these are
under the age of seven and as quite a number are over sixty and others
are incapacitated--we have no space to enter into all these complicated
calculations here--we shall not be far wrong if we deduct at the outset
about 21,175,000 under these heads. This leaves us in round figures
twelve million.
We now come to the question of losses up to date; and here we must
proceed with caution, for it is above all important to be on the safe
side. The present German losses are computed by the best authorities
at about two million, from all causes, up to 3 P.M. on the
13th ult. From this we must deduct, however, all those who, after being
wounded, have returned to the firing-line--say, half a million. Also
all those who, having been wounded a second time, have returned to the
front,--say, three hundred thousand. Also all those who have been three
times wounded and have still gone back to fight--say, fifty thousand.
Then again we must remember those who have been invalided home and
recovered, and those who have been missing and are found again. And
there are the men who have been erroneously reported as prisoners,
owing to the Germans' incorrigible habit of exaggerating the number of
their own troops who have fallen into the enemy's hands.
After all these deductions we may safely put the revised German losses
at 750,000. This should be taken off the twelve million eligible; but
it would, I think, be wise (in order to keep always on the safe side)
to add it on. This gives us 12,750,000. Very well.
But the industries of the country must be carried on. There are the
railways, agriculture, mining. Let us say five million for these. There
are those great industries without which a nation cannot wage war;
for instance, the makers of Iron Crosses (100,000), the custodians of
ships retained in harbour (50,000), the printers of picture-postcards
(50,000), the writers of Hate-hymns, besides sundry makers of armaments
and things.
Counting all those in and keeping on the safe side and dealing only
with round figures for popular purposes we may conclude that anything
from one to nine million must be deducted from our last figure to
arrive at a final estimate.
To sum up, Germany's war strength cannot be more than three million or
less than eleven. This gives us a clear idea of what we have to face.
I enclose my card in case you should think me an amateur, and have the
honour to remain,
Yours faithfully,
STATISTICIAN.
* * * * *
_Men we do not introduce to the Duke of WESTMINSTER_ I.--The
German Minister of Finance: Dr. HELFFERICH.
* * * * *
[Illustration: THE RETURN OF THE RAIDER.