NEW THEORY OF POPULATION.

The idea of Mr Malthus, that population has a tendency to increase

faster than the means of subsistence, unless some powerful and obvious

checks be interposed to keep down the race to the level of subsistence,

has been recently met by Mr Doubleday with a denial and an effort

at refutation. From an article by Mr Hickson in the last number of

the 'Westminster Review,' we learn that Mr Doubleday endeavours to

show grounds for believing that, while there are powerful tendencies

to increase beyond the limits of subsistence, there are likewise

tendencies to a decrease, which must result in preserving what may be

called a balance between the quantity of food and the number of people.

Mankind, from Adam downwards to our own day, have gone forward and

backward in numbers by a series of fits and starts--they have by no

means been going on as a constantly-increasing quantity. Look at the

countries in the East mentioned in the Bible--Egypt, Judæa, Asia Minor,

Persia, Assyria. Once densely peopled, they are now either desolate, or

inhabited by a poor decaying remnant of the proud races which formerly

inhabited them. Egypt would soon expire as a nation if not constantly

recruited by fresh arrivals from abroad. Neither China nor India is so

populous as it was two thousand years ago. The cultivated aboriginal

races of America, who left monuments of their greatness, long since

disappeared, and were succeeded by tribes of Indians, who are now

rapidly disappearing. The history of the world presents many other

instances of an entire disappearance of populations.

No doubt war, pestilence, famine, vice, and misery, have all played an

important part in sweeping away nations, or in reducing the numbers

of their people; but Mr Doubleday holds it to be demonstrable that

redundancy of population is prevented in a less continuous degree by

these causes, than by one which Malthus altogether overlooks--one, in

fact, which militates against his theory. The mention of this check,

which is only of recent discovery, will come upon most persons as a

surprise: it is _comfort_--easy circumstances, allied with cultivated

feeling; and, to all appearance, the easier the circumstances, the less

the increase. Mr Doubleday thinks it would not perhaps be going too

far to say, that by carrying these influences a certain length, the

race might become extinct. As proof, he refers to the gradual dying

out of families among the aristocracy and baronetage--two orders of

persons who, above all others, might be expected to be prolific in

descendants:--

'Thus it has been,' proceeds this writer, 'that the peerage of

England, instead of being old, is recent; and the baronetage,

though comparatively of modern origin, equally so. In short,

few, if any, of the Norman nobility, and almost as few of the

original baronets' families of King James I., exist at this

moment; and but for perpetual creations, both orders must have

been all but extinct. * * * Of James I.'s creation in A.D.

1611, only _thirteen families_ now remain; a decay certainly

extraordinary, and not to be accounted for upon the ordinary

ideas of mortality and power of increase amongst mankind.'

Commenting on these facts, the reviewer observes:--'Several

instances from humbler, but still wealthy, or at least

comfortable classes of society, are given by Mr Doubleday,

tending to the same conclusion, that an ample provision of the

means of subsistence does not necessarily act as a stimulus

to population, but often seems to have a directly contrary

tendency; as if ease and abundance were the real check of

population, and a certain amount of poverty and privation

were essential to any considerable increase. Thus he mentions

the case of the free burgesses of the wealthy corporation of

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, a body, in 1710, of about 1800, possessing

estates and endowments, and exclusive privileges, amply

sufficient to protect every individual among them from want;

and shows that, although all the sons of every citizen were

free by birth, their numbers would have diminished had they

not been recruited from without; and that, even with the aid

of contested elections, when freemen by purchase were admitted

for the sake of votes, the entire body of burgesses remained

nearly stationary for upwards of a century. This, too, while

the poorer corporation of Berwick-upon-Tweed doubled the number

of its free citizens during the same period.

'The examples of the corporation of Durham and Richmond in

Yorkshire are adduced to the same effect; but we need not go

so far north for corroborative evidence of the same class of

facts. In the corporation of London, all the children of a

citizen, whether male or female, enjoy the right of freedom by

inheritance; and as many of the exclusive privileges of this

body have not yet been done away, women still exercise in the

city various avocations in their own name (such, for instance,

as the trade of a town carman), from which the rest of the

inhabitants of the metropolis, non-freemen, are excluded.

Until recently, the freedom of the corporation of London

was essential to a share in the administration of revenues

amounting to upwards of a million per annum, and is still

indispensable to a large portion of them. We may reasonably

conclude that it was an object of some importance to the

ancient citizens of London to keep the patronage connected

with such large funds in their own hands, or to leave it in

the hands of their own posterity. This object, however, has

been so entirely defeated, that if we now inquire into the

origin of the present holders of the good things in the gift

of the London corporation and the trading companies, we find

they are nearly all north countrymen, who have elbowed their

way into the city from Scotland or the provinces, and that the

descendants of such men as Sir William Walworth and Sir Thomas

Gresham are nowhere to be found.

'During the forty years from 1794 to 1833, the admissions by

patrimony to the freedom of the corporation of London were only

7794 out of a total of 40,221 admitted--a third of the number

having been strangers who purchased their freedom, and one-half

sons of strangers obtaining their freedom by apprenticeship.'

Mr Doubleday's explanation of these phenomena is to the effect, that it

is not misery, but comfort, which deadens the principle of increase.

It is notorious that the poorest parents have, as a general rule, the

greatest number of children. Only feed people on potatoes and salt,

oatmeal-porridge, or any other plain fare, and let them at the same

time maintain a struggle to get even that, and sure enough their

firesides, or the places where the fire should be, will be garnished

by as plenteous a crop of youngsters as you could wish to behold! How

these children are fed it is often so difficult to comprehend, that

one is almost driven to the conclusion that they somehow live and have

strength to romp about on the mere element--fresh air. It is very clear

that nature abhors all sorts of codling and pampering:--

'It is a fact, admitted by all gardeners as well as botanists,'

says Mr Doubleday, 'that if a tree, plant, or flower be placed

in a mould either naturally or artificially made too rich for

it, a plethoric state is produced, and fruitfulness ceases. In

trees, the effect of strong manures and over-rich soils is,

that they run to superfluous wood, blossom irregularly, and

chiefly at the extremities of the outer branches, and almost,

or entirely, cease to bear fruit. With flowering shrubs and

flowers the effect is, first, that the flower becomes double,

and loses its power of producing seed; next, it ceases almost

even to flower. If the application of the stimulus of manure

is carried still further, flowers and plants become diseased

in the extreme, and speedily die; thus, by this wise provision

of Providence, the transmission of disease (the certain

consequence of the highly-plethoric state, whether in plants,

animals, or in mankind) is guarded against, and the species

shielded from danger on the side of plenty. In order to remedy

this state when accidentally produced, gardeners and florists

are accustomed, by various devices, to produce the opposite,

or deplethoric state; this they peculiarly denominate "giving

a check." In other words, they put the species in danger in

order to produce a corresponding determined effort of nature to

insure its perpetuation--and the end is invariably attained.

Thus, in order to make fruit-trees bear plentifully, gardeners

delay, or impede, the rising of the sap, by cutting rings in

the bark round the tree. This, to the tree, is the production

of a state of depletion, and the abundance of fruit is the

effort of nature to counteract the danger. The fig, when grown

in this climate, is particularly liable to drop its fruit

when half-matured. This, gardeners now find, can be prevented

by pruning the tree so severely as to give it a check; or,

if grown in a pot, by cutting a few inches from its roots

all round, so as to produce the same effect. The result is,

that the tree retains, and carefully matures, its fruit. In

like manner, when a gardener wishes to save seed from a gourd

or cucumber, he does not give the plant an _extra_ quantity

of manure or warmth. He does just the contrary: he subjects

it to some _hardship_, and takes the fruit that is _least_

fine-looking, foreknowing it will be filled with seed whilst

the finest fruit are nearly destitute. Upon the same principle,

it is a known fact, that after severe and long winters, the

harvests are correspondingly rapid and abundant. Vines bear

most luxuriantly after being severely tried by frost; and grass

springs in the same extraordinary manner. After the long and

trying winter of 1836-37, when the snow lay upon the ground in

the northern counties until June, the spring of grass was so

wonderful as to cause several minute experiments by various

persons. The result was, that in a single night of twelve hours

the blade of grass was ascertained frequently to have advanced

full three-quarters of an inch; and wheat and other grain

progressed in a similar manner.'

It is shown by facts, that in the animal economy a low physical state,

of course along with air and exercise, is equally favourable. In

proportion, therefore, as conditions adverse to this simple principle

are encouraged, so will the ratio of increase be limited. Indulgent

idleness, want of out-door exercise, codling with cordials, dosing

with medicines, tight-lacing, late hours, mental excitement, and fifty

other things, induce the physical weakness and irritability which

renders the production of offspring an impossibility. Causes of this

kind, operating along with those artificial restraints, the validity

of which Malthus is so far right in recognising, are mainly concerned

in keeping population within bounds. It would then appear, that so

long as there is an abject, struggling poor, ignorant and ill-fed,

there will be a vigorous growth, a dangerous population--dangerous,

because redundant as respects their capacity and will to work. On the

other hand, by an universal spread of education, by the cultivation of

rational tastes and habits, and by the simple mode of living which such

tastes would engender, there will ensue something like a medium between

a relatively-redundant and a comparative extinction of population.

Chambers's Edinburgh Journal, No. 306 New Series, Saturday, November 10, 1849 · 第 12 / 24 题